Canucks vs Maple Leafs 02/06/21 – Odds and NHL Betting Trends
3 years ago
by OddsShark (@OddsShark) – Sponsored Post
The Toronto Maple Leafs’ so-so results as a big home favourite might be superseded by the Vancouver Canucks’ tendency to get into wide-open games.
The Maple Leafs are -190 favourites and the Vancouver Canucks are +165 underdogs with a 6.5-goal total on the NHL odds for Saturday at sportsbooks monitored by OddsShark.com. Toronto is just 10-7 in its last 17 home games (regular-season only) as a moneyline favourite of -170 to -210, with the OVER hitting in nine of those matchups.
Canucks vs Maple Leafs | OddsShark Matchup Report
Vancouver is 8-12 in its last 20 away games as a +150 to +200 underdog, with the OVER hitting at online betting sites in six of their last nine away games where their price fell in that range. Head-to-head, the Maple Leafs are 5-1 in their last six games against the Canucks where they were favoured.
Toronto defeated Vancouver 7-3 on Thursday, marking the first time in eight matchups where the OVER hit while the Maple Leafs were favoured. They host the Canucks again on Monday.
The Canucks, who are 6-8-0, seem to have one defining dubious distinction. Natural Stat Trick rates Vancouver first in the 31-team NHL in high-danger scoring chances (114) in the five-on-five phase, but they are also dead last in the most allowed (134) by a considerable margin. That seems hard to correct in a day while a team is on the road, so the Canucks’ hopes might rest largely on Bo Horvat, Elias Pettersson and Quinn Hughes going off for a peak offensive night.
Vancouver is 8-15-1 in its last 24 away games played on one day’s rest. At five-on-five, the Canucks are 29th in the 31-team NHL in their share of shot attempts (46.3 percent), 28th in shots for (46.0) and 20th (47.4) in high-danger chances. They are 12th in goal scoring (3.36 per game) and 30th in goals against (3.93), while boasting the 18th-ranked power play (16.3 percent) and 14th-ranked penalty killing unit (80.3).
Goaltender Thatcher Demko is 3-5-0 with a 3.81 goals-against average and .897 save percentage after being on the hook for 11 goals against in Vancouver’s last two starts. Demko is 0-2 with a 5.08 GAA and .848 save percentage in two career games against Toronto. It seems possible the Canucks could turn to Braden Holtby, who is 3-3-0 with a 3.63 GAA and .896 save percentage. Holtby is 10-5-1 with a 2.41 GAA and .924 save percentage in 17 career games against Toronto.
The Maple Leafs, whose 8-2-1 record leads the North Division, have had a tendency to relax at home. They are 9-8-4 in their last 21 home games played on one day’s rest. With that said, Thursday’s point night where Auston Matthews scored two goals and Jason Spezza scored three in his third-line role was fully earned.
Toronto had a season-most 2.87 expected goals in the five-on-five phase and only 1.00 expected goals against. The Maple Leafs’ share of both five-on-five shot attempts (51.8 percent) and shots for (51.3) ranks 11th in the NHL, although they are 21st (45.0) in share of high-danger chances. In the more traditional stats, they are third in goal scoring (3.64 per game) and 17th in goals against (2.91). Toronto’s power play is tied for first (40.0 percent) and the penalty killing unit ranks 23rd (75.6).
Frederik Andersen has made four consecutive starts and is 6-2-1 with a 3.01 GAA and .888 save percentage. The Maple Leafs’ No. 1 netminder, whose backup Michael Hutchinson has not seen any game action, is 11-2-5 with a 1.63 GAA and .939 save percentage in 18 career games against Vancouver.
After Monday’s series finale against Vancouver, the Maple Leafs visit the Montreal Canadiens on Wednesday for the first leg of a home-and-home series.
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