Dreger Updates His Leafs Trade Board, and More Kessel Chatter

So. Much. Leafs. Trade. Talk.

Darren Dreger of TSN has updated his now infamous Leafs Trade Board, with Daniel Winnik being a slam dunk 100% to be dealt before the deadline. Korbinian Holzer follows at 85%, while Tyler Bozak and Joffrey Lupul both clock in at a 60% chance at being dealt. Roman Polak, who’s had his name circulate quite a bit through trade chatter lately, is only a 40%.

One those last three players, Dreger expands: 

I suppose that means that, if not now, those players will still be available at the 2015 NHL Entry Draft. That makes some sense, as Bozak, Lupul and Polak all have more term and significantly more dollars attached to their contracts than the likes of Winnik and Holzer, two pending unrestricted free agents. In the offseason, when teams can go over the salary cap by as much as 10%, it will be easier to facilitate a move for more expensive players under contract.

Nazem Kadri and Jake Gardiner rated as 30% likely to be dealt is kind of interesting, as those are two players that could quite easily be a big part of your rebuild and post-rebuild teams. In this kind of situation, when a team is looking to dramatically overturn their roster, I suppose it makes some sense that Kadri and Gardiner would be available. That being said, the return better be significant if either of them are dealt. 

Dion Phaneuf and Phil Kessel are both less-than-likely to be dealt at the deadline, but only 50% chance that either of them are dealt in the offseason? I thought that would have been higher.

The most interesting part of this chart though has to be James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier, who have a 20% and 30% chance of being dealt at either the deadline or in the offseason. That pretty much tells you exactly how the Leafs feel about their goaltending situation… they don’t know who their future #1 is.

Following the updating of his Trade Board, Dreger went on to expand on Kessel trade talk. Reportedly, the asking price will be a first round pick, a top prospect, and a young roster player. You know, the standard “Elite Talent” trade combo.

That being said, Dreger warns that if the Leafs are looking for that significant a package, they will need to entertain the idea of footing some of Kessel’s contract. This seems insane to me, in that Kessel is worth every single penny he’s worth, but it’s also important to understand that Kessel will more than likely be coveted by contending teams. And those guys generally don’t have $8M in cap space. Still, I’d do everything I can to not retain salary on a Kessel deal – it’d make much more sense for the Leafs to ask for that first round pick, top prospect, young roster player, and a salary dump.