Flortheast Division Previews: The Toronto Maple Leafs

The Toronto Maple Leafs have doubled down on Randy Carlyle hockey, a phrase that I will try to refrain to use but that I will no doubt come to loathe in the weeks to come, through their summer moves. Gone is Mikhail Grabovski so that Tyler Bozak could be re-signed, gone is cap flexibility and common sense so that the seemingly never-ending “David Clarkson is from Toronto and must sign there because he’s truculent!” saga could have the inevitable ending that was expected, and gone – at least for some – is the feeling of optimism that reigned when Nazem Kadri banged in Phil Kessel’s rebound and it seemed that despite the Leafs’ best efforts that they had stumbled onto their best lineup.

The team did improve their defence as Paul Ranger returned from wandering the proverbial Sinai after a successful season with the Marlies, Jake Gardiner will presumably be given a role commensurate with his prodigious talents (although Carlyle’s training camp comments do give one cause for concern), Carl Gunnarsson is hopefully healthy, Cody Franson was given a last minute reprieve from missing the entire preseason with yet another below market deal, and rookie Morgan Rielly will be given a chance to find a spot on the blue line. It has become a tired refrain but the Leafs’ defence DOES actually look pretty good on paper. 

Up front, the Leafs are deep on the wings with Joffrey Lupul, Phil Kessel, and James Van Riemsdyk probably all cracking 30 goals in healthy seasons while David Clarkson and Nikolai Kulemin at least have a passing familiarity with the target although the former may forget that during his moronically earned ten-game vacation to start the season. Mason Raymond will have a chance to show that he still possesses some semblance of the things known as ‘hands’ if there are injuries, otherwise his ‘wheels’ can provide defensive help. The Leafs hilariously decided to weaken themselves talent-wise down the middle by keeping Tyler Bozak over Grabovski thus freeing up some cap space to make the Clarkson mistake but McClement and new arrival David Bolland will hopefully provide some defensive steel to the spine of the team. Nazem Kadri will carry the heavy burden of meeting offensive output expectations as Bozak weighs down his best buddy Kessel. God forbid any of the centres gets injured since the thin backups got even thinner with the departure of Joe Colborne for Calgary. Who’s next if there is an injury? Greg McKegg? God help us.

In net, the Leafs made what is likely a marginal upgrade although the best case for the Leafs may be hoping that James Reimer tanks or is injured so that at least the Bernier trade can be wholly justified in hindsight. This is a position of strength for the Leafs and it’ll have to be outstanding if they are to make the playoffs.

Unfortunately, you can only play one goalie at a time. So, if Reimer continues to be as good as he has shown that he can be then he’ll probably play 55-60 games. That leaves 20-25 games for Jonathan Bernier (career .912 sv%) that would have gone to Ben Scrivens (career .910 sv%). If you tally up how many shots they’re likely to face over those games (32.5 SA/G last year for about 808 shots) then that difference over their career numbers would represent *drum roll please* two goals. The major belief of course is that Bernier’s pedigree weighs much more heavily than their shared AHL background. The gap grows if you change your assumptions like if you think that Bernier matches last year’s save percentage of .922 then that’s a difference of 8 goals (6 represents a win) and now maybe the cost of acquiring Jonathan Bernier represents value.

Kulemin looks like he is going to get a chance to start the year with Nazem Kadri which will hopefully help somewhat his arrest the slide in his shots per game figure. His shooting percentage won’t likely hit the heady heights of 17.3% from his 30-goal year but at last year’s number of 9.7% I think 12 goals is achievable especially considering he’s likely to be used in a strong defensive role. Clarkson on the other hand generates shots like crazy which is a good thing but he’ll miss the first 10 games of the season because he is an idiot which is a bad thing. At the season ticket holder event – I was snuck in, I’m no moneybags – Nonis said they don’t pay Clarkson to score 30 which is a good thing because he probably won’t. If it’s a lucky year shooting percentage and health-wise, maybe he sniffs 25. If not, he’ll struggle for 15. I’m taking the under because I’ve already had my heart broken too many times.

Until Bozak is injured or suspended. 0.