Good Coach Hunting

We are still within the first few days of the post Carlyle
era and damn it still feels so good. I mean, he was awful. Historically bad
possession numbers, historical game seven collapse, and he successfully ran
MacArthur, Grabovski, and Kulemin out of town without receiving a return on any
of those players. Thankfully he was shown the door before Kadri, Gardiner, and
Reimer suffered a similar fate to those previously mentioned players.

There is a correct notion out there that you can’t really do
any worse than Carlyle, but attached to that there is also the sentiment that
the Leafs should fill their coaching vacancy now and boldly move forward in a
lackluster attempt at making the playoffs. While I appreciate the feeling that
this team has been directionless long enough and need to take on a new (sigh)
identity under a new coach, it seems irresponsible to make one of the most
important organizational decisions at a time when the job candidate pool is at
its most limited. Even NHL assistants, AHL, CHL, NCAA, and European coaches who
would jump at the opportunity to get a gig in the NHL cannot at this time, so
reasonable non-Babcock options like Brad Shaw, Don Hay, Guy Boucher, and of
course, Davis Payne are off limits. Instead you’re picking from Dallas Eakins,
Dan Byslma, and Pete DeBoer, and a handful of others, who albeit might not be
bad options, but in many cases were equally good options when they were passed
over for the job at the time of Randy Carlyle’s extension.

There is also the issue of the patchwork approach to the
Leafs. This is a favourite point of Bryan Hayes on Leafs Lunch, and I think
he’s right to point it out as frequently as possible. The Leafs had a coach who
didn’t pick his assistants, a coach who was extended by the GM, but was hired
by the previous one, a president who didn’t pick his GM and is now going to be
reporting to a CEO who didn’t hire him, and an ownership group that essentially
hates each other and has little interest in the team outside of the revenue it
generates. 

All along these transitions the Leafs have also attempted to bring
in players to fit Brian Burke’s, Ron Wilson’s, and Randy Carlyle’s philosophy
and have been left with a roster that isn’t best equipped for any particular
system of play. So with that in mind, should the Leafs address what to do with
Dave Nonis before moving forward first in an attempt to finally get some
synergy between the President, GM, and Coach? Does Brendan Shanahan take
complete ownership of coach hiring and feel comfortable replacing the GM after
the fact? Or is Dave Nonis in fact, Shanahan’s guy moving forward? 

This would
be nice to know sooner rather than later, and hopefully roster changes will
halt until some of that direction is set, or at the very least roster changes
be limited to shedding cap space and acquiring futures. Moving Kessel or
Phaneuf in a time of uncertainty could be doing a future coach a great
disservice, but the time has never been better for moving out Lupul, Bozak, and
possibly van Riemsdyk or Komarov for improved returns. Expendable UFAs like
Santorelli and Winnik should be no brainers as well.

One of the things that irked me in the previous Leafs
coaching replacements was that they brought in coaches to fix an existing
probably. Defence sucks, Carlyle is a defensive coach (by defensive coach I
assume it is meant his team is permanently trapped in their own end), and he’ll
fix Ron Wilson’s broken penalty kill. I will admit to some initial excitement
with Carlyle when defencemen were finally allowed to have just one hand on the stick
and for a brief moment fronting disappeared. Rather than count cup rings and
see who is best to fix the problems the Leafs are currently facing, it might be
best to look at which coach brings with him the tools for actually implementing
successful systems with players that the Leafs can reasonably acquire. Or
perhaps bring in a coach that can explain in the interview process how he can
make the most of the current rosters skill set without asking each player for a
complete overhaul of their game.

Looking at timelines for the Leafs, you’d hope that a
decision on Nonis is made somewhere between now and ideally before the trade
deadline. If Nonis isn’t the GM when the season ends, I’d hope for a permanent
incumbent to be in place by the end of May, this is largely because you need
your free agent and draft ducks in a row, but also so a coaching search can
also be completed prior to those events and there can be some awareness of the
kind of players the coach would like to have on their roster. A coaching search
is best suited for a May to mid June window. Junior and European leagues have
wrapped up, and the coaches who missed the playoffs or suffered early playoff
exits have been fired. The worthwhile candidates you’d be waiting on in
mid-June are Assistant Coaches on Stanley Cup finalists and would be the only
acceptable reason for pushing recruitment later.

As long as the Leafs avoid rush decisions, don’t go for the
patchwork approach of having a coach not selected by their 2015-16 GM, make the
hire purely off of addressing deficiencies in the Carlyle era, or remained
handcuffed by cap and stuck with most of their current roster they should be
fine. A lot of this is easier said than done, especially in a market still
focused on a run to the playoffs this season and hell-bent on seeing the other
shoe drop as soon as possible . A step back would be nice. Brendan Shanahan
seems to be applying a thoughtful approach to assessing this team, not the
retoolings we’ve become accustom to, but really firing Randy Carlyle was the
easiest part. Finding a coach for a market that has Pat Burns and Pat Quinn as
the standard will be a challenge, and candidates like Pete DeBoer or Dallas
Eakins won’t meet expectations.

Thankfully for whoever the new bench boss is they’ll have
William Nylander on their team next season and he’s going to fix everything.