How Bad Is The Bleeding?

 

Dion Phaneuf’s two game suspension has only added gasoline to a raging fire. That fire, of course, is the debate over just how bad the Leafs shot woes are. As we’ve all heard about a thousand times, Toronto is close to taking the fewest shots per game in the league, give up the most by a good chunk, and have one of the worst differentials in recorded NHL history. Some will yell "shot quality" and dismiss this as no big deal. Some will pull out a heap of advanced stastics and show that there is no good precedent for results like these. 

I’m going to keep this short and sweet, and we won’t get fancy with our stats. This is how bad the Leafs are at allowing shots.

These are the 19 teams that have given up the most shots in a season since 1987-88, the first year where logs became available for every game played in the NHL, with this year’s Leafs roster thrown in for fun.

Lets make every team play 82 games, bringing up the 80’s, down the 84’s, and putting the Leafs on equal footing.

Yes, the Toronto Maple Leafs are on pace to give up more shots in 82 games than any team in recorded NHL history. The situation isn’t just "worrisome", it’s "catastrophically bad". When you consider that they’re also on pace to take 855 fewer shots than they allow (2192), it gets impressively absurd.

Whether or not you believe the Leafs don’t have to consistently outshoot teams if they focus on quality, this is too much of a disparity to make any sense. Yet, despite recent struggles, it’s still kind of working.

Looking at the other adjusted stats, this year’s Leafs are on pace for the second best regular season results out of any team on this list, one of three to cross over the 90 point mark. Sure, they aren’t the 1995/96 Pittsburgh Penguins, but that team included Mario Lemieux scoring 60 goals in 69 games, and Jaromir Jagr notching a career high 149 points. What is making this survivable?

Pretty simply, it’s the goaltending.

Out of any starting or backup goaltender on this list, James Reimer and Jonathan Bernier have the best and second best save percentages. Many come from different eras, but even with that considered, Toronto’s team average compared to the league average is still the third best disparity of the bunch.

Topping the list are the 1992/93 St. Louis Blues, who had Curtis Joseph in net for 68 games. For those old enough to remember, this was the year he had a 61 save performance in a 2-1 playoff double overtime loss to the Leafs (featuring a certain goal). His following year was equally impressive, only bogged down by backup Jim Hrivnak’s horrendous 4-10-0 record and 0.877 save percentage. 

Also ahead are a prime Tomas Vokoun and a "coming out party" Craig Anderson on the 2008/09 Panthers. amazingly, that team barely missed the playoffs, losing the 8th spot to Montreal on a tiebreaker.

The general rule you see in this list? Good goaltending was what kept these bad defensive teams alive. Of all the teams that managed even a 75 point pace, only one had a below-average save percentage (the 92/93 Kings, who went to the Stanley Cup Finals on Wayne Gretzky’s stick and back). 

I’m not offering you a solution to the Leafs’ problems here. That will be something for another article. However, the Leafs’ shots-against woes are beyond bad and into historically embarrassing.  it may be time to petition for a goaltending duo to share a Hart Trophy.