Know Your Enemy: Buying High, Selling Low

It seems insane to think that just 17 months ago, the Senators were one goal away from the Stanley Cup Finals. Since then, they’ve divebombed to the fourth overall pick, lost their franchise player, and it seemed like every other week, they were making headlines for some internal problem.

You probably didn’t need me to remind you that, since it seems like everybody has mentioned that at some point over the summer. But, it’s still fun to bring up.

For me, it all went downhill with the Matt Duchene trade. Don’t get me wrong, Matt Duchene is a very good player. But, he wasn’t a massive upgrade at the first line centre position over Kyle Turris, especially considering they gave up Turris, their 1st, 3rd, Shane Bowers, and Andrew Hammond to make that upgrade. The first round pick alone wasn’t worth it, especially since they have the potential to be the worst team in the league this season, so it looks like they’re giving up a high end lottery pick, but they also gave away three other assets.

This all started because the team didn’t really know what kind of team it was when it went to the Conference finals in 2017.

The 2016-17 Ottawa Senators had a 5v5 CF% of 48.35, which was the second worst among playoff teams, with the New York Rangers being the only worst team. So, their trip to the playoffs alone was a fluke. But their path to the conference finals was gifted to them. The first round saw them play a really good Bruins team, but that team was decimated with injuries. The second round saw them play that Rangers team that was worse than them. And then they held out for seven games against the eventual Stanley Cup champions, thanks to Pittsburgh having no blueline that year.

They weren’t a terrible team by any means, but they weren’t one of the four best teams in the league.

Now, after a season like this, there are two ways you can go about it. You could be like the 2015 Calgary Flames, who had a very lucky season that got them to the second round, but instead of buying the hype, they only made moves when it seemed smart. Dougie Hamilton is on the market? Trade for him while the team has a low value of him. Michal Frolik is a free agent? Sign him to a reasonable deal to have some more possession driving forwards.

Or, you could be the 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs. You could buy the hype, and believe that you’re only a couple key pieces away from being a great team. So, you trade a 2nd and two 4ths for Dave Bolland. Sign David Clarkson to one of the worst contracts in the league. Buy out one of your better centers in Grabovski. Sign one of your worst centers in Bozak to a $4.2 AAV for 5 years. Let one of your better wingers in MacArthur walk for nothing. Then sign Dion Phaneuf to a 7 year, $7 million contract mid season.

Funny enough, the Leafs did way more dumb stuff that season than the Sens did in 2017. In fact, the Sens did nothing but let their free agents walk, lost Marc Methot to the expansion draft, and signed Johnny Oduya and Nate Thompson.

But, when they needed their problems solved, the Leafs had much better luck.

Dave Bolland ended up going to free agency, and signing a much worse deal with Florida (thanks Dale Tallon). Columbus came knocking on Toronto’s door to take Horton’s uninsured contract, and the Leafs used it to get rid of David Clarkson – no salary retained. Bozak didn’t end up being that bad, especially once a coach that knew how to use him properly in Mike Babcock came along. Dion Phaneuf got pump and dumped to Ottawa – no salary retained. Both Grabovski and MacArthur have had nothing but injury problems since they left, so those decisions don’t even look that bad in hindsight. The Leafs managed to get rid of their problems.

When the Sens had problems, no favours were made for them. They needed to trade Mike Hoffman because of internal problems, but didn’t want him in the division, so they traded him for pennies on the dollar to San Jose, who then traded him for a better return to Florida. Their franchise player wanted out, so they traded him for five or six terrible assets, thinking that it’s a win. Their two best remaining players in Mark Stone and Matt Duchene both have a year left, and it doesn’t seem like they want to stay, but it seems unlikely that they’ll get anything close to market value considering their other two trades.

But, still, I make the comparison to the 2013 Toronto Maple Leafs because it gives you an idea of where they were, and how far they’ve come. 2014-15 and 2015-16 were rebuild years that got you Mitch Marner and Auston Matthews. 2016-17 was their breakout year. 2017-18 was their dominant year. Suddenly, they’re looking good, and John Tavares wants to join in on the fun. Now, they’re cup contenders.

The big difference is that the Leafs got rid of most of their management that caused the wreckage. They played it smart and brought in a different group to reset the franchise. The Senators are currently trying to reset the franchise with the guys that destroyed it.

And I’m not just talking about Pierre Dorion, there’s a chance that he’s not bad, he’s just a yes man. Eugene Melnyk needs to leave before this team can go anywhere. If the team can’t spend, they can’t succeed, especially when Melnyk doesn’t want to spend any money at all, and he’s trying to hard to be too involved, even though his hockey IQ is terrible.

When the Leafs were bad, Brian Burke was the face of the franchise. Now the Leafs are good, and the faces of their franchise are Auston Matthews, John Tavares, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Morgan Rielly, you get the drift.

The face of the Sens franchise, especially with Karlsson gone, is Eugene Melnyk. You can’t succeed if the face of your team isn’t someone who’s on the ice.

The Sens may seem far away from anything close to success, but it’s not as bad as it seems, especially if the right people are running.

They just need the right people, and that’s the problem.