Leafs look to build on Thursday’s win tonight vs. Jets
3 years ago
To say this series hasn’t made Leafs Nation collectively age several decades this week would be an understatement. After falling short on Tuesday, it looked like the Winnipeg Hellebuyck’s… er, I mean Jets, had the Leafs on the ropes again until goals from William Nylander and Ilya Mikheyev got the Leafs ahead before the Jets tied it late, and Auston Matthews got the Leafs the win in overtime.
Despite the fact that the Jets have three of a possible four points in this series, the Leafs have been the better team in this series by far. Through the first two games, they’ve had 60.95% of the shot attempts, and 62.4% of the expected goals at even strength, clearly dictating the play. They just struggled to beat Connor Hellebuyck until that final 15 minutes of the third and overtime.
It shouldn’t be a surprise that the Leafs are doing this good in these games. Not only have the Leafs cemented themselves as the best team in this division, the Jets are also one of the worst despite their record. They have the second worst 5v5 CF% in the division (only 0.2% better than the Canucks), and they have the worst xGF% in the division. They really aren’t that good despite having the second best points percentage.
Will the Leafs find themselves getting goalied again, or will their dominance finally pay off?
Lineups
Toronto Maple Leafs
| LW | C | RW | Forwards |
|---|---|---|---|
 ZACH HYMAN Rating: 74.6#33 LW |  AUSTON MATTHEWS Rating: 82.3#6 C |  MITCH MARNER Rating: 76.6#18 RW | FL1 Rating Rating: 77.83#6 FL1 |
 JOE THORNTON Rating: 72.3#74 LW |  JOHN TAVARES Rating: 77.6#15 C |  WILLIAM NYLANDER Rating: 76.1#23 RW | FL2 Rating Rating: 75.31#7 FL2 |
 ILYA MIKHEYEV Rating: 74.0#42 LW |  ALEXANDER KERFOOT Rating: 70.8#113 C |  PIERRE ENGVALL Rating: 71.0#98 RW | FL3 Rating Rating: 71.95#14 FL3 |
 JIMMY VESEY Rating: 70.6#107 LW |  TRAVIS BOYD Rating: 70.4#124 C |  JASON SPEZZA Rating: 69.4#126 RW | FL4 Rating Rating: 70.15#22 FL4 |
| DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS | Defense | |
|---|---|---|
 MORGAN RIELLY Rating: 75.3#14 LD |  T.J. BRODIE Rating: 74.2#27 RD | DL1 Rating Rating: 74.76#15 DL1 |
 JAKE MUZZIN Rating: 75.1#17 LD |  JUSTIN HOLL Rating: 72.0#61 RD | DL2 Rating Rating: 73.56#12 DL2 |
 TRAVIS DERMOTT Rating: 71.7#83 LD |  ZACH BOGOSIAN Rating: 71.4#76 RD | DL3 Rating Rating: 71.56#20 DL3 |
Winnipeg Jets
| LW | C | RW | Forwards |
|---|---|---|---|
 PAUL STASTNY Rating: 74.8#36 LW |  MARK SCHEIFELE Rating: 76.8#19 C |  BLAKE WHEELER Rating: 76.3#22 RW | FL1 Rating Rating: 75.98#10 FL1 |
 KYLE CONNOR Rating: 79.5#5 LW |  PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS Rating: 74.6#38 C |  NIKOLAJ EHLERS Rating: 75.7#20 RW | FL2 Rating Rating: 76.61#2 FL2 |
 ANDREW COPP Rating: 72.5#60 LW |  ADAM LOWRY Rating: 69.2#149 C |  MASON APPLETON Rating: 69.5#123 RW | FL3 Rating Rating: 70.44#26 FL3 |
 MATHIEU PERREAULT Rating: 71.1#96 LW |  NATE THOMPSON Rating: 69.4#145 C |  TREVOR LEWIS Rating: 70.1#114 RW | FL4 Rating Rating: 70.20#20 FL4 |
| DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS | Defense | |
|---|---|---|
 JOSH MORRISSEY Rating: 74.1#29 LD |  TUCKER POOLMAN Rating: 71.6#74 RD | DL1 Rating Rating: 72.82#29 DL1 |
 DEREK FORBORT Rating: 70.5#109 LD |  NEAL PIONK Rating: 75.3#20 RD | DL2 Rating Rating: 72.92#16 DL2 |
 LOGAN STANLEY |  DYLAN DEMELO Rating: 71.8#69 RD | DL3 Rating Rating: 71.76#14 DL3 |
Leafs Player to Watch: William Nylander
You could argue that Nylander probably should have had five or six goals on Thursday the way he was playing, but I’m sure he’s more than just happy with the one he got. Still, he’s been all over the puck in this series, and if he keeps it up, he could get a lot more tonight. I’m feeling a hat trick, even though that probably doesn’t happen.
Jets Player to Watch: Nikolaj Ehlers
Like the player drafted right before him, Ehlers has been all over the puck for the Jets, and probably one of the few Jets that has actually been noticeable. On a team with a relatively overrated forward group (hey Mark Scheifele), Ehlers is one of the few that actually lives up to the hype.
Leafs Starting Goalie: Frederik Andersen
Despite his struggles this series, Andersen is back in the crease tonight, most likely because Campbell is still dealing with his injury. Freddie was better on Thursday, but there were still moments where he could’ve been better, especially in a game where the other goalie gave the Leafs nothing. Still, he has the third most wins in the NHL for a reason, and that’s because most nights he’s just good enough to give the amazing Leafs team in front of the win.
Jets Starting Goalie: Laurent Brossoit
You may be seeing this and be happy that Connor Hellebuyck isn’t in net, but in the six games he’s played so far this season, Brossoit has been just as good as Hellebuyck. It’s obviously a much smaller sample size, but don’t think this is going to be an easy game just because the Leafs don’t have to face the guy who had their number all series.
You can catch the game at 7pm tonight on Sportsnet.
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