LGD: Those Pesky Sabres
By Ryan Fancey
7 years agoWith a look at the remaining schedule for the Leafs – these next five games in seven days – you’d perhaps pencil tonight’s game as the most winnable, given the standings. But I’m probably not alone in being absurdly nervous about the prospect of Toronto getting two points in Buffalo this evening, especially with the way the Sabres handled the Leafs last Saturday in the same setting.
Divisional games are often tough, no matter how far apart the teams are points-wise. They’re even tougher when a group feels they’re being ridiculed, which is likely how the Sabres felt last weekend when all the talk around that matchup was about how many Leafs fans would be invading their arena to watch the visiting team try to seal up a playoff spot. The Sabres, and Jack Eichel specifically, seemed to take it personally, and humbled the Leafs pretty quickly.
Toronto is in somewhat of a better position entering tonight, as Buffalo comes in as a tired team on the second half of a back-to-back. I still fully expect the Sabres to give them a lot to handle.
These are two enormous points, and grabbing both would essentially lock things up for the blue-and-white, pushing them to greater than 99% to secure a playoff spot according to some probability models, and keeping them in the driver’s seat for 2nd in the division.
The Leafs
LW | C | RW |
---|---|---|
Zach Hyman | Auston Matthews | William Nylander |
Leo Komarov | Nazem Kadri | Connor Brown |
James van Riemsdyk | Tyler Bozak | Mitchell Marner |
Matt Martin | Brian Boyle | Kasperi Kapanen |
Defensive Pairings | |
---|---|
Morgan Rielly | Connor Carrick |
Jake Gardiner | Nikita Zaitsev |
Matt Hunwick | Roman Polak |
The Sabres
LW | C | RW |
---|---|---|
Evander Kane | Ryan O’Reilly | Tyler Ennis |
Brian Gionta | Jack Eichel | Sam Reinhart |
Marcus Foligno | Evan Rodrigues | Alex Nylander |
Will Carrier | Zemgus Girgensons | Matt Moulson |
Defensive Pairings | |
---|---|
Jake McCabe | Rasmus Ristolainen |
Josh Gorges | Cody Franson |
Zach Bogosian | Dmitry Kulikov |
The Sabres’ blue-line is atrocious, but that forward group again looks like a lot of trouble for the Leafs. It’s also worth noting that Young Nylander has been called up from Rochester, and will go up against brother Bill for the first time this regular season. Cody Franson is also set to return to the lineup, so that’s two goals for the Sabres from the outset.
Starting Goaltenders
Lehner (0.921 sv%) goes for the Sabres. Andersen (0.919) will get the net for Toronto, with McElhinney taking tomorrow night’s game against the Capitals.
Numbers
TOR | BUF | |
Points-Percentage | 0.591 | 0.487 |
Power Play | 24.2% (2nd) | 24.9% (1st) |
Penalty Kill | 83.0% (8th) | 77.4% (26th) |
Score-adjusted Corsi (5v5) | 51.0% (11th) | 47.0% (27th) |
Where to Watch
Game goes at 7:00pm EST at KeyBank Center, and will be nationally televised on Sportsnet.
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