“Magical Mikhail” – Zone-Adjusted Corsi for Leafs forwards
By Cam Charron
11 years agoIt’s rough collecting stray thoughts on a day like today, so our afternoon post at TLN will just be a bit of a data dump for the most part. Yesterday, I introduced the concept, I’m sure, of “zone-adjusted Corsi” to several readers. Corsi is basically a shot-differential statistic that measures puck possession.
Now, it isn’t a perfect system, but it gives us an indication of where the puck was when a player was on the ice. If there were a lot more shots in the Leafs’ favour when a player was on the ice, he’s doing something right to tilt the needle. But since players have different roles, we need to take a lot of things into account. You can’t just look at a player’s Corsi number and render the judgment.
One thing we’ve managed to do is value shifts starting in the defensive or offensive zone a certain way. Players who start a lot at the wrong end of the rink, like Dave Steckel, you need to take that into account when you’re looking at their Corsi number. For other players, like Mikhail Grabovski, they play against good quality competition. As Not Norm Ullman posts on our post for defence yesterday, sometimes you need to take into account the quality of teammates.
Anyway, the method was outlined yesterday. We looked at the numbers offered at Behind the Net, slightly adjusted Corsi numbers depending on whether players started shifts in the offensive or defensive zone, and will add the player’s quality of competition (Rel QoC) in a separate column for reference, along with goals for and against per 60 minutes on the ice.
NAME | GP | TOI/60 | ZAC | Rel QoC | GF | GA |
David Steckel | 76 | 10.15 | 3.7 | 0.38 | 1.32 | 2.41 |
Phiippe Dupuis | 30 | 7.95 | 2.8 | -0.59 | 0.00 | 0.76 |
Mike Brown | 50 | 8.61 | 2.7 | -0.18 | 0.98 | 2.23 |
Nazem Kadri | 21 | 12.32 | 1.8 | -0.07 | 2.55 | 1.86 |
Joe Colborne | 10 | 12.61 | 0.5 | -0.89 | 3.33 | 2.38 |
Joey Crabb | 67 | 11.68 | -1.5 | 0.14 | 2.30 | 2.38 |
Mikhail Grabovski | 74 | 14.78 | -2.1 | 0.69 | 2.80 | 2.74 |
Matt Frattin | 56 | 12.37 | -2.4 | 0.29 | 2.25 | 2.34 |
Nikolai Kulemin | 70 | 12.88 | -3.9 | 0.89 | 2.53 | 2.53 |
Tim Connolly | 70 | 12.99 | -5.3 | 0.43 | 2.31 | 3.17 |
Matthew Lombardi | 62 | 11.68 | -6.3 | -0.11 | 1.91 | 3.48 |
Clarke MacArthur | 73 | 13.61 | -6.7 | 0.72 | 2.66 | 2.54 |
Phil Kessel | 82 | 16.09 | -6.8 | 0.34 | 3.14 | 3.46 |
Joffrey Lupul | 66 | 14.94 | -7.8 | 0.51 | 3.59 | 3.77 |
Colby Armstrong | 29 | 8.95 | -8.2 | 0.15 | 0.92 | 2.77 |
Colton Orr | 5 | 4.48 | -8.4 | -3.38 | 2.68 | 0.00 |
Tyler Bozak | 73 | 14.82 | -9.0 | 0.34 | 2.94 | 3.44 |
Carter Ashton | 15 | 10.37 | -16.2 | -0.51 | 0.00 | 3.86 |
Ryan Hamilton | 2 | 13.13 | -28.3 | -0.14 | 2.28 | 4.57 |
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