Maple Leafs Pregame #20: 5 Things to Watch for against the Islanders
By Jon Steitzer
4 years agoIt’s game 20, that world point when we stop complaining about sample size and can start embracing the stats we’ve seen throughout the year. It’s like nerdy Christmas, so I hope you all enjoy reading about High Danger scoring chances and the Leafs struggles with expected goals, because we’ll be churning out a lot more of that content now that we’re at 20 games.
Frankly the debates around team toughness were a great way to fill the void, but now it’s Stats SZN.
Oh yeah, and John Tavares is playing against the Islanders and Zach Hyman is returning. Fun.
Lineups
LW | C | RW | Forwards |
---|---|---|---|
ANDREAS JOHNSSON Rating: 73.9#44 LW | AUSTON MATTHEWS Rating: 80.1#7 C | WILLIAM NYLANDER Rating: 73.5#44 RW | FL1 Rating Rating: 75.83#14 FL1 |
ZACH HYMAN Rating: 73.6#61 LW | JOHN TAVARES Rating: 78.7#11 C | KASPERI KAPANEN Rating: 72.8#54 RW | FL2 Rating Rating: 75.05#10 FL2 |
ILYA MIKHEYEV Rating: 74.4#34 LW | ALEXANDER KERFOOT Rating: 72.7#92 C | TREVOR MOORE Rating: 70.9#110 RW | FL3 Rating Rating: 72.66#12 FL3 |
NIC PETAN Rating: 72.0#113 LW | NICK SHORE Rating: 70.8#138 C | FREDERIK GAUTHIER Rating: 68.8#114 RW | FL4 Rating Rating: 70.50#26 FL4 |
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS | Defense | |
---|---|---|
MORGAN RIELLY Rating: 76.8#8 LD | CODY CECI Rating: 71.7#83 RD | DL1 Rating Rating: 74.24#17 DL1 |
JAKE MUZZIN Rating: 75.2#18 LD | TYSON BARRIE Rating: 75.5#20 RD | DL2 Rating Rating: 75.38#1 DL2 |
TRAVIS DERMOTT Rating: 72.9#65 LD | JUSTIN HOLL Rating: 73.2#49 RD | DL3 Rating Rating: 73.03#14 DL3 |
LW | C | RW | Forwards |
---|---|---|---|
ANDERS LEE Rating: 73.8#45 LW | MATHEW BARZAL Rating: 76.8#25 C | JORDAN EBERLE Rating: 74.4#32 RW | FL1 Rating Rating: 75.01#20 FL1 |
ANTHONY BEAUVILLIER Rating: 72.1#75 LW | BROCK NELSON Rating: 74.7#46 C | JOSH BAILEY Rating: 73.8#38 RW | FL2 Rating Rating: 73.53#18 FL2 |
MICHAEL DAL COLLE Rating: 71.0#108 LW | DERICK BRASSARD Rating: 70.1#105 C | LEO KOMAROV Rating: 69.1#133 RW | FL3 Rating Rating: 70.08#29 FL3 |
ROSS JOHNSTON Rating: 71.5#93 LW | CASEY CIZIKAS Rating: 71.4#123 C | CAL CLUTTERBUCK Rating: 70.1#106 RW | FL4 Rating Rating: 70.99#15 FL4 |
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGS | Defense | |
---|---|---|
ADAM PELECH Rating: 73.9#41 LD | RYAN PULOCK Rating: 75.4#21 RD | DL1 Rating Rating: 74.66#14 DL1 |
NICK LEDDY Rating: 75.1#19 LD | JOHNNY BOYCHUK Rating: 74.0#31 RD | DL2 Rating Rating: 74.55#10 DL2 |
DEVON TOEWS Rating: 75.5#13 LD | SCOTT MAYFIELD Rating: 73.1#51 RD | DL3 Rating Rating: 74.34#2 DL3 |
Somehow this Islanders lineup is one of the top teams in the league. I’m starting to think Barry Trotz knows what he’s doing.
Here are five things to watch for…
1. Hyman Returns!
Apparently a Hyman can return. Anyways, Hyman brings a lot of elements in his game that have been missing from the Leafs this year, both as a special teams player, puck retriever, and as a plucky try hard guy who *extreme hockey cliche voice* never takes a shift off.
He’ll be a nice addition to the Tavares line, although after an extended absence it remains to be seen how effective he’ll be in his early games of the season.
2. Tavares Returns… to Long Island, again.
Anyone who thinks Islanders fans got it out of their system last year have no idea the depth of pettiness of a New York sports fan. This will never go away and Tavares will once be subjected to ridicule from the unwashed masses.
Unfortunately this return is coming at a time when arguably you could say that Tavares could be a whole lot better, and you could argue that the Islanders can’t really do much better than they’ve been doing. Those “we don’t need you” chants might ring a bit more true this go around, but hopefully Tavares lights them up anyway.
3. It’s been a while since we’ve pointed out that Kapanen and Johnsson need to be better
Yeah, basically just that. Kapanen probably has been a bit better of late, and adds a lot of value on his individual efforts, but remains a difficult piece to place on a regular line. Blinding straight forward speed makes up for a lot of other issues though, and he’s getting his shot with Hyman and Tavares. Perhaps Hyman was the missing piece to make Tavares-Kapanen work, but the lack of a playmaker definitely changes the style of play of that line. I think it can work, but it definitely involves a strategic overhaul from what they were doing with Marner.
As for Johnsson, well, perhaps I just want to set the bar higher than what the Leafs have been getting from him. He’s in an ideal situation with Matthews and Nylander, and only has 2 points in the past 5 games, when you could argue that Matthews and Nylander have been playing their best hockey of the season.
I wouldn’t rule out a couple of things with Johnsson:
- He might get a shot with Tavares if Kapanen doesn’t work out.
- He might get flipped with Moore on the third line, so the Matthews line can upgrade on puck retrieval and own zone play at the expense of some offensive talent.
There was a reason I had a sell high attitude on both Kapanen and Johnsson over the summer, and I can’t help but think I’d like having a talented defenseman more than either of them at the moment.
4. Will this be the game where Cody Ceci makes the correct coverage decision
Death, Taxes, and Cody Ceci going where the puck won’t be. This is the lesson that Leafs fans are learning this year and one that Senators fans were only too happy to share with us while Toronto insisted a stronger partner would make a difference.
The problem seems to be on any given zone entry Cody Ceci will either pick up the wrong player, arrive late, or just simply be caught out of position and it’s frustrating as hell. Oddly enough, it’s the eye test that is telling us this because statistically he hasn’t been bad, though a lot of that comes from being the passenger on the top pairing and frequently playing with the top line.
5. Will Komarov burn the Leafs tonight?
With Matt Martin injured, a returning from injury Leo Komarov will carry the heavy burden of being the former Leaf who has to light up Toronto. There’s the small issue of Komarov not being any good, but hey, that didn’t stop Par Lindholm.
Game time is at 7:00 PM ET and can be seen on Sportsnet.
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