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Maple Leafs Pregame #26: 5 things to watch for against the Wings

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Photo credit:Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports
Jon Steitzer
4 years ago
It feels like forever since the Leafs played, and I think we all need this game. Not only would it be nice to see the good times with Coach Keefe continue, but it would also be nice to watch and enjoy the sport and remember why we put up with toxicity that plagues it.
The Wings are bad, and that should help the Leafs good times continue, and the last game against the Wings certainly speaks to optimism for the Leafs as well, but the luxury of taking any game lightly is long gone, and sitting 4 points out of a Wild Card spot with the entire conference having games at hand over the Leafs, it’s best they #get2work.

Lineup

LWCRWForwards

ANDREAS JOHNSSON
Rating: 73.0#60 LW

AUSTON MATTHEWS
Rating: 81.0#7 C

WILLIAM NYLANDER
Rating: 74.7#32 RW
FL1 Rating
Rating: 76.22#13 FL1

ILYA MIKHEYEV
Rating: 74.7#35 LW

JOHN TAVARES
Rating: 78.8#15 C

ZACH HYMAN
Rating: 73.5#75 RW
FL2 Rating
Rating: 75.65#4 FL2

NIC PETAN
Rating: 72.0#111 LW

JASON SPEZZA
Rating: 71.4#130 C

KASPERI KAPANEN
Rating: 73.2#58 RW
FL3 Rating
Rating: 72.16#12 FL3

PIERRE ENGVALL
Rating: 73.7#49 LW

FREDERIK GAUTHIER
Rating: 69.2#178 C

DMYTRO TIMASHOV
Rating: 72.4#70 RW
FL4 Rating
Rating: 71.78#10 FL4
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGSDefense

MORGAN RIELLY
Rating: 76.2#11 LD

CODY CECI
Rating: 71.8#85 RD
DL1 Rating
Rating: 73.97#22 DL1

JAKE MUZZIN
Rating: 75.3#19 LD

JUSTIN HOLL
Rating: 73.3#45 RD
DL2 Rating
Rating: 74.30#13 DL2

TRAVIS DERMOTT
Rating: 72.9#63 LD

TYSON BARRIE
Rating: 76.2#13 RD
DL3 Rating
Rating: 74.55#2 DL3
LWCRWForwards

TYLER BERTUZZI
Rating: 75.9#26 LW

DYLAN LARKIN
Rating: 77.4#22 C

ROBBY FABBRI
Rating: 71.3#85 RW
FL1 Rating
Rating: 74.87#23 FL1

DARREN HELM
Rating: 70.0#161 LW

VALTTERI FILPPULA
Rating: 71.3#131 C

FILIP ZADINA
Rating: 72.8#70 RW
FL2 Rating
Rating: 71.38#30 FL2

LUKE GLENDENING
Rating: 70.0#137 LW

FRANS NIELSEN
Rating: 69.8#165 C

ANDREAS ATHANASIOU
Rating: 75.1#24 RW
FL3 Rating
Rating: 71.64#18 FL3

TARO HIROSE
Rating: 72.1#89 LW

CHRISTOFFER EHN
Rating: 67.7#184 C

BRENDAN PERLINI
Rating: 70.4#128 RW
FL4 Rating
Rating: 70.04#29 FL4
DEFENSIVE PAIRINGSDefense

PATRIK NEMETH
Rating: 71.8#88 LD

FILIP HRONEK
Rating: 73.1#50 RD
DL1 Rating
Rating: 72.50#29 DL1

DENNIS CHOLOWSKI
Rating: 71.0#18 LD

MIKE GREEN
Rating: 72.6#61 RD
DL2 Rating
Rating: 71.83#30 DL2

JONATHAN ERICSSON
Rating: 68.8#120 LD

MADISON BOWEY
Rating: 70.1#102 RD
DL3 Rating
Rating: 69.48#31 DL3
The best compliment I can pay the Red Wings lineup is that it is interesting. There is a good collection of swing for the fences, last chance to be an impact players on it in Fabbri, Bowey, Perlini, and Athanasiou. Unfortunately for them they are still heavily tied down to Ken Holland’s poor decisions to retain Ericsson, Helm, Abdelkader, Helm, Glendening, and of course that Nielsen contract.
Here are 5 things to watch for:

1. The Nic Petan Promotion

I’ll admit to being a little surprised by this one, as I thought Engvall has shown enough in his three games to look like the better option for the third line, but when I rattled it around in my head a bit more, I think I’ve come to agree with the decision made by putting Petan up with Spezza and Kapanen.
The Leafs need to see if they can find a fit for Petan and with the return of Marner a decision will need to be made on him once again. He’s proven to be dominated at the AHL level, but really can’t find his place in the NHL. Spezza and Kapanen are probably the last combination of players that haven’t been tried, aside from putting him with Matthews and Nylander. If this doesn’t click, we probably shouldn’t feel too bad about moving on from Petan.
As for Engvall, it’s probably best that he settles into a level of familiarity with the 4th line group, because if he keeps on holding his own, he might not be the player sent back to the Marlies when Marner and Moore return.

2. The Tavares Line

If there is one thing I’ve learned from watching the Islanders over the past decade, it’s that there really doesn’t seem to be much point to giving Tavares your best wingers. You’re better off giving him good wingers, and letting him make them great.
That’s why I’m all for the Hyman-Tavares-Mikheyev line, which gives Tavares competent players that he is only going to make better. It’s hard to imagine that there won’t be a reunion with Mitch Marner at some point, but I have to say, I am curious about what would happen if the Leafs attempted to role what would be pretty close to 3 first lines by strapping Marner in alongside Kerfoot when they return.
As for now, let’s just hope that Hyman-Tavares-Mikheyev line can get someone going besides Hyman, as Tavares isn’t up to his usual point per game pace yet, and Mikheyev has slowed down as the season has moved on as well.

3. Rielly-Ceci not working well under Keefe

If there are two players that can be pointed to as being better under Babcock than Keefe, it’s the Leafs “top” pairing of Morgan Rielly and Cody Ceci.
For arguments sake, we’ll say that Morgan Rielly is talented and can be salvaged, and might be struggling because he has a boat anchor attached to him.
Ceci’s numbers under Keefe are:
Game #OpponentCFCACF%CF RelxGFxGAxGF%xGF RelES TOI
24Arizona142041.18(27.06)0.410.8632.27(37.94)18:40
25Colorado122136.36(15.75)0.190.7619.7(45.73)19:40
Additionally, his xGF% has dropped to a sub 50% level, and he’s 10 games removed from having a positive goal differential, although he’s gone the past three games without being on the ice for a goal against.
Considering that Dubas has recently praised Ceci’s numbers (they’ve been on a steady decline since that comment) it’s hard to imagine that Rielly and Ceci won’t continue as the top pairing, but in these times of change, something seems like it will have to give eventually.

4. Andreas Johnsson penalty killer

As someone who firmly believes in having offensive talents contribute to the penalty kill, this is one of my favourite developments under Keefe. This is still a relatively new thing for the Leafs, although it was a regular thing on the Marlies, so I hope we’ll get some favourable results and see more of it. You don’t need to be penalized twice by being down one player, but then again by choosing to take your skilled players off the ice for two minutes.

5. This may be the last day you can tweet this…

The game starts at 7PM ET and can be seen on Sportsnet and Sportsnet One.

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