The Leafs’ Fenwick and Their Historical Playoff Odds
By Shawn Reis
9 years agoThe Leafs currently sit 23rd in the league with a 47.78% Fenwick and seem to have settled into the 47% range as a season average over the last few games. It’s an improvement on the last couple of seasons and certainly makes their chances of getting into the playoffs better. But by how much?
Like I said, the Leafs have seemed to settle into the 47% range for Fenwick over recent games. What we also know is that once we get to about the 20 game mark there is an increasingly small chance that a team’s possession numbers will vary much by the end of the season. With this in mind, it seems at least probable that the Leafs Fenwick will finish in the 46 to 48% range by the end of the season. Knowing this, I looked at every team that had a Fenwick in this range over the last five 82 game seasons in the NHL to see how they fared. Here’s the results:
Season | Team | Fenwick% | Conference Seed |
2008-2009 | Nashville Predators | 48.96 | 10th |
2008-2009 | Pittsburgh Penguins | 48.95 | 4th |
2008-2009 | Vancouver Canucks | 48.91 | 3rd |
2011-2012 | Anaheim Ducks | 48.86 | 13th |
2011-2012 | New York Islanders | 48.72 | 14th |
2010-2011 | Nashville Predators | 48.44 | 5th |
2009-2010 | New York Islanders | 48.44 | 13th |
2008-2009 | Philadelphia Flyers | 48.37 | 5th |
2009-2010 | Dallas Stars | 48.30 | 12th |
2009-2010 | Minnesota Wild | 48.10 | 13th |
2008-2009 | Colorado Avalanche | 48.08 | 15th |
2011-2012 | Buffalo Sabres | 48.04 | 9th |
2009-2010 | Carolina Hurricanes | 47.94 | 11th |
2009-2010 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 47.86 | 12th |
2013-2014 | Montreal Canadiens | 47.86 | 4th |
2011-2012 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 47.84 | 13th |
2010-2011 | Dallas Stars | 47.82 | 9th |
2011-2012 | Carolina Hurricanes | 47.81 | 12th |
2009-2010 | Atlanta Thrashers | 47.76 | 10th |
2011-2012 | Edmonton Oilers | 47.75 | 14th |
2011-2012 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 47.75 | 10th |
2013-2014 | Calgary Flames | 47.75 | 13th |
2009-2010 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 47.74 | 14th |
2011-2012 | Montreal Canadiens | 47.70 | 15th |
2011-2012 | Columbus Blue Jackets | 47.68 | 15th |
2008-2009 | Tampa Bay Lightning | 47.64 | 14th |
2010-2011 | Carolina Hurricanes | 47.63 | 9th |
2010-2011 | Colorado Avalanche | 47.55 | 14th |
2008-2009 | Montreal Canadiens | 47.42 | 8th |
2012-2014 | Washington Capitals | 47.11 | 9th |
2011-2012 | Nashville Predators | 47.11 | 4th |
2008-2009 | Minnesota Wild | 47.08 | 9th |
2008-2009 | Edmonton Oilers | 47.05 | 11th |
2010-2011 | Toronto Maple Leafs | 47.02 | 10th |
2009-2010 | Montreal Canadiens | 46.88 | 8th |
2011-2012 | Calgary Flames | 46.70 | 9th |
2009-2010 | Anaheim Ducks | 46.69 | 11th |
2013-2014 | Colorado Avalanche | 46.54 | 2nd |
2010-2011 | New York Islanders | 46.47 | 14th |
2008-2009 | Atlanta Thrashers | 46.43 | 13th |
2009-2010 | Colorado Avalanche | 46.08 | 8th |
NOTES
- For teams with a Fenwick% between 46.00 and 46.99, 4/7 missed the playoffs and only one finished above 8th in their conference. The average place in the standing for teams in this range (rounded) was 9th.
- For teams with a Fenwick% between 47.00 and 47.99, just 3/22 made the playoffs. One came 8th, and the other two came in 4th. The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 11th.
- For teams with a Fenwick% between 48.00 and 48.99, 8/12 missed the playoffs. Interestingly enough, each team came between 3rd and 5th in the conference out of this bunch. The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 10th.
- Overall, for teams with a Fenwick% between 46.00 and 48.99, 31/41 missed the playoffs and just 7/41 teams finished higher than 8th in their conference. The average place in the standings for teams in this range was 10th.
This isn’t very encouraging for the Leafs playoff chances, but it’s not terrible news either. Historically speaking, they certainly seem to have at least a chance at getting in. They do sit 7th in the East in points right now, have a positive goal differential, and a PDO off 100.4. So, their record does seem largely sustainable. I think this aligns pretty closely with what most people think of this team: they have a decent chance, albeit an outside one, at making the playoffs. I guess we’ll just have to wait and see.
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