The Leafs: What Happened?

Uncle. Freakin’ uncle.

I’m so tired of the Leafs debate being the pro-analytics crowd against the anti-analytics crowd. It really isn’t that hard to see what happened this season. With the exception of this sentence, I promise not to use the word “Corsi” for the rest of this post.

There are a few reasons so bare with me. Let’s start up top.

Here are five forwards the Leafs gained and four forwards they lost. There are some obvious omissions from this list of course but for good reason. Where’s Joe Colborne? Well he only played five games last season. Sure, the Leafs could have used him when they needed a centre but he didn’t exactly contribute to their success last year, which is what we’re talking about. How about Mike Brown or Ryan Hamilton? They played 12 and 10 games respectively. Let’s stick to the main players. 

This season, these four players combined for 1.46 points per game with a cap hit of about $10,095,000. 

“WAIT A SEC!!! Where the hell is Peter Holland on this list?!?” A legitimate question. I’ll explain my logic there in a moment.

Last season, these four players combined for 1.56 points per game with a cap hit of $10,475,000.

So why didn’t I use Peter Holland? Well, because Peter Holland is Dave Bolland.

Huh?

You see, Dave Bolland didn’t play the majority of this season due to injury. Peter Holland was Dave Bolland’s injury replacement. Peter Holland never got to play in the games Dave Bolland did because the team felt there was no room for both players to be in the same lineup. Their centres are Bozak, Kadri, Bolland, and McClement. In that order. I could add Holland’s stats but that would mean subtracting Bolland’s. Holland had 10 points in 39 games for 0.25 points per game, so replace Bolland’s 0.52 with that and it brings this year’s group’s average down to 1.19 points per game. Now, if Holland played in the place of, say, Colton Orr, then it might make sense to add him into the equation. He didn’t.

So what am I saying? I’m saying that in 2012-13, Grabovski, MacArthur, Frattin, and Komarov produced at almost the exact same rate Clarkson, Bolland, Raymond, and Bodie have this year. Keep in mind, Grabovski and MacArthur were considered “awful” last year, too.

“What’s your point, Steve? Umm, aren’t you forgetting that the Leafs got Jonathan Bernier and he stood on his head for them all season long?”

It is true that Jonathan Bernier had a great season. He finished 26-19-7 with a .923% save percentage. A goalie who stops 92.3% of the shots he faces is giving his team a chance to win and then some.

The problem: Last year James Reimer had a .924% save percentage. The guy stopped 92.4% of the shots he faced, or in other words, an almost identical number to Bernier’s this season.

“So what are you saying? Are you saying that James Reimer is better than Jonathan Bernier? Are you saying he’s as good? Stop it with the James Reimer love fest, nerd!”

No.

The Toronto Maple Leafs acquired Jonathan Bernier to be an upgrade on James Reimer. The Leafs traded away four assets in hopes of achieving this goal. Ben Scrivens, Matt Frattin, a 2nd-round pick, and $500,000 were dealt to make sure this season’s goaltending would be better than last year’s. Many people judge whether a team “won” a trade based on what Team A got vs. Team B. That’s fine. Another thing you should consider however is this: Which team achieved their goal? 

The Leafs wanted an improvement in net. Did they get it? Would those four assets have been better-used on a defenceman or forward instead? I’ll let you decide that.

The LA Kings needed a starter while Jonathan Quick was hurt. Ben Scrivens performed well and was later dealt for a draft pick after an internal asset – Martin Jones – proved himself worthy of the NHL. The Kings wanted to improve their offence. Matt Frattin and the Leafs’ 2nd-rounder from the Bernier deal were packaged to acquire Marian Gaborik. The Kings ended up being a cap team this season so the $500,000 they received from the Leafs was a nice cushion for them. I’d say the Kings are very happy with what they’ve done. How about the Leafs?

Let me emphasize once more: Jonathan Bernier was excellent this season. I just think management’s strategy was flawed.

Are there other factors at work? Of course there are. Nazem Kadri was almost a point-per-game player last season. He isn’t this time around, which certainly doesn’t mean he’s bad, but we did see it coming. 

Joffrey Lupul was above a point-per-game when he was healthy. He’s healthier this season but he isn’t scoring at an Art ross pace anymore.

Cody Franson was 8th in defensive scoring last season and currently sits 42nd this season.

Dion Phaneuf was 10th in defensive scoring last season and currently sits 45th this season (tied with Jake Gardiner, actually). We have conflicting opinions about the captain on this site and some like him more than others.

On and on and on.

Look…

Leafs management, coaching included, can cry about injuries all they want. They shouldn’t expect the Detroit Red Wings, Pittsburgh Penguins, Tampa Bay Lightning, or any any time to dry their tears, though. Dave Bolland is a good player but he ain’t Pavel Datsyuk, Kris Letang, or Steven Stamkos.

I’m not saying the Grabovski buyout ruined the team, or that not re-signing MacArthur screwed everything up, or that the Bernier trade was bad. I’m saying Leafs management had a certain thought process heading into last summer and made some bets. They won on some, lost on others, and their losses appear to to have outweighed their winnings based on this season’s results.

Leafs management whiffed. “Advanced” stats tell you that and they regular ones do, too.