TLN Roundtable: PROSPECTS!

With another summer of prospect rankings in the books, it’s time to take one look back on the pool, and reflect on what’s to come.

Today’s questions are: who’s a prospect you think will see their stock fall by the time our next rankings roll around? Who’s someone you think will see their stock go up?

I can see our perspectives on Nikita Soshnikov falling pretty significantly. As one of the older prospects in the list, if he doesn’t crack the Leafs’ roster over someone like Josh Leivo or Brendan Leipsic, I definitely would anticipate people thinking less of him. There’s quite a logjam to make the roster out of camp so it’ll be tough doing for Nikita. If he goes to the minors and is productive I don’t see his rankings dropping much, but if he falls victim to a shooting percentage drop, he will likely see some ill favour in the rankings.

As for rising stars, I think Adam Brooks will definitely climb up my rankings. If he’s able to continue his offensive success from junior in the pros, he could impress a lot of people, including myself. This year, I held my suspicions with finally getting to elite junior production levels at 20 years old, but if he can utilize his skillset in the pros despite his size and late blooming, he could see a significant jump in the ranks.

After posting 70 points in the WHL in his draft + 1 season, Andrew Nielsen (ranked 15th) is well positioned to make a jump in our next prospect rankings. With the recent departure of T.J. Brennan, Nielsen is more likely to get a shot at some power play time as an AHL rookie. He’ll still have to compete with Rinat Valiev and fellow 2015 draftee Travis Dermott – which will be challenging – but that competition gives him a much better chance than years prior when Brennan quarterbacked the Marlies power play. If he’s able to get his fair share of offensive zone starts and work his way onto the power play, Nielsen’s ability to get shots to the net could translate into some strong AHL rookie numbers. I wouldn’t be surprised if Nielsen cracks the top 10 in our January 2017 rankings.      
On the other side of the coin, I think Kasperi Kapanen (ranked 5th) is likely to drop in our rankings but by no fault of his own. Kapanen has blazing speed and great hands. His only problem is that we expect too much of him. I think Kapanen’s skill could be compared to Nazem Kadri.  You can count on Kadri to notch a highlight reel goal or assist at least once per season. However, despite his flash Kadri is going to struggle to crack 50 points, even with a ton of ice time. Traditionally we want to see players with that flash produce Malkin and Crosby numbers but not many can do that, and that’s okay. As long as we adjust our expectations, we’re going to be very happy to see Kapanen as a middle-six winger putting up 40 points a year – and giving us the occasional show. I expect a few prospects to leap-frog Kapanen in our next rankings.

Connor Brown isn’t the world’s greatest prospect, just about everyone knows that. His junior and pro career, he’s never really been heralded as the best player on his team, but he’s stuck around in the right scenarios to produce effectively enough that he’s been given a shot to keep going. 

A late bloomer of sorts, the man known for an extremely strong final two OHL seasons that intersected with playing alongside a generational talent in Connor McDavid, Brown since has shown glimpses of his talent at the NHL level last season, picking up six points in seven games. 

Though his junior totals were downright obscene, just about everyone knew it was as much more a matter of circumstance than a true reflection of his talent levels. 

Brown’s NHL debut last year was a solid but ultimately a relatively small glimpse into his potential. His age at 22 isn’t anything to be alarmed about, as prospects of his caliber often don’t find themselves getting full-time NHL work until 24 or 25.

But if Brown fails to crack a roster with limited spots for forward prospects, it’s quite feasible we’ll see the limited opportunities given to well, guys who haven’t been afforded as much of a chance.

I don’t particularly think Brown will develop any worse or better based on the next three-four months of play, but it’s definitely enough time to change our perception of him in relation to other prospects. As much as we try to avoid it, recency bias does play a part in many’s prospect rankings and an impressive AHL or NHL showing from a few  folks we haven’t had around the organization as long might bump Brown down a few places.

Essentially the opposite of Brown, Kasimir Kaskisuo is the new man in the organization — fresh blood, if you will. The thing about the goalie with the cool name is that we don’t really know much about him: even the most diehard of Leafs fans wouldn’t have likely gathered much info beyond the basic scouting report and a look at his NCAA stats. 

Because we don’t know tons about him, it’s easy to rank him low or not at all. But, as the season goes on this year, there’s a high possibility of seeing “Double-K” earn ice time at the AHL level, a team most of us follow more closely than Minnesota-Duluth.

I’m not saying a few good games will bring him to be the Leafs’ goalie of the future or anything, but that might at least put him on the radar.