TLN Top 20 Prospects 2016: #11 Jeremy Bracco

7 years ago

It’s hard to imagine someone that put up 126 points in their draft year and someone that a lot of people felt was worthy of a first round pick sits this low in rankings. Is that a knock on Bracco, or a testament to the depth of the Leafs’ prospect pool?

Let’s take a look.

THE VOTES

Jeff	Ryan H.	Shawn	Ryan F.	Adam	Dom	Jess	Katy	Readers
11	14	6	14	7	12	11	20	13

PLAYER BIO

Position	Hometown	Height	Weight	Handedness	2015 Team	Acquired
RW/C	Freeport, NY	5’9	172	Right	Kitchener Rangers	2015 Draft (2-61)

THE STATS

SEASON	AGE	TEAM	LEAGUE	GP	G	A	TP	NHLe	PIM	+/-
2009-10	13	Long Island Gulls Bantam Minor	AYMBHL	28	34	41	75	N/A	4	N/A
2010-11	13	Long Island Gulls Bantam Major	AYBHL	31	25	42	67	N/A	6	N/A
2011-12	14	Long Island Gulls Bantam Major	AYBHL	28	26	49	75	N/A	26	N/A
	14	Portledge School	USHS	20	15	27	42	12.6	–	N/A
2012-13	15	Portledge School	USHS	11	12	12	24	13.09	–	N/A
	15	New Jersey Rockets	MetJHL	10	9	15	24	N/A	0	N/A
	15	New Jersey Rockets	AtJHL	30	16	34	50	N/A	24	N/A
2013-14	16	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	34	9	28	37	22.04	10	-7
	16	U.S. National U17 Team	USDP	54	16	58	74	N/A	20	N/A
2014-15	17	USNTDP Juniors	USHL	24	14	18	32	27	6	20
	17	U.S. National U18 Team	USDP	65	30	64	94	N/A	10	N/A
2015-16	18	Boston College	NCAA	5	0	3	3	N/A	4	3
	18	Kitchener Rangers	OHL	49	21	43	64	31.35	19	15

Bracco’s consistently put up the points wherever he’s played. His absurd production with the USNTDP in his draft year is why a lot of the more statistically inclined felt he could be a major bargain bin pickup, and last year he continued to produce, putting up a strong 64 points in 49 games with the OHL’s Kitchener Rangers.

PROJECTION STATS

pGPSn	pGPSs	pGPS%	pGPS PPG	pGPS PP82	pGPSr
46 (8/18)	11 (11/18)	23.9% (13/18)	0.47 (12/18)	38.42 (12/18)	11.21 (14/18)

pGPSn: The number of matches between the subject and the player-seasons (one season by a single player, i.e, John Tavares 2008 OHL) in the historical sample.
pGPSs: The number of statistical matches that became NHL regulars. This is determined by playing 200 NHL games.
pGPS%: Simply s divided by n, this is the percentage of statistical matches that successfully became NHL players.
pGPS PPG: The NHL points per game of successful matches.
pGPS P82: The same as pGPS PPG, but stretched over 82 games.
pGPSr: A bit of a hybrid number, this pGPS Rating combines the percentage and points per game to produce a number that includes both likelihood of success and potential upside.

Based on the success of his historical comparables, Bracco is projected to become a third line forward.

To learn more about the Prospect Graduation Probabilities System, check out this post.

THE EYE TEST

Oddly enough, I wasn’t a big fan of Bracco at all in his draft year, and the eye test was the reason why. Every time I got to watch him I was left wondering how a player that seemed slow, unthreatening with the puck, and generally invisible could put up so many points.

Fast forward a year, and I’m convinced I was either catching him in all the wrong games or that he’s done a lot of growing over the span of a season. It’s probably a bit of both.

Granted, Bracco is still a little slow, and for someone that’s also 5″9′, his speed is going to be the biggest thing that might hold him back from a future in the NHL. But, he’s not Andy Wozniewski out there either.

Aside from that, Bracco’s pretty shifty with the puck and is an entertaining and noticeable puck-handler. He doesn’t really dance through games, but he’s a good zone entry player that seems to have the puck on his stick a lot, and he uses his puckhandling to keep the puck in his team’s possession. Basically, he might have better puck skills than any other Leafs prospects outside of the big three.

He’s also got a good shot, and passing is a serious asset. He certainly does them well enough to entertain possibilities of tantalizing NHL upside.

So, the guy has skill. Enough for me to think he has legitimate top-six upside, which I’d say only him and Kasperi Kapanen have for Leafs prospects outside Matthews, Marner, and Nylander.

But, skating is an issue, and so is shot generation, which are the things leaving me thinking he probably won’t reach his upside. High-ish ceiling, low-ish chance of reaching it.

AS SEEN ON TV

NEXT SEASON

Bracco’s still pretty young, especially relative to most Leafs prospects given the Leafs drafted a bunch of old men in Buffalo. He was really productive last season but definitely needs to improve on those totals for me to really feel optimistic about his future. He also needs to improve his skating and ability to put pucks on net. If he can do those things, he likely finishes a lot higher in our mid-season rankings.

CLOSING THOUGHTS

I think Bracco’s one of a very select few in the Leafs prospect system that have legitimate top-six upside, even if he might not be likely to reach it. For me, that’s reason enough to argue he should be ranked higher.

Alas, we are where we are, and Bracco sits in the back half of a pretty damn deep prospect pool. All I’ll say is I think Bracco’s poised for a big 16-17 season, especially with even more opportunity arising in the graduation of Kitchener’s star center Ryan MacInnis to the pros. I also think some of the players that are being highly valued in these rankings could disappoint. So, don’t be surprised if Bracco is a lot more highly coveted down the line.