Our friends over at Oilersnation just took a look at their spectrum of trade deadline outcomes. Interestingly enough their best case scenario sees Bobby McMann becoming an Oiler. I don’t hate that they want McMann but the Oilers lack of a 2026 first round pick has me trying to think of an improved best case scenario for the Toronto Maple Leafs. Which brings us to this post, an honest attempt to identify what the best, worst, and realistic trade deadline scenarios are for the Maple Leafs.

The best case scenario for the Maple Leafs is that they are sellers first and foremost. And while they do have some pending unrestricted free agents that should be dealt rather than re-signed, the best case scenario likely involves freeing up some salary cap flexibility in the 2026-27 season by cashing out on some players that are not ideal fits and might garner solid returns during the trade deadline. The Leafs already seem to be on the path to the best case scenario with the Nicolas Roy trade.

Oliver Ekman-Larsson being dealt is the absolute best case scenario. He’s veteran who is performing at a high level on a manageable contract and is potentially the clearest path to the Maple Leafs acquiring a first round draft pick. Any ideal trade deadline needs to involve selling high on a player who has ping ponged between buyout calibre seasons and resurgences to his prime. The Leafs don’t know what OEL will be next season or how he will respond to whomever is coaching him, so moving on now and allowing the blueline to get younger in the process seems like an easy win.

Others like Max Domi, Brandon Carlo, and Anthony Stolarz all need to be considered as well and in an absolute best case scenario the Maple Leafs cash out on at least one other player under contract for 2026-27 as well to give the Leafs the cap, roster, and asset flexibility to move on from this setback season.

Of course, this is a trade deadline and not The Purge. A best scenario should involve returns that leave fans and the organization excited about what they can bring to the Leafs next season. This could be a near ready NHL prospect, an encouraging reclamation project, or enough draft picks that the Leafs will likely attempt something meaningful in the offseason.

Brad Treliving doesn’t go big at trade deadlines, not as a buyer and not as a seller. The Leafs have talked about bringing back Scott Laughton and Bobby McMann, but reality is that they will make a choice between the two of them and one will be dealt for the best draft pick offered. There will be something else happening besides Nic Roy but it is worth considering that was “the move.”

Depth like Calle Jarnkrok and Simon Benoit are likely to be moved for later picks as well and we’ll hear a lot about playoff pushes and reassessing things in the offseason.

For a lot of people that might sound like the worst case scenario but the reality is that there are a lot of sellers out there and the returns the Leafs might not be there anyway. There is also the reality that while a lot of fans would like to see the Leafs go scorched earth on their lineup card, no GM is going to be pulling off half a dozen moves this week and stripping things down too much comes with a heavy risk given the limited availability of quality roster additions in free agency.

If the Leafs had a deeper pool of near NHL ready prospects they could attempt more drastic measures but reality is that players like Laughton, Maccelli, Carlo, etc. will still have a place on the Leafs next season.

There is nothing worse than standing pat. No one wanted to see a deadline that sees Matt Benning moved for a 36-year-old AHLer either. Even though all signs point to Toronto selling, having the Maple Leafs attempt to buy would be more appealing because it at least involves an acknowledgement that the lineup as it exists now is not where it needs to be and that the club can’t pass on an opportunity when other GMs are willing to facilitate changes to it.

There are a lot of bad trades out there, as Brad Treliving proved last season with the Brandon Carlo deal but even that deal requires the hindsight of the Bruins acquiring a potential top ten pick in the process before it looks truly heinous. At the time it seemed much more like a GM willing to overpay to address what was an obvious hole in Toronto’s lineup. The Leafs spending their limited futures but taking a chance on someone who could add value to the team isn’t as bad as coasting by.

The 2026 Trade Deadline Special is going LIVE March 6th. Join the Daily Faceoff crew on Friday, March 6th, from 11 AM-3:30 PM ET for wall-to-wall coverage of every single move as it happens. Get instant reaction, expert analysis, and exclusive insights from special guests throughout the day. Tune in LIVE on the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel and don’t miss a second of deadline day chaos.