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Dry March and SV% Expectations

By Jeff Veillette

Mar 24, 2014, 14:24 EDTUpdated:

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Goaltenders, by nature, are easy targets. They’re the last ones to make a mistake before the puck goes in, and when they’re doing their job at their absolute best, the results are boring and forgettable until you look at the scoresheet at the final buzzer.

I’m going to keep this short, but sweet. Nobody is going to deny that James Reimer is struggling a bit. His numbers since the Los Angeles game look like his post-concussion numbers in 2011/12, and he’s let in a couple of weak goals over the past few days. But to act like the’s the only fault, the reason the Leafs are losing. Is close minded. Quite simply; the Leafs are under performing so badly, that they’d need hall of fame quality goaltending to weather this tide.

No crazy statistics. Just a two tables. The Toronto Maple Leafs have not scored more than three regulation goals in any game this month. This is important, because it requires the goalie to let in no more than two to win the game in sixty minutes, At 25 shots against per game (NJ is best at 25.5), stopping all but two requires a 0.920 save percentage, well above league average. A team needs to be able to occasionally score enough that their goaltender doesn’t have to have an amazing night. Here’s the rest of the league and their 4+ goal games in March.

	Team	GP	4+		Team	GP	4+		Team	GP	4+
1	Philadelphia	10	7	11	St. Louis	12	4	21	Vancouver	11	2
2	Boston	13	7	12	Anaheim	10	3	22	Winnipeg	11	2
3	Ottawa	10	5	13	Montreal	11	3	23	Carolina	12	2
4	San Jose	11	5	14	Columbus	12	3	24	Dallas	12	2
5	Calgary	12	5	15	NY Rangers	12	3	25	Nashville	12	2
6	Tampa Bay	12	5	16	Florida	13	3	26	Pittsburgh	12	2
7	Washington	12	5	17	Los Angeles	10	2	27	Edmoton	11	1
8	Chicago	11	4	18	NY Islanders	10	2	28	Minnesota	12	1
9	Colorado	11	4	19	Detroit	11	2	29	Buffalo	11	0
10	New Jersey	12	4	20	Phoenix	11	2	30	Toronto	12	0

The only team that doesn’t have a 4+ goal game in March is the Buffalo Sabres, who are dead last in the NHL by a mile, and are on pace for the lowest goals per game average the league has seen since 1936. Coincidentally, the Leafs are on pace to be in the top 5 for most shots allowed in a season, leaving this deadly combination.

Save % required for Regulation Win, March 2014

Game	Goals For	Shots Against	Required SV%
1-Mar (Montreal)	3	30	933
3-Mar (Columbus)	1	33	1000
5-Mar (NY Rangers)	3	37	946
8-Mar (Philadelphia)	3	31	935
10-Mar (Anaheim)	3	44	955
11-Mar (San Jose)	2	48	979
13-Mar (Los Angeles)	3	41	951
16-Mar (Washington)	2	32	969
18-Mar (Detroit)	2	31	968
19-Mar (Tampa Bay)	3	30	933
22-Mar (Montreal)	3	36	944
23-Mar (New Jersey)	2	24	958

Cool, so the Leafs need at least a 0.933 SV% to win a game on a given night this month, as they continue to bleed shots against. The highest save percentage by a goalie who has played 30+ games this year? A tie between former Leafs prospects Tuukka Rask and Ben Scrivens, at 0.929. A consistent 0.933 goaltender would have the 4th highest save percentage by a Vezina Trophy winner ever, and smash the Leafs record.

No matter how shaky Reimer has been, no matter what goals “should” or “shouldn’t” have been in, the last line of defence needs more support. Whether it’s more goals for, or limiting of shots against, one can’t underestimate the height of the mountain they expected to climb right now. No goalie should be placed under this much of a challenge with an expectation of success.