The Toronto Maple Leafs’ record in close-out games since 2018 dropped to 1-12 after losing Game 4 in overtime to the Ottawa Senators on Saturday.

Righly or wrongly, that stat has been a thorn in the side of the Core Four throughout the years, a quartet that continues to fall short at the final hurdle when concluding a series. Sure, they may have the one series win back in 2023 when John Tavares caught lightning in a bottle, but the Leafs have yet to prove that it was the start of a change of the tides instead of it being considered a fluke.

It’s not like the team was without their chances to put the series away in a sweep, which they had not done in 24 years when they did so in 2001 against the Senators. The Leafs clawed their way back from 2-0 and 3-2 deficits in Game 4 while also having plenty of quality looks on a four-minute power play in overtime. Unfortunately for them, the special teams battle was the deciding factor, and that squandered opportunity proved to be part of their downfall on the night.

Now they are forced into a Game 5 where they have a chance to close out the series in front of their home fans for the first time since 2004. Under normal circumstances, this wouldn’t be seen as a cause for concern since the Leafs already put themselves up 3-0 in the series, which means the odds are in their favour to emerge victorious. But this isn’t a normal team because this is the same core group that saw a 3-1 lead slip away against the Montreal Canadiens back in 2021. Fans after Game 4 ended were already quick to fear the threat of a reverse-sweep because they are emotionally scarred, and it sure feels like the most Leafy thing to occur for a franchise that continues to break the hearts of their fans.

Therefore, Game 5 has to be considered a legacy-defining game for the likes of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, and John Tavares. They need to prove to themselves and the hockey world that they are not the same team that buckles under the pressure when they have the chance to close things out. Instead, they need to be the ones who set the tone and go in for the kill to secure their ticket to the second round.

To their credit, all four have been productive through the first four games of the series and have been involved in some key plays. Matthews scored a big go-ahead goal and set up Simon Benoit’s OT winner in Game 3. Marner made that pass to Matthews while also setting up a critical Matthew Knies tally in Game 4. In that same contest, Tavares got a crucial tally in the dying seconds of the first period to give his team some momentum, which they ultimately used to force overtime. And that was made possible because Nylander made a great pass to Oliver Ekman-Larsson for the tying marker.

The Core Four has come out and produced not only at even strength but also on the man advantage more often than not. They have done just about everything you could ask of them on the offensive side of things while also maintaining their commitment to the Craig Berube system in terms of their two-way play. Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares are a big reason why the Leafs are one win away from winning the series.

But here’s the thing: they haven’t won that fourth game yet, and that success will be all for naught if they don’t close things out. The Leafs’ star forwards must show that they are not deterred by a setback like this and maintain composure to get the job done. History has shown that they have more often than not let the shortcomings snowball into bigger problems and ultimately fall flat on their face. Blowing a 3-0 series lead would be the biggest blunder of them all, and there would be no recovering from the foundation of the team that was given nearly a decade’s worth of tries to get it right.

If the Leafs want to stop Ottawa’s dead in its tracks before it even has a chance to pick up steam, all four of Matthews, Marner, Nylander, and Tavares need to have the game of their lives on Tuesday. They have to play with authority and make it clear off the hop that they will not be denied a trip to the second round. Otherwise, the lingering doubts will only grow louder, and the season with so much riding on it will end in disaster.

The choice is simple: either put the series to bed in five games or risk becoming the fifth team ever to choke away a 3-0 series lead. How the Leafs’ stars look in Game 5 will say a lot about whether they truly have changed for the better or if they are going back to their bad habits at the worst possible time.