<p>It&#8217;s one week until the NHL season starts back up and whether you are tuning into the Four Nations tournament or not, the break seems to make a lot of sense. There is something about a two week reset for the players to heal and recover and the entire league receiving that opportunity at the same time that makes a lot of sense, and for those looking to take a bit of a breather from watching hockey, now is a reasonable time to do so before the stakes get higher. If you didn&#8217;t want a break from hockey, the Four Nations is definitely an elevated alternative to the All-Star break, so this seems like a rare moment when the NHL might be getting something right, or at least right-ish.</p>
<p>Here are few Leafs stray thoughts.</p>
<h2>Wanting more from Oliver Ekman-Larsson</h2>
<p>After a strong start to the season, it seems that OEL is regressing back towards his final days in Arizona rather than looking the defenceman who excelled as a role player during the Panthers&#8217; cup run. While some of that can be put on Ekman-Larsson, as we&#8217;ve seen better from him in the early games of this season, some of that needs to be looked at the perspective of mismanagement.</p>
<p>A big part of the problem is overuse. Ekman-Larsson is playing the most he has since his first season in Vancouver, and as a result his 5v5 differentials are mirroring that as well, save for goals against, which is an encouraging silver lining, but one that comes from 102.3 PDO and 93.2% on-ice save percentage.</p>
<p>Ekman-Larsson&#8217;s icetime at 5v5 is over three minutes higher than he was playing in Florida last season which definitely speaks to him being considered at 4th defenceman rather than a 5th defenceman. Considering the usage in Florida led to a Stanley Cup, a case for finding someone to bump OEL down the roster makes some sense.</p>
<p>There is also something to be said for the partnering. OEL has primarily played with Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev, with Jake McCabe being in a distant third spot. There is absolutely a commitment to keeping Ekman-Larsson in the Leafs&#8217; top four, and from Craig Berube&#8217;s perspective the question needs to be asked about what would the alternative be?</p>
<p>By the limited numbers, Ekman-Larsson has actually been better than his overall numbers when he has played with Conor Timmins and while a better third pairing partner or at least one that complements OEL better makes sense, when the Leafs have adjusted his competition, OEL has thrived. That move has just often come at the expense of putting Morgan Rielly with Philippe Myers, and overall that is still a net downgrade from keeping Ekman-Larsson in the top four.</p>
<p>Looking at Ekman-Larsson&#8217;s numbers my sentiment was initially that he should be a potential player that is a casualty of the Leafs salary cap situation at the trade deadline and he is someone who is being paid too much for being a good 5D. The problem is that moving OEL would likely mean searching for two defencemen in that 4/5 range on the blueline depth chart, and if that doesn&#8217;t cost the Leafs in salary, it would at least cost them in trade assets, so working with Ekman-Larsson further makes sense for now.</p>
<p>For the Leafs it is a matter of finding a way of upgrading their top four so OEL can be moved down, but it is also determining whether Timmins, Benoit, or Myers is the best fit alongside him, or whether Toronto needs to look at a new option at the 6D spot as well.</p>
<h2>More Grebenkin, please</h2>
<p>The last time we saw Nikita Grebenkin in a Leafs uniform was on December 6th. It&#8217;s been over two months and he is missed. That said, Grebenkin being on the Marlies when players like Lorentz and Dewar provide similar bottom six physicality makes some sense, but putting a pin in his return at or post trade deadline seems premature.</p>
<p>At the very least Grebenkin should be a reminder to Brad Treliving that making tweaks at the bottom of the lineup card isn&#8217;t a priority. It should also be a reminder that putting out expensive depth options like Reaves, Kampf, Domi, etc. can be used on significant upgrades up the lineup on the third line center position and second pairing defence position. There is capable backfill with upside like Grebenkin, Minten, Steeves, and others available.</p>
<p>Grebenkin comes across as a player who will continue to make the most of every minute he gets to play in the NHL and make his case for sticking around. Down the stretch there will be a benefit in some youthful energy and having players come off the bench with a head full of steam for eight minutes a night in the playoffs and being capable of anything makes a lot more sense than a slower, lumbering fourth line.</p>
<p>Getting Grebenkin another look makes sense, and with 17 points in 30 AHL games, there is some hope that the Leafs could add some tertiary offence to the bottom of their lineup as well.</p>
<h2>Go big or go longer term (or both)</h2>
<p>Begging for the Leafs to go big at the trade deadline is nothing new. Nor is having the preference for a player with term. I&#8217;m not really offering anything new here other than pointing to the Leafs recent history of where they didn&#8217;t go big and didn&#8217;t look at term.</p>
<ul>
<li>A third and a fifth round pick lost for Joel Edmundson</li>
<li>A third and sixth round pick lost for Ilya Lyubushkin</li>
<li>A third round pick lost for Luke Schenn</li>
</ul>
<p>These are some of the recent rentals that didn&#8217;t really move the bar and saw the player walk a short time later anyway. Third round picks won&#8217;t devastate a franchise, but with an increasingly shallow prospect pool, it would be nice to have another pick in the top 100 selections of the draft again.</p>
<p>In contrast, the Leafs absolutely got it right when trading for term and paying the price to bring in a heavily discounted Jake McCabe or the first good couple of years of Jake Muzzin. A steep price was paid, but the players stuck around to make it worthwhile. Even a lower excitement move like acquiring Connor Dewar makes sense as he is still getting the opportunity to add value to the Leafs.</p>
<p>The only options might be to go big on rentals, and Ryan O&#8217;Reilly certainly showed where that can be worth it, but Nick Foligno absolutely highlighted the risk of that approach. Hindsight led to both situations being better off with doing nothing, but O&#8217;Reilly being part of the Leafs getting a series win was invaluable and given the Leafs success in the bizarre North Division season, had Dubas done nothing at the trade deadline that would still be a source of discussion just like the Foligno trade debacle is. And even if Foligno isn&#8217;t a player who you personally would have targeted, he is still a player that had he been healthy, could have been a difference maker for the Leafs.</p>
<p>Looking at the Leafs present situation and acknowledging Brad Treliving&#8217;s tendencies, going big seems like a longshot, so consider this a plea for going small in a smart long term way. Contracts are going up as the cap does, that is quickly going to become the reality of the league. As such, players with term might never be available at these manageable cap hits again. There is value in filling out the roster for next season before free agency and that benefit comes at the same time depth is being added to current Leafs.</p>
<p>If there is reluctance to swing big and get in a bidding war for the best players available, lean heavy into bet hedging and think about the future. It seems like a good opportunity to make the Leafs roster a little younger at the same time but that is probably hoping for too much.</p>


It's one week until the NHL season starts back up and whether you are tuning into the Four Nations tournament or not, the break seems to make a lot of sense. There is something about a two week reset for the players to heal and recover and the entire league receiving that opportunity at the same time that makes a lot of sense, and for those looking to take a bit of a breather from watching hockey, now is a reasonable time to do so before the stakes get higher. If you didn't want a break from hockey, the Four Nations is definitely an elevated alternative to the All-Star break, so this seems like a rare moment when the NHL might be getting something right, or at least right-ish.

Here are few Leafs stray thoughts.
<h2>Wanting more from Oliver Ekman-Larsson</h2>
After a strong start to the season, it seems that OEL is regressing back towards his final days in Arizona rather than looking the defenceman who excelled as a role player during the Panthers' cup run. While some of that can be put on Ekman-Larsson, as we've seen better from him in the early games of this season, some of that needs to be looked at the perspective of mismanagement.

A big part of the problem is overuse. Ekman-Larsson is playing the most he has since his first season in Vancouver, and as a result his 5v5 differentials are mirroring that as well, save for goals against, which is an encouraging silver lining, but one that comes from 102.3 PDO and 93.2% on-ice save percentage.

Ekman-Larsson's icetime at 5v5 is over three minutes higher than he was playing in Florida last season which definitely speaks to him being considered at 4th defenceman rather than a 5th defenceman. Considering the usage in Florida led to a Stanley Cup, a case for finding someone to bump OEL down the roster makes some sense.

There is also something to be said for the partnering. OEL has primarily played with Morgan Rielly and Chris Tanev, with Jake McCabe being in a distant third spot. There is absolutely a commitment to keeping Ekman-Larsson in the Leafs' top four, and from Craig Berube's perspective the question needs to be asked about what would the alternative be?

By the limited numbers, Ekman-Larsson has actually been better than his overall numbers when he has played with Conor Timmins and while a better third pairing partner or at least one that complements OEL better makes sense, when the Leafs have adjusted his competition, OEL has thrived. That move has just often come at the expense of putting Morgan Rielly with Philippe Myers, and overall that is still a net downgrade from keeping Ekman-Larsson in the top four.

Looking at Ekman-Larsson's numbers my sentiment was initially that he should be a potential player that is a casualty of the Leafs salary cap situation at the trade deadline and he is someone who is being paid too much for being a good 5D. The problem is that moving OEL would likely mean searching for two defencemen in that 4/5 range on the blueline depth chart, and if that doesn't cost the Leafs in salary, it would at least cost them in trade assets, so working with Ekman-Larsson further makes sense for now.

For the Leafs it is a matter of finding a way of upgrading their top four so OEL can be moved down, but it is also determining whether Timmins, Benoit, or Myers is the best fit alongside him, or whether Toronto needs to look at a new option at the 6D spot as well.
<h2>More Grebenkin, please</h2>
The last time we saw Nikita Grebenkin in a Leafs uniform was on December 6th. It's been over two months and he is missed. That said, Grebenkin being on the Marlies when players like Lorentz and Dewar provide similar bottom six physicality makes some sense, but putting a pin in his return at or post trade deadline seems premature.

At the very least Grebenkin should be a reminder to Brad Treliving that making tweaks at the bottom of the lineup card isn't a priority. It should also be a reminder that putting out expensive depth options like Reaves, Kampf, Domi, etc. can be used on significant upgrades up the lineup on the third line center position and second pairing defence position. There is capable backfill with upside like Grebenkin, Minten, Steeves, and others available.

Grebenkin comes across as a player who will continue to make the most of every minute he gets to play in the NHL and make his case for sticking around. Down the stretch there will be a benefit in some youthful energy and having players come off the bench with a head full of steam for eight minutes a night in the playoffs and being capable of anything makes a lot more sense than a slower, lumbering fourth line.

Getting Grebenkin another look makes sense, and with 17 points in 30 AHL games, there is some hope that the Leafs could add some tertiary offence to the bottom of their lineup as well.
<h2>Go big or go longer term (or both)</h2>
Begging for the Leafs to go big at the trade deadline is nothing new. Nor is having the preference for a player with term. I'm not really offering anything new here other than pointing to the Leafs recent history of where they didn't go big and didn't look at term.
<ul>
 	<li>A third and a fifth round pick lost for Joel Edmundson</li>
 	<li>A third and sixth round pick lost for Ilya Lyubushkin</li>
 	<li>A third round pick lost for Luke Schenn</li>
</ul>
These are some of the recent rentals that didn't really move the bar and saw the player walk a short time later anyway. Third round picks won't devastate a franchise, but with an increasingly shallow prospect pool, it would be nice to have another pick in the top 100 selections of the draft again.

In contrast, the Leafs absolutely got it right when trading for term and paying the price to bring in a heavily discounted Jake McCabe or the first good couple of years of Jake Muzzin. A steep price was paid, but the players stuck around to make it worthwhile. Even a lower excitement move like acquiring Connor Dewar makes sense as he is still getting the opportunity to add value to the Leafs.

The only options might be to go big on rentals, and Ryan O'Reilly certainly showed where that can be worth it, but Nick Foligno absolutely highlighted the risk of that approach. Hindsight led to both situations being better off with doing nothing, but O'Reilly being part of the Leafs getting a series win was invaluable and given the Leafs success in the bizarre North Division season, had Dubas done nothing at the trade deadline that would still be a source of discussion just like the Foligno trade debacle is. And even if Foligno isn't a player who you personally would have targeted, he is still a player that had he been healthy, could have been a difference maker for the Leafs.

Looking at the Leafs present situation and acknowledging Brad Treliving's tendencies, going big seems like a longshot, so consider this a plea for going small in a smart long term way. Contracts are going up as the cap does, that is quickly going to become the reality of the league. As such, players with term might never be available at these manageable cap hits again. There is value in filling out the roster for next season before free agency and that benefit comes at the same time depth is being added to current Leafs.

If there is reluctance to swing big and get in a bidding war for the best players available, lean heavy into bet hedging and think about the future. It seems like a good opportunity to make the Leafs roster a little younger at the same time but that is probably hoping for too much.

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