Ahead of the 2026 NHL Draft Lottery, the Toronto Maple Leafs hold 8.5 percent odds of securing the first overall pick. Toronto sports the fifth-best odds of gaining the first overall selection, with the lottery taking place on Tuesday evening. If Toronto were to gain the first overall pick, it would almost certainly select Penn State forward Gavin McKenna, accelerating its retooling efforts heading into the 2026-27 season.

Here is the table of combinations that would allow the Maple Leafs to gain the first overall selection:

Our friends at CanucksArmy put together a comprehensive guide of draft lottery combinations. Vancouver holds 25.5 percent odds of gaining the first overall selection. If the New Jersey Devils, New York Islanders, Columbus Blue Jackets, Detroit Red Wings or Washington Capitals win the lottery, the pick will convert to the Canucks, as only the bottom 11 teams can win the lottery.

It’s a pivotal night for the Maple Leafs as they evaluate all options heading into the 2026-27 season. Maple Leafs senior executive advisor to hockey operations Mats Sundin and general manager John Chayka were formally announced Monday. Sundin and Chayka are now tasked with overhauling a Maple Leafs that experienced a 30-point decline year-over-year, and will have to navigate a new direction heading into the fall, with Auston Matthews and William Nylander at the forefront. A lottery win for the Maple Leafs would allow for the team to pursue new routes, including the previously unthinkable option of trading one of the two franchise cornerstones. Matthew Knies and Easton Cowan are Toronto’s lone under-25 pillars, and stocking up a barren prospect pool will surely be a priority for the new Leafs’ braintrust.

Perhaps the Maple Leafs could use a little bit of good fortune. It’s been ten years since the Maple Leafs won the rights to select Matthews with the first overall pick in the 2016 NHL Draft, a moment that brought in a decade of playoff contention. It could be another franchise-altering night for the Maple Leafs if the ping-pong balls fall the right way.