Last summer, I did a series that went over all of the Leafs who were likely to play in the NHL that season and explored the floors and ceilings of their upcoming season. And, in the content starved month of August, I&#8217;ve decided to bring it back again.
Much like last time, I&#8217;ll be looking at the best and worst-case scenarios for all of the Leafs, and in the best-case scenarios, assuming that they won&#8217;t be traded and they will be healthy. Obviously, that won&#8217;t happen, but it&#8217;s easier to assume in this case.
One thing I will be adding is that I will also look at last year&#8217;s evaluations and see if they were closer to their floor or ceiling, to give a better idea as to what to expect.
Today, we will be looking at the Leafs centres, which still remains their biggest strength, but has seen a drastic shift with some moves this offseason.

<figure id="attachment_56675" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-56675" style="width: 1969px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-56675" src="https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg?resize=1424%2C1008&#038;ssl=1" alt="" width="1424" height="1008" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg?w=1969&amp;ssl=1 1969w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg?resize=300%2C212&amp;ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg?resize=768%2C544&amp;ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg?resize=1024%2C725&amp;ssl=1 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 1424px) 100vw, 1424px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-56675" class="wp-caption-text">Apr 21, 2019; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) warms up before playing against the Boston Bruins in game six of the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>
<h1>Auston Matthews</h1>
What happened last year? Despite missing 14 games due to a shoulder injury, Matthews still managed to surpass my floor of 65 points, with 37 goals and 73 assists in his third season. If you average it up to 82 games, he was on pace for 45 goals and 88 points, much closer to the 50 goal, 95 point season I had as his ceiling.
Ceiling: Over the course of his three-year career, Matthews has established himself as one of, if not the best, goal scorers in the NHL. At even strength alone, Matthews is first in the league with 78 goals since he entered the league, three more than Connor McDavid in second, all in 30 fewer games.
But even looking at all situations, he is still one of the best now. He&#8217;s fifth since joining the league in goals with 111, all having significantly less ice time than the four ahead of him (his roughly 3800 minutes are still another 800 behind the next closest, Nikita Kucherov). A look at his G/60 in all situations and his 1.74 ranks him first in the league (among players with at least 500 minutes).
What all this is to say that it isn&#8217;t far fetched to suggest that he can be a Rocket Richard winner. In fact, he was only four behind Crosby&#8217;s 44 in his rookie season, so who&#8217;s to say he can&#8217;t now. If Babcock reunites Nylander with Matthews, the power play sees a bit of a structural upgrade, and Matthews can stay healthy, it&#8217;s not out of the question to suggest he can hit the 50 goal mark, and get his first Rocket Richard.
Floor: It seems like last year I was playing it safe with Matthews floor, as even an injury didn&#8217;t stop him from passing the 65 point mark.
And my other concern last year was the potential for his shooting percentage to regress, and another year hovering around 15%, along with the data that he&#8217;s become arguably the best goal scorer in the league, leaves me to believe that he can sustain a shooting percentage that high.
Injuries are the big factor here, as it&#8217;s part of what&#8217;s kept him from really breaking out and being on the top of the leaderboards for goals and points (even on his own team). So, if anything is going to set his floor, it&#8217;s going to be another setback injury-wise that then sees him sit around the 35 goal, 70 point mark again.
<figure id="attachment_56838" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-56838" style="width: 2812px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-56838" src="https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg?resize=1424%2C1069&#038;ssl=1" alt="" width="1424" height="1069" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg?w=2812&amp;ssl=1 2812w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg?resize=300%2C225&amp;ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg?resize=768%2C576&amp;ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg?resize=1024%2C768&amp;ssl=1 1024w" sizes="(max-width: 1424px) 100vw, 1424px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-56838" class="wp-caption-text">Mar 2, 2019; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner (16) and Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) during warm up against the Buffalo Sabres at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>
What happened last year? Tavares has a career year in his first year as a Leaf, putting up 88 points, as well as scoring 47 goals, besting his career-high by 9. He did all of this while playing some of the tougher minutes for the team, and doing well in them. While he technically didn&#8217;t hit my ceiling of 95 points, he did just about as good as I could&#8217;ve expected, all things considered.
Ceiling: There really isn&#8217;t a whole lot to put in this category aside from what we saw last year from him. You want John Tavares, that was John Tavares at his best.
Floor: This is where there can be a bit more detail, however. There were a couple contributing factors to Tavares career year: Marner is arguably the best winger he&#8217;s ever played with (I&#8217;m not saying that his season is all because of Marner, but I&#8217;d imagine playing with a winger that isn&#8217;t Kyle Okposo or Matt Moulson would probably help you out), and a bit of help in the luck department.
Tavares alone saw a shift in his shooting percentage, as his 16.4% is a bit higher than his usual 13.3%. Marner also saw a bit of a jump in his 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage with 11.68% this season, compared to his 9.92% going into the season. Not to mention the biggest shift in Zach Hyman, who saw an increase in his individual shooting percentage by 4%.
While I doubt we see a monumental collapse from this line, I doubt that Hyman scores 21 goals, Marner has 68 assists (especially if he misses some of the year due to his contract dispute), and Tavares pots nearly 50. For Tavares specifically, it&#8217;s likely that his floor is more something along the lines of 70 points, with more assists than goals this time around.
<figure id="attachment_57097" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-57097" style="width: 850px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-57097" src="https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/07/kerfootthumb.jpg?resize=850%2C500&#038;ssl=1" alt="" width="850" height="500" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-57097" class="wp-caption-text">DENVER, CO &#8211; JANUARY 15: Alexander Kerfoot #13 of the Colorado Avalanche skates against the Anaheim Ducks at the Pepsi Center on January 15, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Avalanche defeated the Ducks 3-1. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)</figcaption></figure>
<h1>Alexander Kerfoot</h1>
(While it&#8217;s still undetermined whether Kerfoot will be a centre or a winger, I&#8217;m going to put him as a centre for the time being solely for the sake of convenience).
What happened last year? N/A
Ceiling: Up to this point in his career, Kerfoot has shown us to be a 40 point player who is also defensively responsible. A good chunk of his time has been as a winger, but as part of the return for Nazem Kadri, it&#8217;s safe to assume that the plan is for him to be Kadri&#8217;s replacement down the middle.
While the adjustment to centre could knock down his point totals, it&#8217;s also safe to assume that on his right side will either be one of Kapanen or, if Babcock is still off his rocker, Nylander. So, having a skilled player on his wing will probably help balance out his totals.
I guess at this point, his ceiling is more along the lines of him making a smooth adjustment to being a full-time centre, while seeing a similar output both offensively and defensively that he&#8217;s made throughout the early part of his career.
Floor: On the flip side, his floor could very much be the opposite, where he sees a rough transition to centre, and either turns that line into a bit of an anchor because of that, or he ends up having to be a winger and leaving a hole on the third line that is either filled by someone more capable as a fourth-line centre (Jason Spezza, Nick Shore), or someone else in the lineup who can play centre when they should be elsewhere (Nylander).
That&#8217;s not to say that putting him on the wing would be a bad thing. Kerfoot would be excellent in the top six, and it would otherwise be comfortable for him. But that would also take away from the one strength the Leafs have had the last few years: their depth down the middle.
<figure id="attachment_57839" aria-describedby="caption-attachment-57839" style="width: 4924px" class="wp-caption alignnone"><img data-recalc-dims="1" loading="lazy" decoding="async" class="size-full wp-image-57839" src="https://i0.wp.com/theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?resize=1424%2C949&#038;ssl=1" alt="" width="1424" height="949" srcset="https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?w=4924&amp;ssl=1 4924w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?resize=300%2C200&amp;ssl=1 300w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?resize=768%2C512&amp;ssl=1 768w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?resize=1024%2C683&amp;ssl=1 1024w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?w=2848&amp;ssl=1 2848w, https://i0.wp.com/publish.theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg?w=4272&amp;ssl=1 4272w" sizes="(max-width: 1424px) 100vw, 1424px" /><figcaption id="caption-attachment-57839" class="wp-caption-text">Mar 27, 2019; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Dallas Stars center Jason Spezza (90) during the third period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Dallas Stars won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports</figcaption></figure>
<h1>Jason Spezza</h1>
What happened last year? N/A
Ceiling: Spezza is far from the 80-90 point centre is he was earlier on in his career, with the past two seasons see age hit him hard and put up 26 and 27 point seasons with Dallas. With this in mind, it&#8217;s likely Spezza comes in as our safe bet as a fourth-line centre (so that we don&#8217;t have to trade a second for one this year).
But, that&#8217;s not to say that he isn&#8217;t entirely done. It&#8217;s not out of the question to think there could be a chance that he could not just be a good fourth-line centre, but an effective third-line centre. That in term would allow us to play Kerfoot up the lineup even more, and give the Leafs a stronger top six as a result.
So, the best-case scenario would be that Spezza ends up being a good third-line centre. It&#8217;s still likely that he would only top out at 30 points, but it would be more the two-way game that it would help the Leafs with.
Floor: As is the case with any player on the wrong side of 30, there&#8217;s always the risk that they end up becoming completely useless at most facets of the game. We saw that with Patrick Marleau last year, and there&#8217;s a chance that that could also happen with Spezza this year.
While his offensive numbers have fallen off, his defensive game hasn&#8217;t really seen much decline over the last few years, so that is a relatively good sign in hoping that he completely crater off this year.
But, until we see him play, we won&#8217;t know for sure, and there&#8217;s always that chance that he falls off. But unlike Marleau last season, Spezza is only signed for this year and he isn&#8217;t making $6.25 million. If he isn&#8217;t good, he can just be a healthy scratch, and we have centres capable of playing fourth-line roles as well, like Nick Shore or even Frederik Gauthier.

Last summer, I did a series that went over all of the Leafs who were likely to play in the NHL that season and explored the floors and ceilings of their upcoming season. And, in the content starved month of August, I've decided to bring it back again.

Much like last time, I'll be looking at the best and worst-case scenarios for all of the Leafs, and in the best-case scenarios, assuming that they won't be traded and they will be healthy. Obviously, that won't happen, but it's easier to assume in this case.

One thing I will be adding is that I will also look at last year's evaluations and see if they were closer to their floor or ceiling, to give a better idea as to what to expect.

Today, we will be looking at the Leafs centres, which still remains their biggest strength, but has seen a drastic shift with some moves this offseason.



[caption id="attachment_56675" align="alignnone" width="1969"]<img class="size-full wp-image-56675" src="https://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12567910_168383996_lowres.jpg" alt="" width="1969" height="1394" /> Apr 21, 2019; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs center Auston Matthews (34) warms up before playing against the Boston Bruins in game six of the first round of the 2019 Stanley Cup Playoffs at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]
<h1>Auston Matthews</h1>
What happened last year? Despite missing 14 games due to a shoulder injury, Matthews still managed to surpass my floor of 65 points, with 37 goals and 73 assists in his third season. If you average it up to 82 games, he was on pace for 45 goals and 88 points, much closer to the 50 goal, 95 point season I had as his ceiling.

Ceiling: Over the course of his three-year career, Matthews has established himself as one of, if not the best, goal scorers in the NHL. At even strength alone, Matthews is first in the league with 78 goals since he entered the league, three more than Connor McDavid in second, all in 30 fewer games.

But even looking at all situations, he is still one of the best now. He's fifth since joining the league in goals with 111, all having significantly less ice time than the four ahead of him (his roughly 3800 minutes are still another 800 behind the next closest, Nikita Kucherov). A look at his G/60 in all situations and his 1.74 ranks him first in the league (among players with at least 500 minutes).

What all this is to say that it isn't far fetched to suggest that he can be a Rocket Richard winner. In fact, he was only four behind Crosby's 44 in his rookie season, so who's to say he can't now. If Babcock reunites Nylander with Matthews, the power play sees a bit of a structural upgrade, and Matthews can stay healthy, it's not out of the question to suggest he can hit the 50 goal mark, and get his first Rocket Richard.

Floor: It seems like last year I was playing it safe with Matthews floor, as even an injury didn't stop him from passing the 65 point mark.

And my other concern last year was the potential for his shooting percentage to regress, and another year hovering around 15%, along with the data that he's become arguably the best goal scorer in the league, leaves me to believe that he can sustain a shooting percentage that high.

Injuries are the big factor here, as it's part of what's kept him from really breaking out and being on the top of the leaderboards for goals and points (even on his own team). So, if anything is going to set his floor, it's going to be another setback injury-wise that then sees him sit around the 35 goal, 70 point mark again.

[caption id="attachment_56838" align="alignnone" width="2812"]<img class="size-full wp-image-56838" src="https://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/06/USATSI_12271767.jpg" alt="" width="2812" height="2110" /> Mar 2, 2019; Toronto, Ontario, CAN; Toronto Maple Leafs forward Mitch Marner (16) and Toronto Maple Leafs forward John Tavares (91) during warm up against the Buffalo Sabres at Scotiabank Arena. Mandatory Credit: John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]

What happened last year? Tavares has a career year in his first year as a Leaf, putting up 88 points, as well as scoring 47 goals, besting his career-high by 9. He did all of this while playing some of the tougher minutes for the team, and doing well in them. While he technically didn't hit my ceiling of 95 points, he did just about as good as I could've expected, all things considered.

Ceiling: There really isn't a whole lot to put in this category aside from what we saw last year from him. You want John Tavares, that was John Tavares at his best.

Floor: This is where there can be a bit more detail, however. There were a couple contributing factors to Tavares career year: Marner is arguably the best winger he's ever played with (I'm not saying that his season is all because of Marner, but I'd imagine playing with a winger that isn't Kyle Okposo or Matt Moulson would probably help you out), and a bit of help in the luck department.

Tavares alone saw a shift in his shooting percentage, as his 16.4% is a bit higher than his usual 13.3%. Marner also saw a bit of a jump in his 5v5 on-ice shooting percentage with 11.68% this season, compared to his 9.92% going into the season. Not to mention the biggest shift in Zach Hyman, who saw an increase in his individual shooting percentage by 4%.

While I doubt we see a monumental collapse from this line, I doubt that Hyman scores 21 goals, Marner has 68 assists (especially if he misses some of the year due to his contract dispute), and Tavares pots nearly 50. For Tavares specifically, it's likely that his floor is more something along the lines of 70 points, with more assists than goals this time around.

[caption id="attachment_57097" align="alignnone" width="850"]<img class="size-full wp-image-57097" src="https://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/07/kerfootthumb.jpg" alt="" width="850" height="500" /> DENVER, CO - JANUARY 15: Alexander Kerfoot #13 of the Colorado Avalanche skates against the Anaheim Ducks at the Pepsi Center on January 15, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. The Avalanche defeated the Ducks 3-1. (Photo by Michael Martin/NHLI via Getty Images)[/caption]
<h1>Alexander Kerfoot</h1>
(While it's still undetermined whether Kerfoot will be a centre or a winger, I'm going to put him as a centre for the time being solely for the sake of convenience).

What happened last year? N/A

Ceiling: Up to this point in his career, Kerfoot has shown us to be a 40 point player who is also defensively responsible. A good chunk of his time has been as a winger, but as part of the return for Nazem Kadri, it's safe to assume that the plan is for him to be Kadri's replacement down the middle.

While the adjustment to centre could knock down his point totals, it's also safe to assume that on his right side will either be one of Kapanen or, if Babcock is still off his rocker, Nylander. So, having a skilled player on his wing will probably help balance out his totals.

I guess at this point, his ceiling is more along the lines of him making a smooth adjustment to being a full-time centre, while seeing a similar output both offensively and defensively that he's made throughout the early part of his career.

Floor: On the flip side, his floor could very much be the opposite, where he sees a rough transition to centre, and either turns that line into a bit of an anchor because of that, or he ends up having to be a winger and leaving a hole on the third line that is either filled by someone more capable as a fourth-line centre (Jason Spezza, Nick Shore), or someone else in the lineup who can play centre when they should be elsewhere (Nylander).

That's not to say that putting him on the wing would be a bad thing. Kerfoot would be excellent in the top six, and it would otherwise be comfortable for him. But that would also take away from the one strength the Leafs have had the last few years: their depth down the middle.

[caption id="attachment_57839" align="alignnone" width="4924"]<img class="size-full wp-image-57839" src="https://theleafsnation.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/2019/08/USATSI_12469277.jpg" alt="" width="4924" height="3283" /> Mar 27, 2019; Calgary, Alberta, CAN; Dallas Stars center Jason Spezza (90) during the third period against the Calgary Flames at Scotiabank Saddledome. Dallas Stars won 2-1. Mandatory Credit: Sergei Belski-USA TODAY Sports[/caption]
<h1>Jason Spezza</h1>
What happened last year? N/A

Ceiling: Spezza is far from the 80-90 point centre is he was earlier on in his career, with the past two seasons see age hit him hard and put up 26 and 27 point seasons with Dallas. With this in mind, it's likely Spezza comes in as our safe bet as a fourth-line centre (so that we don't have to trade a second for one this year).

But, that's not to say that he isn't entirely done. It's not out of the question to think there could be a chance that he could not just be a good fourth-line centre, but an effective third-line centre. That in term would allow us to play Kerfoot up the lineup even more, and give the Leafs a stronger top six as a result.

So, the best-case scenario would be that Spezza ends up being a good third-line centre. It's still likely that he would only top out at 30 points, but it would be more the two-way game that it would help the Leafs with.

Floor: As is the case with any player on the wrong side of 30, there's always the risk that they end up becoming completely useless at most facets of the game. We saw that with Patrick Marleau last year, and there's a chance that that could also happen with Spezza this year.

While his offensive numbers have fallen off, his defensive game hasn't really seen much decline over the last few years, so that is a relatively good sign in hoping that he completely crater off this year.

But, until we see him play, we won't know for sure, and there's always that chance that he falls off. But unlike Marleau last season, Spezza is only signed for this year and he isn't making $6.25 million. If he isn't good, he can just be a healthy scratch, and we have centres capable of playing fourth-line roles as well, like Nick Shore or even Frederik Gauthier.

Highs and Lows for 2019: The Centres

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