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Kessel Negotiations Won Before Even Finished

By Jeff Veillette

Sep 30, 2013, 23:43 EDT

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So, as you’re probably well aware of (if you arent..), Phil Kessel is closing in on an extension with the Toronto Maple Leafs before tomorrow’s opening night puck drop. The speculation is that he’ll take in and around $8 million per year over 8 years, locking him up until he’s 34 years old. People are debating whether this is the right choice.

What? This is crazy. If he’s asking for $8.5 million right now, the Leafs would win these negotiations without even negotiating. Anything now is gravy.

Lets look at prior history. Specifically, high production wingers going into their first contract with UFA years, between the ages of 25-28 in their contract years, in the salary cap era. You get the following players, with their contracts, and their adjusted contracts (cap inflation and removal of "circumvention" years after year 8)

Player	Contract	Contract Year	Adjusted Contract
Phil Kessel	TO BE DETERMINED	2012/13	TO BE DETERMINED
Patrick Marleau	2 years @ 6.3 M	2007/08	2 years @ 7.14 M
Henrik Zetterberg	12 years @ 6.083 M	2008/09	8 years @ 8.58 M
Marian Gaborik	5 years @ 7.5 M	2008/09	5 years @ 8.49 M
Zach Parise	12 years @ 7.538 M	2011/12	8 years @ 9.16 M
Dany Heatley	6 years @ 7.5 M	2006/07	6 years @ 9.59 M
Rick Nash	8 years @ 7.8 M	2009/10	8 years @ 8.44 M
Daniel Sedin	5 years @ 6.1 M	2008/09	5 years @ 6.91 M
Corey Perry	8 years @ 8.625 M	2011/12	8 years @ 8.625 M
Ilya Kovalchuk	15 years @ 6.67 M	2009/10	8 years @ 10.69 M

An average contract in this class comes out to 6 years @ 8.625 million. Seeing as all of them other than Gaborik and Parise signed with the teams they were with, it’s not crazy to assume that the average would be much higher with free agency shift arounds.

Here’s a comparison of their production in their contract years:

Player	Contract Year	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PM	PIM	S	S%	TOI
Phil Kessel	2012/13	25	48	20	32	52	-3	18	161	12.4	951
Patrick Marleau	2007/08	28	78	19	29	48	9	33	185	10.3	1422
Henrik Zetterberg	2008/09	28	77	31	42	73	13	36	309	10	1531
Marian Gaborik	2008/09	26	17	13	10	23	3	2	68	19.1	340
Zach Parise	2011/12	27	82	31	38	69	-5	32	293	10.6	1762
Dany Heatley	2006/07	26	82	50	55	105	31	74	310	16.1	1725
Rick Nash	2009/10	25	76	33	34	67	-2	58	254	13	1591
Daniel Sedin	2008/09	28	82	31	51	82	24	36	285	10.9	1541
Corey Perry	2011/12	26	80	37	23	60	-7	127	277	13.4	1710
Ilya Kovalchuk	2009/10	26	76	41	44	85	10	53	290	14.1	1675

And adjusted to 82 games @ 20 minutes per game:

Player	Contract Year	Age	GP	G	A	PTS	PM	PIM	S	S%	TOI
Phil Kessel	2012/13	25	82	34	55	89	-5	31	277	12.4	1640
Patrick Marleau	2007/08	28	82	21	33	54	10	38	213	10.3	1640
Henrik Zetterberg	2008/09	28	82	33	45	78	13	38	330	10	1640
Marian Gaborik	2008/09	26	82	62	48	110	14	9	328	19.1	1640
Zach Parise	2011/12	27	82	28	35	63	-4	29	272	10.6	1640
Dany Heatley	2006/07	26	82	47	52	99	29	70	294	16.1	1640
Rick Nash	2009/10	25	82	34	35	69	-2	59	261	13	1640
Daniel Sedin	2008/09	28	82	32	54	86	25	38	303	10.9	1640
Corey Perry	2011/12	26	82	35	22	57	-6	121	265	13.4	1640
Ilya Kovalchuk	2009/10	26	82	40	43	83	9	51	283	14.1	1640

His production is right up amongst the best, only being outscored by Gaborik and his 17 game sample size, and Heatley, who who was the trigger man on one of the most stacked lines in modern hockey, rather than playing with Tyler Bozak. On top of that, this is a man who’s health has been fantastic since coming here, not missing a single game in Toronto since he hit the ice for the first time.

Simply put, Phil Kessel is in elite company for this contract negotiation scenario. He’s asking for a more than reasonable amount right off the hop, because honestly, he could easily get over 9M on July 1st. The fact he isn’t even asking for that is huge. Start celebrating.