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Leafs Postgame: Luck of the Draw

By Jeff Veillette

Feb 7, 2017, 23:17 ESTUpdated:

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Photo Credit: Tom Szczerbowski/USA TODAY SPORTS

The Toronto Maple Leafs have been struggling defensively of late, more so than even the most awful of defensive teams should. Twenty-two goals in four games exceeds incompetence and spill over into sheer rough luck, and the hope was that the scales would find balance at some point.

Well, the Leafs scored three goals tonight, and only allowed one, but more importantly, they won the real game, out-drawing the Dallas Stars 33-31 at the faceoff dot.

The Rundown

Per	Str	Time:	Event	Description	Goal?
1	EV	0:00	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	EV	0:19	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
1	EV	0:59	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
1	EV	3:13	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #16 MARNER	No
1	EV	4:35	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
1	EV	5:21	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	EV	8:05	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	EV	8:28	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
1	EV	8:49	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
1	EV	9:06	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #42 BOZAK	Yes
1	EV	9:09	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
1	EV	10:35	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
1	EV	13:01	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	EV	13:23	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
1	EV	14:57	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
1	EV	15:27	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	EV	15:58	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
1	EV	17:31	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
1	SH	18:02	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #10 SHARP vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	PP	0:00	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	PP	0:43	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	4:38	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #10 SHARP vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
2	EV	6:32	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
2	PP	7:18	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
2	SH	8:36	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
2	EV	9:37	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	11:00	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	11:22	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
2	EV	12:09	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
2	EV	12:19	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
2	PP	12:27	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
2	EV	15:39	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	15:47	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #14 BENN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	17:28	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	Yes
2	EV	17:32	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #21 ROUSSEL vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
2	EV	18:13	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
2	EV	18:20	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
2	EV	19:35	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	EV	0:00	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	0:06	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	0:19	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	0:58	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #17 SHORE vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	EV	1:46	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #10 SHARP vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	2:25	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
3	EV	2:39	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
3	PP	3:58	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
3	EV	4:00	FAC	DAL won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	Yes
3	EV	4:14	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	PP	4:53	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	PP	5:47	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	PP	6:09	FAC	TOR won Off. Zone – DAL #12 FAKSA vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	SH	6:57	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	SH	7:10	FAC	DAL won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #42 BOZAK	Yes*
3	PP	7:26	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #14 BENN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	PP	8:48	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #27 CRACKNELL vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	10:34	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #17 SHORE vs TOR #42 BOZAK	No
3	EV	10:50	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
3	EV	10:57	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
3	EV	13:07	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
3	PP	14:31	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #91 SEGUIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
3	EV	16:43	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No
3	EV	16:51	FAC	TOR won Def. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #18 SMITH	No
3	EV	18:27	FAC	DAL won Off. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #34 MATTHEWS	No
3	EV	18:34	FAC	TOR won Neu. Zone – DAL #20 EAKIN vs TOR #43 KADRI	No

*Technically speaking, the team that won the draw tried to dump it out and failed to and then the Leafs scored fifteen or so seconds later but that’s basically a faceoff win when you think about it, their quick thinking clearly gave the Leafs faceoff intangibles.

Why The Leafs Won

Because of this faceoff:

And this faceoff:

But not this faceoff:

And I’m sure something happened with this faceoff:

Blue Warrior

I’ve decided to use analytics tonight to decide the Blue Warrior, since I haven’t done that in a while and the people in the comments are very concerned for my well being.

Tonight’s Blue Warrior goes to Auston Matthews, who rose to the occasion by most exceeding his full-season faceoff percentage. I could give it to Jake Gardiner, who had a goal, a point-shot assist, and led all Leafs defencemen (by a significant margin) with a 57.89% Corsi-For percentage, but he probably just got lucky that his mental lapses didn’t come to haunt him tonight. No, it has to go to Auston; the proof is in the pudding.

Player	Tonight	Season	FO +/-
Auston Matthews	53%	45.10%	7.900%
Nazem Kadri	53%	46.20%	6.800%
Tyler Bozak	56%	56.40%	-0.400%
Ben Smith	40%	52.40%	-12.400%

Matthews’ goal, tonight, by the way? Made possible by winning his own faceoff.

See You Next Time

That was a great win, but now it’s off to Thursday night for the Leafs, as they take on the St. Louis Blues at 7:30 PM. The Blues are going to be tough to beat; not only did they defeat the Leafs 5-1 last time, and not only did they just blow out Ottawa by a 6-0 Margin, but Paul Statsny’s faceoff percentage is up to 55.4%. That’s some scary stuff; Toronto better have Ben Smith as ready as he can be.