Our good friends over at Oilersnation occasionally get their hands some pretty neat proprietary data that we don’t get a chance to see in the wild too often, and today they had an article featuring some controlled entry data from SportsLogiq. If you are interested in reading the full summary of the data, you can check out their post below…
If you are here for the Leafs centric look at the numbers, we’ve got you covered here. If you’ve taken a glance at the original Oilers Nation post, you’ll see that I’ve jazzed up the numbers below with rate stats to give it a bit more perspective as well…
PLAYER
TEAM
TOI
5X5 PTS
CONTROLLED ENTRIES
CE WITH SCA
CE WITH SCA RATE
CONTROLLED ENTRIES/60
Scoring Chance off of Entry/60
KASPERI KAPANEN
TORONTO
851
27
227
72
31.70%
16.00
5.08
AUSTON MATTHEWS
TORONTO
1151
45
285
80
28.10%
14.86
4.17
WILLIAM NYLANDER
TORONTO
981
38
240
73
30.40%
14.68
4.46
MITCHELL MARNER
TORONTO
883
32
216
71
32.90%
14.68
4.82
DENIS MALGIN
TORONTO
458
7
112
23
20.50%
14.67
3.01
ILYA MIKHEYEV
TORONTO
515
21
104
27
26.00%
12.12
3.15
ANDREAS JOHNSSON
TORONTO
560
14
113
37
32.70%
12.11
3.96
JOHN TAVARES
TORONTO
968
29
188
44
23.40%
11.65
2.73
JASON SPEZZA
TORONTO
544
18
101
18
17.80%
11.14
1.99
ZACH HYMAN
TORONTO
787
24
138
38
27.50%
10.52
2.90
ALEXANDER KERFOOT
TORONTO
831
25
144
37
25.70%
10.40
2.67
So at a first glance, I’d say the Penguins are likely a team that looks at Controlled Entries and puts a lot of stock in them. Additionally, I’d say that I was a bit surprised to see that Marner fared well in this regard, and that he was right in there with @William Nylander and @Auston Matthews when looking by rate instead of count.
The fact that Tavares, Hyman, Kerfoot were as low as they were might speak to why Tavares might have struggled more this year, as the line could have benefited from a second strong puck carrier on the other wing to offset that Tavares wasn’t carrying the puck into the zone himself. A case can be made that Johnsson or Mikheyev are better suited to play him with Hyman or Kerfoot, but when you consider how Kapanen and Tavares didn’t work either it’s a reminder that there’s more to this than looking at one stat in isolation.
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I’m legitimately surprised by @Denis Malgin doing as well as he did in this regard, and while I noted above that going all in on one stat isn’t ideal, part of me wants to explore the idea of Malgin as a thirteenth forward at the very least and give him an extended look as a Leaf.
The data shared by Jason Gregor in his post was limited to players with 100 controlled entries, and as such we don’t have data for the other Leafs forwards, nor do we have it for @Evan Rodrigues.
Just to put some of this data in context, we’ll take a look at the top 20 players in Controlled Entries per 60 around the league…
PLAYER
TEAM
TOI
5X5 PTS
CONTROLLED ENTRIES
CE WITH SCA
CE WITH SCA RATE
CONTROLLED ENTRIES/60
Scoring Chance off of Entry/60
MATHEW BARZAL
NYI
1103
39
395
112
28.40%
21.49
6.09
NATHAN MACKINNON
COLORADO
1075
52
378
135
35.70%
21.10
7.53
TAYLOR HALL
ARIZONA
924
30
319
96
30.10%
20.71
6.23
CONNOR MCDAVID
EDMONTON
1055
50
357
122
34.20%
20.30
6.94
BRAYDEN POINT
TAMPA BAY
943
44
315
98
31.10%
20.04
6.24
NIKOLAJ EHLERS
WINNIPEG
1013
46
336
97
28.90%
19.90
5.75
PATRICK KANE
CHICAGO
1140
50
370
104
28.10%
19.47
5.47
DAVID PASTRNAK
BOSTON
985
48
318
69
21.70%
19.37
4.20
JACK EICHEL
BUFFALO
1124
35
360
85
23.60%
19.22
4.54
JOHNNY GAUDREAU
CALGARY
1020
30
320
98
30.60%
18.82
5.76
VINCENT TROCHECK
CAROLINA
831
26
260
64
24.60%
18.77
4.62
PIERRE-LUC DUBOIS
COLUMBUS
987
33
307
85
27.70%
18.66
5.17
BLAKE COLEMAN
TAMPA BAY
587
24
180
47
26.10%
18.40
4.80
ARTEMI PANARIN
NYR
1078
59
323
98
30.30%
17.98
5.45
TIMO MEIER
SAN JOSE
960
36
284
82
28.90%
17.75
5.13
LEON DRAISAITL
EDMONTON
1163
56
344
104
30.20%
17.75
5.37
MAX DOMI
MONTREAL
961
27
281
77
27.40%
17.54
4.81
ANDRE BURAKOVSKY
COLORADO
705
30
204
61
29.90%
17.36
5.19
KEVIN FIALA
MINNESOTA
774
34
223
61
27.40%
17.29
4.73
Kasperi Kapanen was ranked 37th in the league in controlled entries per 60, and Auston Matthews was 54th.
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The names on the list are a lot of the players you’d expect to see on the list, but peppered with mild surprises like @Vincent Trocheck, @Blake Coleman, and @Andre Burakovsky
In taking a look at some of the unrestricted free agent options available at forward this summer, it looks like @Wayne Simmonds might be one of the stronger options available although none of the names I cherry picked are coming off strong a season with strong controlled entry rates…
PLAYER
TEAM
TOI
5X5 PTS
CONTROLLED ENTRIES
CE WITH SCA
CE WITH SCA RATE
CONTROLLED ENTRIES/60
Scoring Chance off of Entry/60
WAYNE SIMMONDS
BUFFALO
802
13
161
34
21.10%
12.04
2.54
ALEX GALCHENYUK
MINNESOTA
609
17
106
29
27.40%
10.44
2.86
COREY PERRY
DALLAS
636
13
106
24
22.60%
10.00
2.26
PAT MAROON
TAMPA BAY
678
20
110
21
19.10%
9.73
1.86
CARL SODERBERG
ARIZONA
862
22
110
34
30.90%
7.66
2.37
It would be interesting to see this data split out from the Babcock and Keefe eras as there is a chance that the numbers might be more exaggerated under Keefe than the much more conservative coaching style of Babcock. As with most things context is key, and if looking at Controlled Entries in isolation can’t tell a full story. One of Gregor’s findings was that the Avalanche were the leaders with having 12 players exceed 100 controlled entries, the Leafs sat at 11 players, perhaps this is speaking to entering by committee rather than relying on the star players to handle the workload themselves. Gregor also notes that Patrice Bergeron only had 85 controlled entries last season, so using this as a measure of success for forwards or the success of a line might be ill advised.
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The controlled entry numbers are an interesting piece of information to tuck into your back pocket and pull out to look at other data, but it’s still nice to see strong numbers from Matthews, Marner, and Nylander nevertheless.