Over the last few drafts, the Leafs have zeroed in on players who took significant steps in the second half of their respective draft years. Matthew Knies started slowly in the USHL during the 2020-21 season for a variety of reasons before breaking out and taking his game to another level down the stretch. Easton Cowan began the 2022-23 season as a depth contributor for the London Knights but came on strong later in the season and carried that over to the postseason, where he was one of the Knights’ most productive players on a long playoff run.

Both of those players continued on a steep upward trajectory to the point where Knies is already a key contributor for the Leafs and one of the most exciting young players in the league, while Cowan has become one of the top prospects in junior hockey and someone who should be an impact player in the NHL sooner rather than later.

The Leafs followed a similar template with their first pick in the 2024 draft, selecting defenceman Ben Danford from the Oshawa Generals after his strong postseason performance helped lead his club to the OHL finals last spring. Unfortunately, things haven’t taken off for Danford in the same way as they did for Knies and Cowan in the immediate aftermath of his selection in the draft.

It’s important to note that the things that make Danford an intriguing defensive prospect are far more difficult to quantify through box score stats and highlights. Still, the hope was that he could take his offensive game to another level in his draft+1 season, and that hasn’t happened yet.

Danford began the season behind the eight ball, suffering a concussion in Toronto’s rookie camp that forced him to miss main camp and the entirety of the preseason before he was sent back to the OHL. He only missed the first four games of the Generals’ regular season, but returning from injury and being thrust into the lineup had to feel a bit like jumping onto a moving train.

After posting 33 points in 64 games a season ago, Danford started this season with just three assists in his first 12 games. His offensive output has come around a bit since then, but he has been held off the scoresheet in the last four games and currently sits at two goals and six assists through 23 games on the season. We can debate the merits of +/- as a valuable statistic, but extreme outliers or sizeable shifts in one direction or the other can help to tell a story. Despite his middling offensive numbers, Danford finished last season with a +27 rating, illustrating his importance to the Generals as a shutdown presence. This season, however, Danford owns a -4 rating, indicating that the Generals have not won his minutes to nearly the same degree as they did in the 2023-24 season.

The Generals are still one of the top teams in the OHL so far this season, and as their captain and most heavily relied-upon blueliner, Danford is an important member of their squad who has helped lead them to a 16-9-2 record. There is still plenty of hockey left to play this season, and Danford’s calling card will never be his offensive prowess, but he will need to take a step in that area while continuing to refine his play on the other side of the puck if he is going to grow into a top-four option for the Leafs down the road.

Notes from the rest of the prospect pool:

Easton Cowan remains on the shelf after missing London’s last four games with a lower-body injury, putting his regular-season point streak on hold for the time being. There has been no news regarding the severity of the injury or a potential timeline for his return, but Cowan’s inclusion on Canada’s selection camp roster for the upcoming World Juniors is a promising sign that he isn’t expected to be out of action long-term.
Fraser Minten helped set up Nick Robertson’s slump-busting goal against the Lightning on Saturday night, giving him three points through four games with the Leafs this season. He has been productive in a small sample size, but the underlying numbers haven’t been pretty, as Minten has routinely played alongside other Marlies call-ups or fringe NHLers since joining the roster. As the Leafs continue to get healthy, it will be interesting to see if Minten gets an opportunity to play with more established NHL talent and if that helps his strong defensive instincts translate to better underlying numbers or whether the Leafs opt to send him back to the AHL for further seasoning.