The Toronto Maple Leafs will wrap up their highly successful regular season when they host the Detroit Red Wings Thursday evening.

Game 1 of the Leafs first round series versus the Ottawa Senators will take place Sunday Night at 7:00 EST, and as they are officially guaranteed to be the second seed in the Eastern Conference, their only goal in this matchup is to avoid injury in their final tune-up for a critical playoff run.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Thanks to yet another highly disappointing month of March, the Red Wings will have to wait at least one more year to snap their lengthy playoff drought. Detroit enters this matchup with a record of 39-35-7, and a goal differential of -20.

Appointing Todd McLellan as head coach did spark a bit of a midseason upswing for the Wings, but all in all, they are a team that appears to be deserving of finishing outside of the postseason. Since McLellan was hired the Wings are 26-17-3, which was not quite enough of an improvement to steal a playoff spot.

They hold a 51.11% expected goal share under McLellan, which is a stark improvement compared to earlier in the campaign and a positive to point towards surrounding next season, in which McLellan will have a whole training camp to work with.

Another cause for optimism regarding the Wings moving forward is that the majority of the team’s key young pieces, such as Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider, and Simon Edvinsson, all had stellar seasons, which suggests if they can replace veterans such as Ben Chiarot and Jeff Petry with replacement-level skaters, they could finally start to find more success next season.

21-year-old Marco Kasper has also had a surprisingly excellent season, entering this matchup with 19 goals and 17 assists in 76 games played. The majority of Kasper’s production has come under McLellan, as he has scored 17 goals and 29 points in 47 games since McLellan took over as bench boss.

Petr Mrazek has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .891 save percentage and 3.35 GAA in 38 appearances this season.

Regardless of the outcome of tonight’s meaningless game, the Leafs appear to be heading into what should be an extremely fun first-round series in strong form. Toronto won a highly competitive race for the Atlantic Division title with a 12-2-1 record down the stretch, and allowed just 2.00 goals against per game in that span.

By no means has Joseph Woll been bad down the stretch, but Anthony Stolarz has solidified himself as the Game 1 starter with an 8-0-0 record and .950 save percentage throughout his final eight games. It appears likely that Woll will start tonight’s game as a result, as the team appears to be making a logical decision to rest their top goaltender in Stolarz.

Woll holds a +16.9 GSAx and .909 save percentage in 41 games played this season.

Due to salary cap constraints, the Leafs do not have the luxury of skating a skeleton lineup as we have seen many other teams with no incentive to win do over the last several nights.

The Leafs will be without a couple of key defensive pieces as Jake McCabe and Oliver Ekman Larsson will remain sidelined, while David Kampf is also not expected to play.

A meaningless Game 82 provides a high level of volatility from a betting perspective. While the Leafs wouldn’t hate to offer a sharp performance in this matchup, it’s possible that a lack of urgency could be a problem, and they may simply be going through the motions.

This seems like a fitting matchup to stick with a smaller bet on a longshot prop, and at +350, backing Kasper to score looks to be a suitable option. Kasper will earn a hefty bonus if he is able to score his 20th goal of the season in this matchup, and his second half production suggests +350 is a great number regardless of whether or not you put some stock in to the fact that he should be extra motivated.

Kasper has put up nine goals over the last 22 games, and continues be more more productive playing on the second line alongside Patrick Kane and Alex DeBrincat, as well as the second power play unit.