The Toronto Maple Leafs have the opportunity to grab a stranglehold in the Atlantic Division race when they host the Florida Panthers Wednesday evening.

The Panthers suffered a shocking overtime loss Tuesday against the Montreal Canadiens, after falling in regulation on home ice against the Canadiens on Saturday. They will look to respond in the second leg of a back-to-back in this matchup, and are 7-4-0 in the second leg of back-to-backs so far this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Panthers have looked more mortal recently, as they are just 4-5-1 over the last ten games, which has greatly reduced their chances of winning the division.

Over the last 10 games, the Panthers have scored just 2.1 goals per game. As the offence has looked much more stagnant, Matthew Tkachuk’s absence is starting to look more prominent. They have generated 3.32 xGF/60 in that span, so some positive regression offensively is likely on the horizon.

Defensively, the Panthers have also been less dominant recently, as they have allowed 2.90 xGA/60 over the last 10 games. One major cause of their defensive regression has been the addition of Seth Jones, as the 30-year-old has been unable to improve upon his poor play with the Chicago Blackhawks earlier this season.

While Jones has mainly been partnered with one of the games very best defenders in Gustav Forsling, the results have still been below average. In 161 minutes of play, Jones and Forsling hold a 48 percent expected goal share and have been outscored 6-4. Considering how Forsling’s pairing has typically dominated over the last two seasons, Florida will be a considerably less formidable side if the top pairing continues to play poorly.

On top of Tkachuk, Aaron Ekblad (suspension) and Dmitri Kulikov will remain absent from the lineup.

After serving as backup last night versus the Canadiens, Sergei Bobrovsky is expected to get the start in goal. Bobrovsky holds a +10.6 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 49 appearances this season.

The Leafs hold a considerable rest advantage in this matchup, having not played since finishing their California road trip Sunday evening with a win over the Anaheim Ducks. Florida will be playing its third game in four nights and fourth game since Friday in this matchup.

There is no excuse for Toronto not looking like the fresher side in this game, which could potentially help alleviate some of the concerns we have typically seen when the Leafs play the Panthers.

As Max Pacioretty is the only noteworthy skater sidelined due to injury, the Leafs will also be enjoying the luxury of playing at close to full strength. Nobody is going to be overly moved by Toronto’s regular season play one way or the other, but it will be quite concerning if they can not finally best the Panthers in this spot.

The Leafs are in the midst of a solid 6-3-1 run, but their underlying results do remain unconvincing. They have allowed 3.17 xGA/60 in that span, which ranks 19th in the NHL. As I have noted previously, expected goals against per 60 was a huge indicator of success last season, as three of the four Conference Finalists finished in the top six, and the champion Panthers finished second.

While the Leafs have not been overly sharp defensively since the end of November, the roster composition suggests this team should be capable of defending at a higher level. Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev provide one of the best shutdown pairings in the league, and Morgan Rielly and Brandon Carlo should provide a competent top unit.

Auston Matthews is one of the best two-way centers in the game and is well supported by two excellent defensive forwards in Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies. While Matthews and Marner have offered disappointing production come playoff time, the numbers show that they have done a good job of shutting down opposing stars.

The Leafs’ third line of Scott Laughton, Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok has also looked better in each of the last two matchups and could be critical to the team’s success this spring if they are able to play an effective shutdown role.

Perhaps the greatest cause for optimism surrounding the Leafs right now has been the team’s power play, which has succeeded on 39.5 percent of opportunities since March 1st. Toronto has played a ton of ‘coin-flip’ type games in recent postseasons, and an elite power play would go a long way to helping the team pull out more of those games.

Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +16.3 GSAx rating this season, and has won each of his last three starts.

This presents as an excellent opportunity for the Leafs to earn their first win of the season over the Panthers. Rested home teams have fared very well this season in matchups versus visiting teams playing back-to-back, and Florida’s play has taken a step backwards since acquiring Jones.

Toronto has much to prove in its remaining matchups versus high-quality opponents, but its performance in Los Angeles on Saturday was a step in the right direction. At -110 we are getting a good price to back the Leafs taking advantage of this favourable spot and solidifying their hopes of winning the division.