The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to grab a stranglehold in the series when the Battle of Ontario shifts to the Canadian Tire Centre Thursday evening for Game 3.

While the Leafs have been deserving winners in both matchups of the series, the games have been close enough to suggest the series is not over just yet. Earning a 3-0 lead in any NHL series has proven difficult historically, as since the 2015-16 playoffs, teams that are down two games to none are 26-19 in Game 3, and betting on every one of those teams would have yielded a +14.8% ROI.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

For all the time spent debating the refereeing in this series and the chances that Ottawa has been able to generate in trailing game scripts, it’s hard to dispute that Toronto has been the better team so far and is deserving of a two-game lead.

The Leafs have done a good job of controlling play in tie games in this series, especially early on in both games, which allowed them to play with a lead and sink into head coach Craig Berube’s defensive system designed to limit true breakdowns and suppress high-quality scoring chances.

The Leafs hold a 48.5% expected goal share at even strength, but that’s having spent the majority of time playing from ahead in the first two games. Anthony Stolarz has been sharp with a +0.8 GSAx rating and has certainly outplayed Linus Ullmark, but it’s not as if Toronto has only won because it has received better goaltending.

It will be interesting to see how things look if the Leafs have a lesser start in this matchup and potentially end up trailing for the first time in this series, as they have not yet played from behind. While in general it’s logical to assume all teams are offering close to maximum intensity in every playoff game, the statistics regarding teams playing in Game 3 with a 2-0 lead in the series do suggest it can be hard to match the desperation level of their opponent.

It has been confirmed that Max Pacioretty will return to the Leafs’ lineup in this matchup and will take over Nick Robertson’s spot on the third line. Robertson has had a poor start to the series, so it certainly seems to be a logical move to insert Pacioretty into his spot on a third line which has struggled at times.

While the Leafs have not been all that much better at even strength than they were last season versus the Boston Bruins in Round One, if at all, the red-hot play of the five-forward power play unit has been a critical edge in this series. The Leafs have already tallied three power-play goals in the series, while the Senators have struck just once with the man advantage.

It’s probably the biggest cliché in hockey, but head coach Travis Green will certainly be adamantly telling his team they need to get off to a much stronger start in this game and keep their emotions in check to avoid taking needless penalties early on in this game.

Toronto has been the better team so far, but there were some strengths for the Senators to build off of in Game 2. While the Leafs were not entirely incentivized to press for offence up two goals in Game 2, the Senators allowed very few quality scoring chances after John Tavares stretched the Leafs lead to two with a power play marker in the first. It seems reasonable to believe the Senators are capable of forcing low-event ‘coin-flip’-type games with the Leafs at even strength, but they will need Ullmark to elevate his level closer to that of his counterpart in Stolarz.

The quality of scoring chances Toronto is getting on the power play has certainly played a big role in the perceived goaltending disparity too, though, and if the Leafs power play continues succeeding as it has early on, it’s difficult to imagine this becoming a series.

After a quiet performance in Game 1, Brady Tkachuk was much more noticeable in Game 2, recording a goal, five shots, and nine shot attempts. In 12:42 of time on ice, Ottawa’s top line of Tkachuk, Tim Stutzle, and Claude Giroux outshot the Leafs 6-2 and out-attempted the Leafs 21-to-5.

Now that Green holds last change, he should be able to cherry-pick some more favourable spots to use his top line to try and help them do damage at even strength.

Oddsmakers are certainly giving plenty of credit to the ‘can’t lose’ nature of this matchup for the Senators, as suddenly they are betting favorites as the series goes to Ottawa. As I’ve outlined before, the ROI% of road teams in the playoffs over a massive sample, proves home-ice advantage is widely overrated.

The five-on-five gameplay in this series has been close, and the Senators should be capable of making this into another very close matchup in a desperate effort to save their season, but it’s still hard to suggest there is any value in backing them as a favorite.

The Senators top line was highly effective in Game 2, and generated a ton of chances. Ottawa is never going to find its way back from an 0-3 hole, so Green should have a do-or-die mindset to his deployment in this matchup, which should mean huge minutes for the Sens’ top trio.

Tkachuk had five shots on goal from nine shot attempts in Game 2, and at -139, there looks to be value in backing the Sens’ captain to record at least four shots on goal in this matchup.