The Toronto Maple Leafs will have one last chance to prove that this year is different and prevent the start of an offseason which would likely bring about meaningful change to the roster core.

The defending champion Florida Panthers were better than the Leafs in every aspect of the game in their commanding 6-1 win in Game 5, and have the chance to move into the Eastern Conference final with a win on home ice Friday. The Leafs are massive underdogs at +300 at the time of filing, having been heavily outplayed in the last two games of the series.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Out of all of their performances in the most critical games during the ‘Core Four’ era, the Leafs 6-1 loss in Game 5 had to be the worst one. Joseph Woll had a strong start to Game 5 to keep the score tied at zero for over 15 minutes but fell apart after finally faltering late in the first period.

The statistics from Game 5 paint the matchup in a slightly more favourable light than you would expect watching the game, as the Panthers held just a 3.15 to 2.71 edge in expected goal share. Toronto’s defensive miscues were drastically more significant, and Sergei Bobrovsky outperformed Woll in goal.

Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner had their worst performances of the postseason and finished with a combined -4 rating. It’s been easier to stomach their lack of production at times because they have at least fared well defensively, but they had a horrific performance in that regard in Game 5, while combining for zero points.

If the Leafs’ top six fails to produce once again in this matchup, it leaves them in a very tough spot offensively. While the Leafs’ highest-salaried forwards are rightfully catching all the flak for an awful performance in Game 5, the low-quality play from further down the lineup also remains an issue.

With the ‘core four’ off the ice this postseason, the Leafs have been outscored 11-5. The Leafs’ bottom six has combined to produce just three goals in 12 games this postseason. While a lack of production from the bottom six would be livable if they were defending at a high level, the bottom two units have been outscored and outchanced, which makes the struggles of Matthews and Marner even more of an issue.

At the time of writing, it has not yet been confirmed who will start in goal for the Leafs, but Anthony Stolarz is considered doubtful. That means it will likely be Joseph Woll getting the start, who will be looking to bounce back from an ugly showing in Game 5.

Woll holds a -2.7 GSAx rating and .877 save percentage in five games this postseason.

The Panthers have shown their championship mettle after falling into a 2-0 deficit in this series, as over the last three games they have outscored the Leafs 12 to 5 and clearly been the better side. In those matchups, the Panthers hold a 60.42% expected goal share in even-strength play and have generated 33.0 shots for per 60.

The Leafs took advantage of some below-average play from Bobrovsky earlier in the series, but he has stabilized over the last two games, stopping 54 of 55 shots faced. He now holds a +7.6 GSAx rating over the last two postseasons, which has been more than enough for the Panthers to find success given their tremendous defensive play.

The Panthers have allowed just 2.07 xGA/60 in even-strength play in the series and have obviously done a much better job of locking down the Leafs’ top stars in each of the last two matchups. Head coach Paul Maurice will likely attempt to employ Gustav Forsling’s pairing and Aleksander Barkov’s line head-to-head with the Matthews line in this matchup as much as possible, which will make it tough for the Leafs’ dynamic duo to live up to expectations once again in this pressure packed spot.

It’s difficult to imagine the Leafs offering a comparably awful performance in this matchup as they did in Game 5. While they have generally disappointed in all big games throughout this current era, they have generally lost those games in ultra-close, heartbreaking fashion and not simply been blown out of the water entirely, as we saw in Game 5.

From a defensive perspective, the Leafs have plenty of room to grow in this game and should be able to offer a sharper performance with their season on the line. Toronto’s offensive production could remain a big concern in this matchup, however, as Matthews and Marner continue to fail to produce in the biggest moments, while the bottom six has contributed next to nothing.

Backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals worked out once again in Game 5, and appears to provide value once again in Game 6, as all of the same arguments in favour of the play remain in place.