The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to close out a one-sided Battle of Ontario when they take on the Ottawa Senators in Game 4 Saturday evening.  On a game-by-game basis it’s perfectly reasonable that the Leafs are up 3-0, but the games have been competitive enough that oddsmakers still make the Senators a slight favourite in this matchup.

Historic results show that it is very difficult to win four straight in any NHL series, as teams that have lost three consecutive games are 90-67 in the next game dating back to the 2005-06 postseason.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

One of the key reasons why many observers believe the Leafs are a different team this season under Craig Berube has been their ability to emerge victorious in one-goal games, and that narrative has come to fruition in the Leafs’ back-to-back overtime victories in this series.

Game 3 was another closely contested affair that saw each team generate a nearly identical amount of chances. The Leafs generated 2.27 expected goals for compared to the Senators total of 2.25, and both teams recorded 20 shots on goal.

The Leafs high-end offensive stars have come to play in this series, as Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews, William Nylander, John Tavares, and Matthew Knies have combined for 21 points in the first three games. Toronto has offered a solid team game overall, but its elite forwards making more high-end plays is one of the main reasons they’re up 3-0 in a series that has been closely contested from a territorial perspective.

The Leafs did well to avoid being complacent in Game 3 and match the Senators intensity in what was more or less a do-or-die game on home ice. While it’s not as though the Leafs have been heavily outplaying the Senators by any means, it has felt as though Toronto has been much more comfortable in this series than in years past during the Sheldon Keefe era.

Max Pacioretty had a solid performance in his series debut in Game 3, and the Leafs’ third line was much more effective than it had been earlier in the series with Nick Robertson on the wing. In 8:25 of even-strength play, the Leafs third line outshot the Senators 5-3 and held a 53.8% expected goal share.

If the Leafs bottom six can continue to chip in offensively, it would be a bonus, but if Toronto can just play even in the bottom six minutes, the team should have an excellent chance of finishing up this series Saturday. The top offensive stars have all played well at even strength in this series, and it seems likely that the Leafs will continue winning the special teams battle.

It’s also helped that the Leafs are finally enjoying being healthy at the right time, with Jani Hakanpaa being the only skater on the IR.

It’s a common cliché in the hockey world that earning the fourth win is the most difficult, and that should prove particularly true as the Senators look to avoid what would be an embarrassing sweep. As noted in the preview, teams that have lost three straight playoff games are 90-67 in the next game dating back to 2005-06. That stat suggests it would be foolish to expect the Senators to show any quit despite the gigantic challenge they face in attempting to become just the fifth team to come back from a 3-0 series deficit in NHL history.

After a sloppy, disconnected performance in Game 1, the Senators probably feel good about their performances in Games 2 and 3, but that point could be taken as a negative from a Sens perspective.

From an effort and structure standpoint, the Senators can probably feel as though they have been right here with Toronto in this series and do seem right in feeling frustrated not to have earned at least one win. The Leafs have more high-end talent and a goaltender in better form, though, which has allowed them to find a way through the last two closely contested matchups.

Jake Sanderson was outspoken in his belief that Ottawa has deserved better results in this series. Sanderson has performed quite well while playing hefty minutes in this series, which probably has made the last two losses feel more unlucky than they even are. The Senators defensive core is also fighting an uneven battle compared to the Leafs, given that Toronto has more elite offensive stars playing at a high level right now.

Linus Ullmark has bounced back with two solid performances after a shaky outing in Game 1, but has certainly been the lesser of the two starters in this series. His numbers are pretty poor as he holds a -3.9 GSAx rating and .815 save percentage in the first three games, but it would still be pretty shocking to see head coach Travis Green turn to Anton Forsberg with the season on the line in this matchup.

While it is reasonable to argue the Senators could have found a way to win at least one of the last two games, it’s hard to consider betting on anyone but the Leafs considering the prices on this game. In terms of scoring chance generation, this series has been quite close, but the Leafs have more high-end scoring threats and a goaltender in better form, so it’s not overly shocking that they have found ways to win these closely fought games.

If I had to bet on a side in this game, it would be the Leafs, but my favorite play lies in backing Fabian Zetterlund to record over 1.5 shots on goal at -133. Zetterlund is a shot-first player skating on the second line and second power play unit and has had 13 shot attempts in the series so far.

Before locking Zetterlund to record over 1.5 shots on goal, it would be wise to ensure he’s going to stay in the same roles in tonight’s matchup at the morning skate. If he does remain on the second line, I would bet him to record two shots or more down to -138.