The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to earn their fourth consecutive win when they host the Columbus Blue Jackets Saturday evening.

The Leafs moved to 24-13-1 on home ice with their critical win over the Florida Panthers on Wednesday and now hold a three-point lead atop the Atlantic Division.

The Blue Jackets will likely come up short in the race for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, as they enter Saturday’s matchup four points back of the Montreal Canadiens, but they hold one game in hand.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Blue Jackets will likely need to go at least 6-2-0 in their final eight games to earn a playoff berth and should offer a high level of desperation in this matchup.

Since Sean Monahan returned on March 24, they have come alive offensively, scoring 4.40 goals per game. While you would think such a lofty offensive output would mean great results, they are just 3-2-0 in that span as they have allowed 4.60 goals against per game.

While the Blue Jackets have not been a great defensive team this season, it is quite clear that goaltending is holding them back more than anything else.

Elvis Merzlikins holds a .891 save percentage and a -8.2 GSAx rating across 50 appearances. Merzlikins was pulled from his last start against the Colorado Avalanche after allowing seven goals against from 28 shots, but he will start Saturday against the Maple Leafs.

The underlying numbers agree with the idea that the Blue Jackets are currently playing a high-quality offensive game, as over the last five matchups they have generated 3.82 xGF/60. They have allowed 3.37 xGA/60 in that span, which has been particularly concerning given that they aren’t even getting the saves they are supposed to, let alone saves on chances that are actually supposed to result in goals.

With the regular season nearing its conclusion, there is still a legitimate argument to be made that Monahan, Kirill Marchenko and Dmitri Voronkov have been among the best lines in hockey. They have outscored opponents 29-12 and have scored 5.95 goals per 60, which ranks first among any line to spend over 250 minutes together.

Considering how the rest of the team has fared and the team’s goaltending, a +17 goal differential is downright absurd.

The Blue Jackets offensive upside has also been bolstered by the return of Captain Boone Jenner, who has put up 18 points in 18 games since returning after the 4 Nations Face-Off. Jenner has found success recently skating alongside Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson on a second unit which has significant offensive upside.

Wednesday’s matchup was the perfect opportunity for the Leafs to earn a critical win over the Panthers and take a stranglehold in the division. Florida was playing its third game in four nights and was without three key pieces, as Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk and Aaron Ekblad were all out of the lineup.

The Leafs were outshot 31-26 and generated 12 high-danger scoring chances, while the Panthers generated 15. Anthony Stolarz was named the game’s first star after stopping 29 of 31 shots faced and has been confirmed as the Leafs starter in this matchup. Stolarz holds a +17.9 GSAx rating and .920 save percentage in 30 appearances this season.

The most important thing for head coach Craig Berube’s side is to continue fine-tuning its game before the postseason and to enter the series in an aggressive, confident mindset, ahead of the playoffs. There are a number of positives surrounding the Leafs right now, which will hopefully help lead to playoff success.

The top three offensive units seem to be set in stone and have all been showing solid chemistry of late. Scott Laughton continues to look more comfortable as he gets deeper into his tenure with the team and is in a better stretch of play skating alongside Max Domi and Calle Jarnkrok on the third line.

The power play continues to be highly effective, scoring on 38.5 percent of opportunities since March 1st. The Blue Jackets penalty kill has. succeeded on just 75.5 percent of opportunities this season, so Toronto’s red-hot power play should have a good chance to make an impact in this matchup.

Over the last 10 games, the Leafs hold a 49.55 percent expected goal share and have allowed 3.25 xGA/60. Compared to years past, they now have the goaltending to expect to find success in relatively even games in terms of chances for and against, but it would be nice to see their defensive play improve to some extent prior to the playoffs. While they did just win a playoff-type game against Florida, the Panthers were without two of their three best forwards, and Stolarz was still a huge part of the story.

The dynamic young Blue Jackets have given the Leafs some troubles this season, as they have won both matchups by a combined score of 11-3. Neither of those games were overly sharp performances from Toronto so it may not be a trend worth weighting too heavily though.

In terms of a side or total, backing the game to go over 6.5 is my favourite look. The Blue Jackets have been in excellent form offensively of late, both from an analytical perspective and in terms of scoring where it counts. The roster does hold a lot of underrated offensive talents but does not feature many quality two-way players. On top of that, Columbus continues to receive among the league’s worst goaltending.

While backing the over seems like a solid option, my favorite play lies with backing Nylander to snap his three-game goalless drought at +150. The Leafs second line has been fantastic recently, as has the top power play unit. Given the way those two units are playing right now, there’s a good chance Nylander ends up with some quality looks in this soft matchup, and +150 is a great number to back him recording his 43rd goal of the season.