The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to make it three straight wins as they visit Little Caesars Arena for a date with the struggling Detroit Red Wings. The Leafs are just 5-5-2 on the road this season, but were able to beat an elite New Jersey Devils team in their last matchup on the road.

Anthony Stolarz carried the Leafs to that victory with 38 saves, and will miss this matchup due to injury. Joseph Woll has been excellent in his own right, as he has posted a 10-8-3 record with a .921 save percentage and a 2.16 goals-against average.

Detroit will also be without their its net-minder, as Cam Talbot is sidelined due to injury. Ville Husso has been confirmed as Detroit’s starter in this matchup, and holds an .870 save percentage and 3.74 GAA in seven appearances this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs bounced-back with a better performance in their last matchup versus the Anaheim Ducks, even if it wasn’t altogether dominant considering the quality of competition. The Leafs outshot the Ducks 33-28 in that matchup, and held a 22-6 edge in high danger chances. They failed to put the Ducks entirely out of reach however, and Joseph Woll was forced to make some timely saves in the third period to preserve the win.

With captain Auston Matthews sidelined, we saw head coach Craig Berube’s side put together a tremendous stretch of results, based mainly around high quality team defence. Their defense tailed off considerably of late though, as over the last ten games Toronto has allowed 3.27 xGA/60 and 28.9 SA/60.

The Leafs’ have spent the majority of that sample with numerous NHL regular’s out of the lineup, including shutdown defender Jake McCabe. They may not prove to be the full-blown defensive juggernaut we saw throughout much of November, but it’s also safe to say they have the potential to improve on this rough patch of play moving forward.

The Leafs struggling powerplay has once again become a major storyline surrounding the team. Since Matthews’ return to the lineup they have succeeded on just 12.5% of power play opportunities. It would be foolish to suggest the games best goalscorer actually makes the top powerplay worse, but the five-forward unit coach Berube had been deploying since Matthews return was certainly struggling to find a rhythm.

Based on yesterday’s practice, it looks like Matthew Knies will come off of the top unit in favour of Morgan Rielly, reuniting the unit we have seen throughout most of the ‘Core Four’ era.

Bobby McMann is expected to make his return to the lineup in this matchup, and appears likely to skate on the third-line alongside Max Domi and Fraser Minten.

The Red Wings barely missed out on a playoff spot last season, as they tied the Washington Capitals for the final spot with 91 points, but did not hold the tie-breaker. The fact that GM Steve Yzerman’s developing core got so close suggested that perhaps they might take a step forward and snap their eight year playoff drought this season.

There were indicators which suggested the Red Wings last season success wasn’t overly sustainable though, and while critical young talents Lucas Raymond, Moritz Seider and Simon Edvinsson are now a year closer to their true primes, a number of their aging veterans are also further away from their’s.

The Red Wings continue to deploy meaningful minutes to veteran defenders Ben Chiarot, Jeff Petry and Justin Holl, who have well below average results this season. Forwards Andrew Copp and Patrick Kane have also taken steps backwards compared to last season, which has lead to disappointing results despite many younger players taking steps forward.

20 year-old Marco Kasper has been excellent for the Red Wings this season, and he has deservedly usurped J.T. Compher for the role of second line centre.

Over the last ten games the Red Wings hold a 48.72% expected goal share, and 28.91 SA/60. Both of those marks are actually considerable improvements compared to what we saw earlier on in the campaign.

The Red Wings’ have consistently spent far more time playing in the defensive zone at even-strength, and have not generated many chances at the other end of the ice as a result. They rank near the bottom of the league in most possession metrics, and it’s hard to make many arguments as to why their play will improve significantly moving forward.

Detroit has been able to hang around in a number of contests due to its strong goaltending and elite powerplay, which is also concerning now that Talbot is sidelined.

The Leafs’ play has tailed off for a considerable sample size though, enough so that I don’t see value backing them at -185.

In terms of sides of totals, my lean would be with the over 6 at -105. The Leafs haven’t been sharp defensively of late, but could manage a strong offensive output versus a shaky Red Wings defence core, which will be playing in front of a below average starter in Husso.

The Leafs’ second line looked tremendous versus Anaheim, and helped carry the team to a victory. The combination of Pacioretty, Tavares and Nylander has held excellent results this season. You could make a case for a ton of different props involving that trio, but backing Nylander to record four shots on goal at -115 is my favorite once again.