The Buffalo Sabres have lost 11 consecutive games, plummeting to last place in the Eastern Conference. Their losing streak has coincided with the loss of captain Rasmus Dahlin, who has been out of the lineup for the last seven games, but is expected to return in Friday’s matchup.

The Leafs moved to 6-6-2 on the road with their win Wednesday in Dallas, but more than ever we should expect KeyBank Center to be filled with Leafs supporters in this matchup given the circumstances surrounding the Sabres right now.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s not often you’ll beat a quality team like the Dallas Stars playing a largely disjointed brand of hockey, but the Leafs were able to do so on Wednesday. The Stars held a 15-7 edge in high danger chances, and out-shot Toronto 39-19. Joseph Woll was significantly better than Stars goaltender Jake Oettinger, and the Leafs’ potent finishing ability to shined through.

The Stars were clearly the better team, and that’s not a very positive notion, given it was a game in which I recommended betting the Leafs based largely because of the key defenders missing from the Stars’ lineup.

The Leafs have played to a 47.7% expected goal share in December and allowed 3.58 xGA/60, which is the fourth-worst mark in the NHL. They have played only three playoff teams in that span, and were clearly outplayed in each of those matchups.

Analytics aside, if you look back on the Leafs recent outings it’s hard to point out games in which they have actually looked good in, as of late. I’d argue that their wins over the last-place Nashville Predators on December 4th, and Sunday’s win over the Sabres were their only truly strong showings in December.

Perhaps the fact that Matt Murray is making his first start of the season in this matchup will inspire Craig Berube’s side to look closer to the team we saw throughout November in this matchup. Murray has earned the right to a call-up with a .931 save percentage and 1.85 goals-against average in eight AHL appearances this season.

Auston Matthews missed Friday’s morning skate as Berube indicated he’s fighting through a lingering injury but is expected to play in this matchup.

Sabres owner Terry Pegula met with his team on Monday, and reportedly stated his belief that the solution to the team’s problem was “in the-room” and that significant changes were not on the horizon. His meeting looks to have backfired, as the Sabres played their worst game of the entire losing skid Tuesday night in Montreal.

It’s interesting to consider that the Sabres’ play has clearly continued to regress as the losing skid has continued, which has partly been due to Dahlin’s injury. Buffalo lost to a number of high-quality teams earlier in its losing streak, in which it arguably deserved better.

Buffalo’s losing skid started with a notably unlucky 1-0 loss to the Minnesota Wild on November 27th, a game in which Filip Gustavsson stopped 39 shots and the Sabres hit three posts. They lost in overtime to the Vancouver Canucks after outshooting them 34-22, before suffering single-goal losses to the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets.

Since the overtime loss versus the Jets’ game though, things have really fallen apart. Over the last five games the Sabres’ hold an expected goal share of just 36.95 percent, and a -14 goal differential.

While the Sabres’ roster is simply flawed in some areas and management is rightfully under fire as a result,  there is a pretty strong case that head coach Lindy Ruff is not a quality NHL bench boss anymore, and I think that notion is not getting enough credit surrounding this disaster. You can look at the upswing a number of New Jersey Devils’ skaters have had since Ruff left last season, and consider that the Sabres appeared to be taking a step in the right direction internally prior to the season.

The Sabres are 7-5-1 in their last 12 games when Dahlin is in the lineup. Realistically, one player can’t make that much of an impact on a NHL game, and Dahlin’s return certainly can’t solve all the flaws we have seen from the Sabres of late. It could potentially offer a source of positivity for a team desperately in need of it though.

Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen is expected to get the start in goal for the Sabres. He has played to an .896 save percentage and 3.00 GAA in 22 appearances this season.

It’s not surprising to see that The Action Network is reporting that 88 percent of money-line bets on this game are on the Leafs to win. When you consider the Leafs’ overall record, and look at a Buffalo team that is in complete shambles, the obvious take is that -160 is short.

While I don’t see value with either side, I think that it’s not just free-money to back the Leafs’ here, and the price looks right.

Toronto has been highly reliant on elite goaltending of late, and has allowed more chances than an average NHL team for a lengthy sample. This makes Matt Murray’s season debut a huge source of volatility in this matchup, as it’s far from a given Murray will be sharp in this matchup.

The Sabres authored their most pathetic performance of the season in Montreal, and their performance on Sunday in Toronto wasn’t great, either. However prior to those games, a number of losses in their current streak were of the one-goal variety, in which they were arguably the better team.

Dahlin’s return provides a significant boost to the blue-line, and potentially to the team’s morale, which is clearly desperately needed.

There’s certainly a chance the Sabres are simply checked out, and awaiting some significant roster changes at this point, but personally the numbers make sense to me.

The bet that I do see value on is backing Tage Thompson to score at +175. I’ve backed Thompson to score three times this season in my Daily Faceoff prop pieces, and he’s been very good to us, going 3-for-3 in those games.

The arguments remain largely the same. Thompson has scored 16 goals in 27 games, and recorded a single goal in 51.8% of games this season. He has a high shooting percentage of (18.8%), but if we look past last year when he played through a significant wrist injury, he’s averaged above 15% for a three-season sample.

If Thompson continues to score at a pace somewhat close to his current one, numbers in the +175 range will continue to be highly profitable, and I don’t believe the Leafs with Murray in goal is a bad matchup for Thompson to score.