For the second time in 10 days, the New York Islanders and Toronto Maple Leafs will face off at Scotiabank Arena. Including their win over the Leafs on December 21st, the Islanders have won five straight head-to-head matchup between these teams.  New York is currently a larger underdog in Tuesday’s game than it was in the last matchup, which likely comes down to the fact that the Islanders were in a highly favourable scheduling spot in the previous contest.

Toronto holds a record of 14-7-0 at home this season, and is 8-6-0 in the month of December. The Leafs trail the Florida Panthers by two points in the race for the Atlantic Division title, but hold a game in hand.

New York owns a record of 7-8-5 on the road, and has played to a mark of 5-6-1 in December. The Islanders are five points back of the Ottawa Senators for the final Eastern Conference playoff spot, having played one more game.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Islanders’ 6-3 win in the last matchup between these teams felt like a potential turning point in their season, as they were finally playing at close to full strength in that matchup with Mathew Barzal, Anthony Duclair, and Adam Pelech back in the lineup, and came through with an excellent performance.

They have failed to follow it up though, as they suffered a hideous 7-1 loss to the Buffalo Sabres at home in their next game, before splitting a pair of matchups with the Pittsburgh Penguins.

Chances are that Patrick Roy’s side will start to play at somewhat of a higher level moving forward playing at close to full health, but it’s a stretch to say New York deserves to be power-rated as a playoff team even at full strength based on what we have seen so far this season.

Over the last 10 games, the Islanders hold a 48.41% expected goal share at even strength. They do not hold the kind of offensive firepower to finish chances at a higher than average rate, which is something that has been proven across the last two seasons of play, and they are generating chances at a well-below average rate.

Barzal’s return may help their last-ranked power play improve on it’s 11.5 percent success rate, as they did hold a 20.4% success rate with a comparable top unit last season.

Ilya Sorokin’s drop-off in form, coupled with an injury to high-quality backup Semyon Varlamov, has also contributed to the Islanders’ highly disappointing start to the season. Sorokin holds a save percentage of just .898 and a -2.5 GSAx across 26 appearances this season, after playing at an elite level throughout most of his young career. He is expected to get the start in Tuesday’s matchup.

The Leafs will look to wrap up a highly unconvincing month of December with a win Tuesday, and will once again be forced to play without captain Auston Matthews in this matchup. Toronto has achieved its 8-6-0 record this month with a breakeven goal differential, as it has scored 3.21 goals per game while allowing 3.21 goals against per game.

Toronto suffered somewhat of a tough-luck loss last time out versus the Washington Capitals, as it held a 15-10 edge in high-danger chances and generated 37 shots on goal while allowing 32.

Part of the Leafs’ drop-off in form has been due to the absence of Anthony Stolarz, who was injured on December 12th versus Anaheim, and is expected to return near the end of January.

Third-string netminder Matt Murray was not sharp versus the Capitals on Saturday, and was outplayed by Capitals starter Logan Thompson. By no means has Joseph Woll been bad, but Stolarz was playing at a truly elite level and would potentially have earned a Vezina Trophy nomination without the injury.

Not having their goaltenders play at an elite level has helped to expose the fact that the Leafs’ defensive play has fallen off for a relatively large sample. While it did seem clear that the Leafs’ defensive game had taken steps forward under Berube throughout November, that doesn’t look to be the case right now. In 14 games this month, the Leafs have allowed 3.54 xGA/60, which is the fourth-highest mark in the NHL. They have also allowed 29.4 shots against per game, which is the seventh-highest mark in the league in that span.

It’s interesting to consider that under Sheldon Keefe the New Jersey Devils have been arguably the best defensive team in the league recently, and that to some extent Leafs’ observers may have oversold the defensive progress the team has made under Berube based on the fact that Stolarz was playing incredibly well.

Based on Monday’s practice, Max Pacioretty, John Tavares, and Mitch Marner will remain together on the top line, while David Kampf will get an opportunity to play top-six minutes alongside Matthew Knies and William Nylander.

While the Islanders looked to be a sharp bet at comparable numbers the last time these sides met, the prices on sides in this matchup look accurate to me. There is certainly room for Roy’s side to grow in time and they look to be getting enough credit at +120 to win this matchup.

It seems likely that we will see a much more urgent effort from the Leafs in this matchup, as they look to finally earn another victory in this head-to-head series.

Over the last two seasons, more Islanders’ games have needed overtime than any other team, which makes sense considering their strengths and weaknesses. They are fairly solid defensively and have the ability to hang around in a lot of contests, but do not have the offensive firepower to create much separation. It’s well proven at this point that they go into a defensive shell looking to hold leads, which continues to lead to a lot of late collapses.

It seems logical to expect a tight-checking, hotly-contested affair that features relatively even scorelines throughout. I’m expecting the Leafs to bring a better effort than we saw on December 21st in this matchup, but I don’t expect them to win comfortably very often. At +300 or better, I see value backing this game to require overtime.