While it might be difficult for Saturday’s NHL slate to match the excitement of Thursday’s 4 Nations Face-Off, the Toronto Maple Leafs matchup versus the Carolina Hurricanes should be a good one. Both teams are considered to be among the most likely sides to win the Stanley Cup this season, according to the latest betting odds.

Carolina ranks second in the Eastern Conference in points percentage, and it’s the betting favourite to represent the conference in the Stanley Cup Final thanks to the acquisition of superstar winger Mikko Rantanen. While the Hurricanes are 6-3-1 over the last ten games, Rantanen has not offered a significant impact in his initial six games with the team, with a goal and two points.

The Leafs will look to build on their 19-11-0 record on home ice, which has helped them hang tight with the Florida Panthers in a close Atlantic Division race. After playing key roles in Thursday’s hotly contested 4 Nations Face-Off final, Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are back in the lineup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Carolina Hurricanes will be a very interesting team to watch between now and the NHL trade deadline on March 7. Rantanen’s tenure with the team has been a disappointment so far, and the Hurricanes could look to flip him at the deadline.

It seems unlikely Rantanen will get traded. Six games is a relatively insignificant sample, and Rantanen has reportedly been dealing with an injury. While it seems entirely possible Rantanen won’t be as dominant now that he isn’t spending the majority of his minutes with Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, the Hurricanes are in win-now mode and his elite goal-scoring ability is exactly what is needed to put the team over the edge.

The Hurricanes have not been an entirely dominant defensively as we have typically seen during head coach Rod Brind’Amour’s tenure, but they have still been a much better than average defensive side and are generating plenty of chances at the other end of the ice. They continue to play at a breakneck pace, offering one of the league’s most aggressive forechecks and pressuring the puck aggressively all over the ice.

Over the last 10 games, the Hurricanes hold a 55 percent expected goal share, and have generated 32.47 shots for per 60. They rank eighth in xGA/60 in that span, and rank sixth in xGF/60.

Rantanen wasn’t in great form during 4 Nations Face-Off, posting just one point. Carolina’s current top-unit of Rantanen, Sebastian Aho, and Seth Jarvis looks quite excellent on paper, and it will be interesting to see if the trio starts to offer more dominant play heading towards a critical postseason for the team.

The Hurricanes will be at close to full-health, as Tyson Jost, William Carrier and Jesper Fast are the only skaters on IR ahead of this matchup.

Carolina’s goaltender situation is also something to watch heading towards the trade deadline. Pyotr Kochetkov and Frederik Andersen have not quite been sharp enough for the team to find meaningful postseason success in recent years, but are still offering a level of play which is not easy to upgrade via trade.

Kochetkov holds a +11.1 GSAx and .904 save percentage this season, while Andersen owns a +5.1 GSAx and .914 save percentage in a smaller sample size of just nine games. As of now it is unclear which of the two will get the start in this matchup, though Andersen will likely be given a chance to run with the starter’s role coming out of the break.

More than any other team, fans and media alike zeroed in on the form of Toronto’s trio of superstar forwards at the 4 Nations Face-Off of Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews and William Nylander. It was a fairly reasonable showing from the three Maple Leafs stars.

While Marner was quiet in two of the 4 Nations Face-Off matchups, he was excellent in the final, netting two primary assists for Canada. In a tight-checking game where a number of the world’s very best stars looked to fighting the puck, Marner made a number of quality plays and showed plenty of poise on the puck.

Matthews was also excellent in the final, although he was on the ice for Connor McDavid’s tournament winning goal, where he attempted to break up Marner’s game-winning pass. He missed Monday’s game against Sweden, but is set to play in this matchup on the top line alongside Marner and Matthew Knies in this matchup.

Given his strong form in recent playoffs, it was somewhat surprising to see William Nylander have a relatively quite tournament for Team Sweden, netting only two points and not looking as dynamic as usual.

Nylander will skate on the second line alongside Bobby McMann and John Tavares in tonight’s matchup. In 41.9 minutes together they hold a 61.1 percent expected goal share, and have generated 71.38 shot attempts per 60.

The Leafs will also be at close to full strength in this matchup as Max Pacioretty appears to be the only skater to have played meaningful minutes this season that will be out of the lineup due to injury.

Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as Toronto’s starting goaltender in this matchup. Stolarz returned from a seven-week absence on February 6th, and did not miss a beat in stopping 26-of-27 shots faced. He holds a +11.0 GSAx rating and .929 save percentage in 18 games played this season.

It’s possible we see some rust in all games throughout today’s massive 14-game NHL slate, as the majority of the league was sitting on a beach somewhere getting some much needed rest earlier in the week. That could potentially lead to more volatility in the betting markets, and it does feel a little tough to project what level of play each side will offer in this matchup.

The prices on sides look relatively fair to me, and if anything the Leafs look a little more appealing as an underdog with Stolarz in goal, who leads the league in save percentage (minimum ten games).

While Carolina has always been one of the league’s lowest event teams, that’s not really been the case this season. Their fast-paced aggressive style could make this a particularly intriguing game coming out of the break, as players might not manage the puck as effectively as usual and we could see more breakdowns from each side.

I’m not convinced this game will be overly tight checking, and a more free-flowing game could favour William Nylander in the prop market. He could be in somewhat of a sweet spot as a player who has rested since Monday but did not take a full vacation, and the Leafs current second line has done a tremendous job of carrying play in a small sample.

Nylander priced at -132 to record only three shots on goal, which is a drastic change compared to when the Leafs are playing a much less dominant defensive side. That looks to be too much of an adjustment from oddsmakers in a game which might not overly tight checking, and I see value backing the over up to -137.