The Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins will meet for the final time this regular season Tuesday evening at TD Garden. The Leafs own a record of 2-0-1 in this season’s first three matchups, and hold a plus-five goal differential in those games.

While the Leafs may finally have what it takes to exorcise their postseason demons versus the Bruins this season, there’s a good chance that they will not get the opportunity to do so. Oddsmakers currently offer the Bruins just a 28.6 percent chance of making the playoffs, as they need to gain ground in the standings while playing without their top two defenders.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While it would undoubtedly be satisfying for the longest-tenured members of the Leafs roster to finally win a playoff series versus the Bruins, it might not be the worst thing to avoid playing a team that has been Toronto’s kryptonite in recent years. The Leafs looked to be the superior of the two teams entering last postseason, but their perceived advantages did not equate to a series win, in what was ultimately another painful seven-game loss.

The gap between these sides currently looks even wider this season than last year. The Leafs hold a plus-19 goal differential compared to the Bruins mark of -26, and it would be fair to say the Leafs have been better in every area of the game this season.

The Leafs will be at a disadvantage in this matchup as they will be playing their third game in four nights, while the Bruins have been off since Saturday. Coming out of the 4 Nations Face-Off break, that rest advantage may be less notable though, and it’s no excuse for the Leafs, considering the Bruins will remain without Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm.

Toronto has looked sharp coming out of the layoff, scoring 11 goals while allowing only five against the Carolina Hurricanes and Chicago Blackhawks on the weekend. While the top-six looked more or less as expected in those two matchups, the bottom-six provided some much needed depth scoring.

The Leafs have scored 3.16 goals per game this season, which is the 12th-best mark in the NHL. A lack of production from further down the lineup has been the team’s greatest issue, but now that the team is finally skating at close to full-health that concern will likely be alleviated to some extent.

Max Domi and Bobby McMann are currently slotted more appropriately down the lineup card, and were effective on the third line playing alongside Nick Robertson in Sunday’s win over the Blackhawks.

The Leafs power play has also been viewed as one of the team’s greatest concerns this season, after it was arguably the greatest reason for last season’s playoff exit. Over the last 10 games the Leafs power play has succeeded 31.8% of the time, and is up to 13th in the league over the entirety of the season.

Toronto also looks to have found some consistency of late from its blue-line, most notably in reuniting its tremendous shutdown pairing of Jake McCabe and Chris Tanev.

McCabe and Tanev have formed one of the best defensive tandems in the league this season, allowing only 1.76 xGA/60 in 476 minutes of play, and allowing only 1.89 actual goals per 60. While head coach Craig Berube has looked to balance his units by separating his best two defensive defenders at times this season, it’s becoming fairly clear that Toronto’s best option is pairing them together.

Anthony Stolarz has looked sharp since returning from injury, earning a 2-0-0 record with a .934 save percentage. Among goaltenders to make over 10 appearances this season, Stolarz’s .928 save percentage is the best mark in the league. Stolarz is expected to get the start in this matchup.

The Bruins were able to improve their form briefly when Joe Sacco was appointed as head coach, and briefly push back into a playoff spot. Sacco took over as head coach during a highly favourable scheduling patch, which likely helped to create a placebo effect that the start of the season wasn’t an accurate reflection of what this roster currently is.

David Pastrnak is the team’s only truly dynamic forward, and is currently 24 points clear of any other skater on the roster. He leads the NHL with 32 points since the turn of the new year, and has carried the team to a solid output of 3.00 goals per game. The Bruins have still generated just 2.93 xGF/60 in that span, which ranks 23rd in the NHL.

While the Bruins have been putting up decent offensive results of late, their defensive form has been disastrous. They have allowed 3.74 xGA/60 over the last 20 games, which ranks 30th in the NHL, and is only a hair better than the Chicago Blackhawks.

With McAvoy and Lindholm sidelined, the Bruins defensive core has become a clear weakness, after typically being one of the league’s best units in recent years.

While Nikita Zadorov does provide a physical edge, he has been highly ineffective overall this season, and is currently garnering a role on the top pairing. Brandon Carlo has also taken steps backward this season, and will likely pair up with Zadorov on the top unit. The duo will get their shots in physically, but is also a unit which spends a ton of time playing in the defensive zone.

Overall the Bruins are still a more physically imposing than average team, and will certainly bring a high level of intensity in this matchup. They are one of the slowest teams in the league however, and that flaw is only exacerbated by a defensive core which does not move the puck up the ice overly well.

Jeremy Swayman also hasn’t lived up to his lofty expectations, sporting a -1.6 GSAx rating and .898 save percentage in 41 games played this season. He has stabilized after a horrific start to the season though, as he has put up a .904 save percentage in his last 25 appearances.

The Leafs have a great opportunity to earn another win over their bitter rival in this matchup, and extend the Bruins’ losing skid to four games. Toronto has won the last two matchups between these teams fairly comfortably, and the gap in talent playing in tonight’s matchup is currently even wider in favour of the Leafs than in this season’s previous outings.

The Bruins will surely bring a high level of desperation into this matchup, as they look to snap their losing skid in this rivalry matchup. Still, the Leafs hold a significantly more talented offensive core, and far more depth on the back end thanks to McAvoy and Lindholm’s absences.

While Swayman is in better form now than he was at the start of the year, he’s still clearly in lesser form than either of Stolarz or Woll, and is typically facing a far tougher workload.

This is the Leafs’ chance to kick the Bruins while they are down, and at -152, I see value backing the Leafs to earn two points in this matchup.