Sheldon Keefe will return to Toronto for the first time since being fired by the Toronto Maple Leafs after another early playoff elimination last spring. While it’s been a solid start to the season for Keefe’s New Jersey Devils, they have lost both of the two previous matchups against the Leafs in New Jersey, and are just 4-4-2 over their last 10 games.

The Leafs will be desperate to snap a three-game losing skid in this matchup, in which they have been outscored by a combined total of 13-4. Toronto will be without John Tavares, who suffered a lower-body injury during Wednesday’s practice and is considered week-to-week.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

While New Jersey’s record of 26-15-5 through 46 games is a significant improvement upon last season, it is close to the exact pace oddsmakers were expecting this year from a healthy Devils roster, based on their preseason betting total of 103.5 points.

When these teams last faced off on December 10th, the Devils generated 39 shots and allowed only 17 against. They also held a 17-10 edge in high danger chances, but suffered a 2-1 overtime loss in what was arguably Anthony Stolarz’s best game as a Maple Leaf. The game was a microcosm of the Devils’ recent struggles, as their overall process has looked quite strong, particularly defensively, but they have struggled to finish scoring chances at a league average rate.

In the time since these teams last met, the Devils are 8-5-2, and have allowed only 2.07 goals against per game. Jacob Markstrom is trending in excellent form after a modest start to the campaign, and he has been well-insulated by strong defensive play. Over the last 15 games, the Devils have allowed just 22.63 shots against per game, which is the best mark in the league throughout that span by a wide margin.

New Jersey ranks third with an xGF/60 of 3.68 over the last 15 games, but has scored only 2.68 goals per game where it counts. Timo Meier has struggled to produce as expected playing alongside Nico Hischier on the second line, and the bottom-six has also not chipped in much offence of late.

Stefan Noesen and Erik Haula will be unavailable for this matchup. Noesen had been doing an excellent job working net-front on the Devils’ top power play unit, which holds a third-best 27.9 percent success rate this season. Dawson Mercer appears to have inherited Noesen’s role on the power play.

Markstrom is projected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a +14.1 GSAx and .913 save percentage in 33 appearances this season.

The Leafs are facing arguably their first real bit of adversity under head coach Craig Berube, having been heavily outplayed in each of the last three matchups. Their recent struggles arguably go beyond just the last three matchups, as their game had been showing cause for concern despite favourable results prior to this losing skid.

Over the last 15 games, the Leafs hold a 48.4 percent expected goal share, and an actual goal differential of -1, despite managing a record of 9-6-0. Their defensive game has dropped off considerably during that span, as they have allowed 3.30 xGA/60 and 29.83 shots against per 60.

We have talked a lot about how much Jake McCabe’s absences have hurt the team this season, as he and Chris Tanev have formed one of the league’s very best shutdown pairings. Perhaps having McCabe out of the lineup hurts even more than the simple logic suggests it should, as over the last two seasons the Leafs hold a points percentage of just .412 in games which McCabe has been sidelined.

McCabe is set to return to the lineup in this matchup, and appears likely to play alongside Tanev on the second pairing.

While the Leafs should benefit from McCabe’s return to the lineup, they suffered another tough loss with Tavares being injured at Wednesday’s practice. Fraser Minten has been recalled from the AHL in a corresponding move, but he will not be in the lineup in this matchup.

Max Domi is likely taking over Tavares’ role as the second line centre, while Matthew Knies appears likely to move onto the top power play unit.