It’s a matchup between Atlantic Division rivals, as the Toronto Maple Leafs and Tampa Bay Lightning will face off for the third time this season, with the Leafs hosting at Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs have won the previous two matchups by a combined margin of 10-5, and hold a seven-point lead over the Lightning in the standings, with three games in hand.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Dating back to Toronto’s 4-2 series win over Tampa Bay in the 2023 postseason, the Leafs have actually fared quite well versus Andrei Vasilevskiy, including the first two matchups of this season in which the Leafs have scored eight goals on 42 shots. Perhaps based partly on the fact that the Leafs have had Vasilevskiy’s number, the Lightning have decided to hand this start to backup Jonas Johansson, which will likely mean Vasilevskiy gets the start Tuesday night in Montreal.

Fading Johansson has been a popular play in the betting community historically, and it has been a profitable strategy throughout his career overall. He is just 25-29 straight-up, and backing opposing teams moneyline has netted a +19.1% ROI throughout the entirety of his NHL career.

Johansson has enjoyed a surprisingly strong start to season, as he holds a +0.1 GSAx and .903 save percentage in ten appearances. The Lightning were priced as slight underdogs (consensus -105) prior to confirmation that Johansson would start, and are currently priced at +119.

The Lightning enter this matchup with a record of 8-6-1 over the last 15 games, and have scored 2.93 goals for per game while allowing 2.53 against in that span. They hold a 50.14% expected goal share in that span, and have been outshot by 2.61 per 60 minutes of play.

Shot volume is down significantly in the NHL this season, as more and more teams are opting to pass up low quality shots in order to sustain possession in the offensive zone and attempt to find higher quality looks. The Lightning do an excellent job of creating ‘model-breaking’ chances, and feature a top-six littered with high end skill. They have scored 21.84 goals above expected this season in all situations, after scoring 18.63 goals above expected in last season.

It took some time for the Lightning’s top power play unit to adjust to life without Steven Stamkos, but they have certainly found their rhythm as the season after a slow start. Over the last 25 games Tampa’s power play holds a 32.9 percent success rate.

Nikita Kucherov ranks first in the NHL with an average of 1.62 points-per-game this season, spending the majority of his even strength minutes alongside Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel. Based on Monday’s morning skate the trio will remain together at even strength in this matchup. In 381.2 minutes together they have scored 4.09 goals per 60, which is the sixth highest mark in the league among lines which have spent over 150 minutes together.

The Lightning will remain without J.J. Moser in this matchup, who was playing on the top pairing alongside Victor Hedman prior to being injured on December 12th. Erik Cernak is listed as day-to-day, but based on today’s morning skate appears unlikely to play in this matchup.

The Leafs enter this matchup off of arguably their most exciting win of the season, as they stormed back with seven unanswered goals in Saturday’s 7-3 victory over their rival Montreal Canadiens. The first period was a complete train wreck — despite strong work in goal from Joseph Woll, the Leafs gave up three goals.

While that kind of start is untenable, the Leafs showed a lot of resolve, and some elite offensive play to dig their way out of the early hole. In eight games since returning to the lineup on January 4th, Auston Matthews has scored seven goals and put up 12 points, and the Leafs have scored 3.38 goals per game.

With Max Pacioretty and John Tavares both on the IR, Fraser Minten is returning to the lineup in this matchup. Minten centered Max Domi and Nick Robertson at today’s morning skate. Pontus Holmberg was elevated to the role of second line center alongside William Nylander and Bobby McMann.

Over the last 15 games the Leafs hold a 46.43% expected goal share, and have allowed 3.42 xGA/60 in that span. They have scored 3.33 goals per game in that span, and allowed 3.33 goals against.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the Leafs starting goaltender in this matchup. In 24 appearances this season Woll holds a .906 save percentage and holds a +12.2 GSAx rating.

The Lightning have not been as dominant defensively of late, and the losses of Moser and Cernak on the back end certainly hurt the upside of their blue-line. Johansson has been respectable in a small sample so far this season, but it’s tough to bank on the idea that he will play at this level moving forwards.

The Leafs have responded to an ugly stretch of play with two high quality wins, but their game has still looked too inconsistent for me to be interested in backing them at -132 versus a formidable Tampa Bay side.

It does seem likely that this will be a fairly high event matchup, and it seems likely that a number of the red-hot stars from both sides will be productive in this game.

Since being healthy scratched for missing a team meeting last Tuesday, Point has responded with two excellent performances and been rewarded with two goals. He’s scored a single goal in 58% of games played this season, and I believe there is value backing him to score again tonight at +139.

Matthews is clearly in top form offensively right now, with goals in seven of his last nine games played. At +102 I think there is value backing the games best goal-scorer to stay hot, and find a way to get one past Johansson in this matchup.