This season’s second Battle of Ontario will take place Saturday as the Ottawa Senators host the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Senators won this season’s initial matchup on November 12th, as Linus Ullmark recorded his first shutout with the club over a Leafs side that was without Auston Matthews at the time.

The Senators have built a reputation for bringing their ‘A-game’ into matchups versus the Leafs, as despite their modest results elsewhere, they are 5-3-1 versus Toronto dating back to the start of the 2022-23 season. They enter Saturday’s slate one point back of the Columbus Blue Jackets for the final wild card spot with one game in hand.

The Leafs will be looking to respond to an ugly 5-1 loss on home ice Wednesday versus the Blue Jackets, and improve upon their 11-7-2 record on the road this season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Leafs should be well prepared to put forth a much sharper performance in this matchup than we saw versus Columbus, as they have been off since Wednesday, and will be playing for just the third time since last Saturday. They held a team practice Friday afternoon, which marked the first time Anthony Stolarz practiced with the team since suffering a knee injury on December 12th.

Matt Murray also practiced with the team after being recalled from the AHL on Thursday. While the Leafs have not yet confirmed if Murray or Joseph Woll will start in this matchup, it seems to safe to assume Woll will start as he rested against Columbus, and given that the Leafs will not play again until Wednesday.

Woll holds a +12.0 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 25 appearances this season.

Matthew Knies had an individual session before practice on Friday, and is considered doubtful for this matchup after leaving Wednesday’s matchup due to a knee injury suffered in the second period. Bobby McMann took over Knies’ role on the Leafs’ top-line alongside Matthews and Mitch Marner at practice, while Max Domi took over Knies role on the team’s five forward top power play unit.

A 5-1 final wasn’t necessarily an entirely accurate depiction of the Leafs’ loss to the Blue Jackets, as they did outshot the Blue Jackets 29-19, and held a 39-22 edge in scoring chances. though those numbers revolved partly around the fact Toronto played down numerous goals for most of the contest.

Throughout the month of January the Leafs have allowed 3.44 xGA/60, which is the fifth highest mark in the NHL. Those who don’t believe the analytics don’t given an entirely fair depiction of the Leafs’ recent defensive play would likely point to their strong work protecting the front as a potential reason why, but they clearly did a poor job clearing out the front of the net on Wednesday, leaving Hildeby out to dry on two of the Blue Jackets goals as a result.

The Leafs also struggled to finish quality scoring chances versus Columbus, which is not likely to be one of the team’s more consistent flaws based on all of the elite skill at the top of the roster. They have scored 3.3 goals per game over the last ten, which has powered them to a 6-4-0 run despite some fairly uneven play overall.

The Senators have played to a record of 6-6-2 since star netminder Linus Ullmark was injured on December 22nd, and are still considered more likely to make the playoffs now than they were at the start of the season, based on their current price of -140.

While maybe the Senators would likely have received even better goaltending if Ullmark was healthy, it’s not like their modest recent results have revolved around poor play in goal. Leevi Merilainen and Anton Forsberg have combined for a .904 save percentage since Ullmark’s injury, which is the tenth highest mark in the league. The Senators have allowed just 2.90 xGA/60 in that span, which is the tenth best mark in the NHL.

The Senators could potentially be without their two most effective defenders in this game, as Jake Sanderson and Nick Jensen are both listed as day-to-day. Sanderson’s absence versus the Bruins was noticeable at both ends of the ice, and leaves a massive hole in a relatively thin defensive core.

The Senators have struggled mightily to produce offence of late, as they have scored just 1.86 goals per game over the last 14 matchups. Their underlying results suggest they are due for some positive regression as they have generated 3.01 xGF/60, but even still, that mark ranks 23rd in the league.

Playing without Josh Norris certainly won’t help the Senators finish chances at a higher rate, as he is a career 17.6% shooter and arguably the team’s best finisher. Norris will reportedly miss at least the next two games with an upper-body injury.

Merilainen is expected to get the start in this matchup. He holds a .914 save percentage and +3.9 GSAx rating this season in ten appearances.

While there has been flaws to nitpick within the Leafs game recently, it still looks to me as though they deserve to be a bigger favourite than they currently are in this particular spot.

While the Senators have defended quite well recently, their defensive upside takes a significant hit if one or both of Sanderson or Jensen miss this game due to injury. They have also struggled mightily to score goals recently, and have far less elite offensive talent than the Leafs do, especially with Norris on the sidelines.

My expectation is that we will see the Leafs bring a strong level of urgency into this matchup, and that their offensive upside is currently far greater than the Senators. At -125 or better I see value backing the Leafs to extract some revenge for their loss in the initial Battle of Ontario this season.