The Toronto Maple Leafs are heavy favourites Wednesday evening as they host the scuffling Minnesota Wild. The Leafs will be looking to avoid their three-game losing skid of the month, after falling 2-1 on Saturday in a heated Battle of Ontario. The Leafs are 19-10-0 on home ice this season, which has powered them to first place in the Atlantic Division.

The Wild have struggled to find results while playing through a nightmare injury situation, and are just 9-11-0 over their last 20 games. Superstar forward Kirill Kaprizov underwent a minor surgery last Friday and is expected to miss at least four weeks of action.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

One of the key arguments as to why the Wild could bounce back this season was that they likely would not have as horrible of luck with injuries as they did during the 2023-24 season, in which they missed the playoffs with a record of 39-34-9.

Early on that point proved to be true, as they entered the month of December ranked second in the NHL with a record of 16-4-4.

Kaprizov’s absence from the lineup has obviously been massive, as at the time of his initial absence which started on December 23rd, he was the betting favourite to win the Hart Trophy. Not only had Kaprizov been a game-breaker with 23 goals and 52 points in 37 games, but he had been a highly effective player on the defensive puck as well.

While Kaprizov’s absences from the lineup have been a big part of Minnesota’s recent struggles, playing a period of games without all three of its top defenders—Brock Faber, Jared Spurgeon, and Jonas Brodin—has also been a huge cause of their recent struggles.

The Wild’s injury situation is currently slightly better than it has been, as Faber has been in the lineup in each of the last five games, and Spurgeon has been back for the last three matchups. Still, they are just 2-3-0 in those matchups and hold a -5 goal differential.

Over the last 10 games, the Wild hold an expected goal share of just 49.01 percent, and have generated only 2.78 xGF/60.

On paper, the Wild’s new-look top line of Matt Boldy, Joel Eriksson Ek, and Mats Zuccarello should be highly effective, but in a small sample that has not been the case thus far. In 23.1 minutes together, the trio holds an expected goal share of 43.7% and has not yet broken through with an actual goal.

Even without the team’s best shutdown defender in Brodin, the Wild’s blue line does still looks to be quite a strength, but the offensive upside of the roster is currently quite concerning.  Beyond the Boldy-Ek-Zuccarello trio, the Wild’s forward corps lacks meaningful scoring punch, and it certainly doesn’t help matters that another reliable two-way forward, Marcus Johansson, is also out of the lineup due to a concussion.

The Wild have confirmed that Filip Gustavsson will get the start in this matchup. After lesser results in 2023-24, Gustavsson has been excellent this season and could end up starting the majority of games for team Sweden in next month’s 4 Nations Face-Off with Jacob Markstrom and Linus Ullmark sidelined.

Gustavsson holds a .913 save percentage and +11.8 GSAx rating in 33 games played this season.

Without keeping in mind the Leafs’ playoff eliminations during the ‘core-four’ era, Saturday’s disappointing loss versus the rival Ottawa Senators certainly shouldn’t be overly concerning. The Leafs outshot the Senators 29-23 and held a 13-9 edge in high-danger scoring chances.

As two elite play-drivers in Faber and Spurgeon are now back in the lineup, the Wild’s injury situation is currently far better than it has been throughout much of the last month of play. Still, they have still not looked very good since the duo has returned, and their lack of offensive depth could prove noteworthy in this matchup.

Matthews’ line will likely be hard-matched against the Wild’s top line as much as possible, and if the Leafs’ top unit can fare well in that matchup, Toronto should have a great chance in this game.

It seems possible that the Wild are still getting too much credit from oddsmakers based on the team they were earlier in the year, and this looks like a good matchup to back a rested Leafs side which should feature a high level of urgency.

Backing the Leafs at -165 looks like a good option, as I do believe they deserve to be more favoured than that number suggests. If you aren’t interested in laying that kind of juice, backing the Leafs to win in regulation is another good option, though both bets hold a similar expected value.