Toronto Maple Leafs Captain Auston Matthews will return from a six-game absence Saturday evening, and will do so at an exciting time with his side hosting the rival Boston Bruins.

The Leafs played to a record of 3-3-0 during the span of Matthews’ most recent absence, and remain six points ahead of Boston having played one less game entering this matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Bruins suffered a 4-0 loss in their last matchup versus the Maple Leafs, a game which marked former coach Jim Montgomery’s sixth-last game with the team. Since promoting Joe Sacco to the role of head coach, the Bruins hold the hold the seventh-best point percentage in the NHL with a record of 12-7-1.

There are two obvious areas in which the Bruins have improved under Sacco. After a horrid start to the season offensively, they have scored 2.75 goals per game since his arrival. While that still makes Boston a below average team in terms of production, it is an improvement on the 2.40 goals-per-game average the team held under Montgomery.

Under Sacco the Bruins have allowed just 2.55 goals-against-per-game, which is the seventh-best mark in the NHL during the time since his promotion.

The main reason for their improved goals-against average has been a return to form from star netminder Jeremy Swayman, who holds a .904 save percentage in 14 games under Sacco, after posting a save percentage of .884 under Montgomery this season.

Leafs fans are well aware of how good Swayman can be at his best, and he has looked more like his former self of late after a slow start to the year after an ugly contraction negotiation. Swayman has been confirmed as the starter in this matchup.

Over the last 15 games, the Bruins hold an expected-goal share of 55.72%, and have allowed just 23.98 shots against per game, which is the second-best mark in the NHL.

Aside from Hampus Lindholm, who has been out since November 12th, the Bruins are expected to be at full strength for this matchup.

Finding their way into the two-versus-three Atlantic Division matchup and facing a high-quality first round opponent has been part of the causation of Toronto’s numerous first round exits during the ‘core-four’ era. It once again looks likely that avoiding that matchup will provide a boost to the Atlantic Division champion, which should provide plenty of motivation for Toronto in the second half of the season.

If the Leafs have better luck with injuries in the second half of the season, they should have a good chance of emerging as Atlantic Division champions. Matthews has played just 24 games and recorded 23 points, and the Leafs have suffered through one of the worst injury situations in the league this season.

Even if Matthews continues to produce slightly less offensively than expected, his return should help the team fare better defensively at even-strength given the lack of quality play from David Kampf and others filling in as top-six centres recently.

Matthews skated with Matthew Knies and Mitch Marner at today’s morning skate, which allowed head coach Craig Berube to reunite the highly effective second trio of John Tavares, William Nylander and Max Pacioretty.

Philippe Myers was rewarded for his strong recent play with a two-year extension Friday, and is expected to remain on the top pair alongside Morgan Rielly in this matchup.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a .917 save percentage and 2.39 GAA in 18 games played this season, and enters off of a strong performance in 2-1 Toronto’s win over the Islanders on Thursday.

At their current price of +135, the Bruins look to be the team holding more value in terms of a side in this matchup. We have seen time and time again how competitive matches between these two rivals tend to be, and the Bruins should be more than capable of making this matchup into somewhat of a coin-flip based on their tremendous play of late.

A lot of the same thoughts I had when these teams last met, when I picked the Leafs to win a game featuring under 6.5 goals, still look to be true. While Boston has been somewhat better offensively under Sacco, it has still been below average in terms of offensive production, but has been one of the very best teams in the league defensively.

Dating back to last postseason, the last nine matchups between these teams have averaged just 4.55 combined goals. Neither team is playing drastically different stylistically right now than they were in those previous head-to-head matchups, and it seems logical to expect a tight checking game featuring well structured defensive play from both sides.

At -120 or better, I see value in backing this game to feature under six goals.