The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to snap a three-game losing skid when they play their first-ever matchup at the Delta Center against the Utah Hockey Club.

The Leafs are now four points back of the Panthers in the race for the Atlantic Division, and will need a special run over the final 19 regular season games to avoid a first-round matchup with the Tampa Bay Lightning.

Utah holds a strong 6-3-1 record over the last ten games, which has kept it within striking distance of the final Western Conference playoff spot.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While gaining four points on the Florida Panthers (with a game in hand) over a 19-game span does not sound that difficult, it becomes a pretty daunting task when you consider the record the Panthers will likely put up in their final 18 matchups. Whether it means winning the division or not though, the Leafs need to play a sharper game than we have seen in the first two games of this road trip.

Head coach Craig Berube called a team meeting ahead of this matchup, hoping to try and get his side moving in the right direction. The Leafs will play a critical matchup versus the Panthers on Thursday, and this game provides an excellent tune-up, as Utah has quietly been playing some high-quality hockey, and should feature a high level of desperation in this game.

After entering the third period of Saturday’s matchup versus the high-powered Colorado Avalanche with a lead, Toronto failed to secure a point. Even versus an opponent like Colorado, that just can’t happen. The Avalanche held a 4.16 to 1.45 edge in expected goals, outshooting the Leafs 34-21.

Brandon Carlo had an up-and-down performance in his Leafs debut, finishing with a 23.6% expected goal share and even rating in 22:04 of time-on-ice. Morgan Rielly certainly did not do his new partner any favours, and was the greater reason that the unit fared so poorly in a tough matchup.

Carlo’s play has fallen off far more severely this season than many observers seem to realize, it’s not fair to criticize his first performance coming with zero practice time, and a partner who struggled out throughout the contest.

While Carlo will always pass the “eye-test” on the defensive side of the puck, his team is also likely to spend a lot of time playing in the defensive zone in his minutes.

This debate also helps make the case for why Chris Tanev is so good, as he is one of the league’s best shutdown defenders, but features a number of attributes which help his side spend more time attacking.

Tanev has missed the last three games due to an upper-body injury, and his absence has been quite notable.

Over the last 10 games the Leafs hold an expected goal share of 48.47%, and have allowed 3.64 xGA/60, which is the seventh-highest mark in the NHL. They have allowed 3.30 actual goals against per 60 in that span, which has been masked by their lofty output of 3.70 goals for per game.

Joseph Woll has been confirmed as Toronto’s starter in this matchup, and will be looking to bounce-back from two horrible performances against the Pittsburgh Penguins and Vegas Golden Knights. He holds a +9.7. GSAx rating and .905 save percentage in 33 appearances this season.

Looking at recent game betting odds game-by-game involving the Utah Hockey Club and other potential Western Conference Wildcard teams, it is clear that oddsmakers currently view the now healthy Utah roster as the best team in the mix, even if its overall record doesn’t suggest as much.

The team has spent plenty of time playing without two top-four defenders Sean Durzi and John Marino, while top forwards such as Dylan Guenther and Logan Cooley have also missed time.

At full-health and with Karel Vejmelka starting in goal, Utah offers a pretty well rounded roster which features a strong underlying profile. It has some four high-end offensive players in Clayton Keller, Nick Schmaltz, Guenther and Cooley, and a competent blue-line which can help drive play in the right direction.

Over the last 10 games, Utah holds an expected goal share of 54.68%, and as noted, has been highly effective where it counts with a record of 6-3-1.

Vejmelka has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +15.1 GSAx rating and .910 save percentage in 40 appearances this season.

Most Leafs fans are likely quite surprised by the betting prices on this matchup, as they are currently only the slightest of favourites at -107. Utah has been a better side than its overall record suggests, and oddsmakers prices on this game are a pretty clear statement towards that point.

Even still, it would be Leafs or pass for me from a sides perspective. While Utah does feature a better underlying profile, the Leafs are more likely to finish quality chances off at a high-rate with their elite offensive talents. At -107 I’d personally have bet Toronto if Stolarz was starting, but right now it feels dicey to back Woll.

This does look to be a good spot to back Knies recording a point at -108. Toronto’s top line has been highly productive of late, as both of Auston Matthews and Mitch Marner are in tremendous form offensively, and continue to be well complimented by Knies. Knies has recorded six points over the last six games, with a single point in five of those matchups.