The final Battle of Ontario of the 2024-25 regular season will take place Saturday evening when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.

Whenever these two rivals meet head-to-head the Senators seem to elevate their game, as they have won the first two matchups of this season, and are now 6-3-1 versus Toronto overall dating back to the start of the 2022-23 season.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Thanks to their current five-game winning steak, the Senators have pulled away in the wild card race, and appear destined to finally snap their seven-year playoff drought. Based on current betting odds, Ottawa holds a 94.75 percent chance of making the playoffs.

That percentage may seem a little high to some observers, but there are two factors at play. The Sens’ hold the top wild card spot, as well as a a five-point cushion over any team in the race. Oddsmakers also power-rate them as the top-team in the mix based on recent betting lines, which seems entirely fair.

The Senators have suffered through worse than average luck with injuries this season, but have found success while finally playing at close to full-strength recently. They are 6-3-1 over the last 10, and hold an expected goal share of 50.31% across all-strengths.

Last season Ottawa’s overall process did appear to be solid, but was undone by a 31st-ranked save percentage of .884. It seemed quite reasonable to expect the addition of former Vezina winner Linus Ullmark would prove to be highly impactful. Ullmark has been dominant recently, after a slow start to the campaign which was followed by a lengthy absence due to injury.

In his last six start, Ullmark holds a .913 save percentage, a 2.80 GAA, with a record of 5-0-1. Senators head coach Travis Green confirmed Ullmark will start Saturday.

GM Steve Staios made a bold move at the deadline dealing away injury plagued goalscorer Josh Norris in favour of Dylan Cozens. While Cozens had struggled mightily with the Buffalo Sabres this season, buying low on struggling Sabres skaters has been an excellent strategy in recent years, and it has worked out tremendously so far for the Senators.

Cozens has put up four points in his first four games with Ottawa, and brought a physical edge with 20 hits. He has overtaken the role as second-line center, and has been highly effective playing alongside David Perron and Drake Batherson. In 33.5 minutes of play together the trio holds a 60 percent expected goal share, and outscored opponents 4-0 where it counts.

Brady Tkachuk missed the third period of Thursday’s matchup versus the Boston Bruins, and is listed as day-to-day with a hip injury. Tkachuk will play Saturday, Green confirmed.

The Leafs suffered another disappointing loss on Thursday, as the Florida Panthers once again exerted some dominance in a game featuring a playoff feel. Florida held an 11-6 edge in high danger scoring chances, and led 2.61 to 2.21 in expected goal share.

A number of the Leafs’ greatest causations towards their numerous early playoff eliminations were on full display in the disappointing loss.

The Leafs’ top-line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies was dominant in terms of chances for and against, but failed to break through where it counts, which is becoming a tired storyline in Toronto’s most critical matchups. They held a 90.9 percent expected goal share, and allowed zero high danger chances against in 10:27 of even-strength play.

The majority of NHL teams struggle to handle the Panthers’ furious, well organized forecheck, and that was the case on Thursday. The Leafs’ defensive core struggled to create controlled zone-exits, which has been a problem throughout their recent playoff eliminations, and in a number of recent losses.

Toronto’s penalty kill was also highly ineffective, allowing two critical goals, which was ultimately the difference in the game. Over the last 10 games the Leafs’ penalty kill has succeeded on just 70 percent of opportunities, and in three games since the trade deadline has killed off just 63.6 percent of opposing power plays.

Based on Saturday’s morning skate, head coach Craig Berube appears to be shaking up his offensive units.

Knies — Matthews* — Domi
McMann — Tavares — Marner
Nylander — Laughton — Järnkrok
Lorentz — Holmberg — Robertson

Matthews was absent from Saturday’s morning skate, but will play against the Senators.

Anthony Stolarz has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds a +15.4 GSAx rating and .920 save percentage in 25 games played this season.

This matchup offers yet another chance for the Leafs to prove themselves versus a red-hot opponent, after coming up short in all of their recent matchups against high-quality sides being the Vegas Golden Knights, Colorado Avalanche and Panthers.

Considering that the Panthers are the hottest team in the NHL right now, based off both record and underlying results, Thursday’s performance was quite respectable. It seems likely to expect another urgent performance from the Leafs in this matchup, as they look to get their game moving back in the right direction.

As the Senators have clearly been in better form and have dominated this head-to-head matchup, it’s no surprise to see the price for Ottawa to win this game has ticked down to +124 after opening at +140.

While I don’t see much value backing either side to win this game, it does look like a good opportunity to target Max Domi having a productive night. Domi had one of his best games of the season on Thursday, and was rewarded with a goal. He has been elevated to the top line alongside Knies and Matthews, and his price to record a point does not seem to be adjusted enough given his new role.

At +112 I see value backing Domi to record a point, and would bet it down to +107.