The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to extend their winning streak to three games when they take on the New York Rangers Thursday evening at Madison Square Garden.

Thanks to their win over the Colorado Avalanche on Wednesday, the Leafs are now tied with the Florida Panthers atop the Atlantic Division. They are betting underdogs in this game in this back-to-back spot, as they face-off versus a Rangers side which will be desperate to bounce back from a pathetic showing in their most recent matchup versus the Calgary Flames.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

Wednesday’s win was was far from an oil painting, but there were some positives to point towards as the Leafs managed to best one of the NHL’s hottest teams. Joseph Woll was fantastic in goal, stopping 38-of-39 shots faced on route to a third consecutive win. While Colorado outshot Toronto heavily and had more possession, high danger scoring chances were even at 15 apiece, and the Leafs actually lead on expected goals 3.84 to 3.32.

The Leafs top line of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies fared quite well while spending plenty of time against Colorado’s top stars, generating 1.54 expected goals while allowing 1.30 expected goals against. They had some particularly dominant sequences in the third, and could have put the game out of reach if not for some excellent play from Mackenzie Blackwood.

While it was a strong showing from the Leafs top-line, the other three units did not fare nearly as well, and head coach Craig Berube was searching for more effective combinations throughout the game. Toronto will not hold a morning skate in this back-to-back spot, so we may not learn how Berube will adjust his bottom three lines until warm-ups.

These two sides last met on February 28th at Madison Square Garden, and the Leafs were able to hang on for a 3-2 win. Toronto was priced at -123 to win that matchup, which was a price I believed was worth a bet at the time. With that in mind, it’s interesting to consider the Leafs are currently priced at +116 in the rematch less than three weeks later.

Part of that price adjustment obviously comes down to the fact that the Leafs are playing the second of a back-to-back, but it is also based on the fact that Toronto’s process has not been very convincing lately. Over the last 10 games it owns a 48.17% expected goal share and has allowed 3.43 xGA/60.

Analytics aren’t everything, but it has been visually apparent the Leafs are struggling to defend at the level we saw earlier on in the year. The underlying numbers do seem to profiling the other Stanley Cup favourites accurately right now, as eight of the ten teams that rank top 10 in xGA/60 over the last 10 games are also considered among the 11 most likely Stanley Cup winners.

Anthony Stolarz is expected to start in goal after resting on Wednesday. He holds a +14.6 GSAx rating and .918 save percentage in 26 games this season.

The Rangers playoff hopes took a massive hit on Tuesday, as they were completely dominated on home ice by a Flames side which was playing in the second leg of a back-to-back. The final score was not indicative of the actual game, and it was one of the most disconnected performances from any team this season, in a critical spot on home ice no less.

Expect the Rangers to display a drastically higher level of intensity in this matchup, after a humiliating outing on Tuesday. It was their performance against the Calgary Flames which was particularly awful, and the Rangers really haven’t looked overly sharp recently. It’s becoming more apparent that head coach Peter Laviolette can not find tactical adjustments to power his side to more convincing play.

Over the last 10 games, the Rangers have generated just 3.06 xGF/60, and hold an expected goal share of 49.96%. While it is fair to critique Laviolette for his team’s lacklustre play, it’s also clear that the roster lacks offensive depth right now.

The Rangers offered a third-line of Chris Kreider, Sam Carrick and Juuso Parssinen, as well as a fourth-line of Brett Berard, Joey Brodzinski and Matt Rempe against the Flames. Over the last seven games, the Rangers’ bottom-six has combined for one goal.

Igor Shesterkin is expected to start in goal in this matchup. While Shesterkin’s game has been the target of criticism at times this season, the numbers depict that he has been quite excellent overall. He has consistently been asked to handle a ton of high quality scoring chances, which is masking the true level of his play. He holds a +20.1 GSAx rating in 51 appearances, which ranks fourth among all goaltenders.

Though Toronto’s recent play doesn’t exactly scream tight-checking hockey, this particular matchup looks to have the makings of a lower event game.

New York will be desperate to author a much sharper performance in this matchup, and give its spectacular goaltender a more respectable chance to win. Laviolette will be preaching layers behind the puck, and safer plays in transition to attempt to minimize mistakes versus a high-powered Leafs attack.

While the Leafs’ game hasn’t exactly reflected it recently, we know Craig Berube was brought in to enhance the team’s work-rate and level of defensive accountability. Part of the team’s awful defensive results of late has come down to the number of elite offensive opponents faced, and right now the Rangers attack looks fairly muted, which should help Toronto insulate Stolarz more effectively.

At +102 I see value backing the total to stay under 5.5 goals, and would bet it to -108.