The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to bounce back from a humiliating loss when they host the Philadelphia Flyers on Tuesday.

In their last matchup, the Leafs held a 2-0 lead over the 30th-ranked Nashville Predators, before allowing five unanswered goals. As the Florida Panthers have also cooled off recently, Toronto are still just two points back in the division race, and holds one game in hand.

The Leafs are 2-0 versus the Flyers this season, and hold a 71 percent chance of winning this matchup based on current betting odds.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Due to a league worst 2-9-1 record in the month of March, the Flyers now rank 28th in points percentage. While their goaltending has remained downright horrific, it also appears that head coach John Tortorella’s side has regressed in other areas of the game.

Over the entirety of the season, the Flyers rank 13th in expected goal share, and rank third with an xGA/60 rating of 2.83. Defensively, they generally looked quite solid earlier on in the campaign, and it did seem entirely fair to view their league-worst goaltending as the main causation towards their poor results.

In 12 games through March, the Flyers hold a 46.61 percent expected goal share, and have generated just 2.53 xGA/60. Their goaltenders have combined for a save percentage of .854 in that span, leading to a goals against average of 3.83. They also hold a league worst -24 goal differential of -24 in that span.

Perhaps a level of complacency has crept into the Flyers approach, as the team has looked to be simply going through the motions at times. That was certainly the case in Sunday’s 7-4 loss versus the Chicago Blackhawks, as goaltender Ivan Fedotov was part of the problem.

The Flyers continue to play a defensive style of hockey, even if many of their final score-lines do not entirely suggest that is the case. Their conservative style combined with a lack of high-end offensive talent has led to some horrible offensive results recently, as they have scored just 1.67 goals per game this month.

Sean Couturier ranks first on the team with eight points over the last 12 games, while Matvei Michkov ranks second with seven points. Owen Tippett has been in horrible form offensively, with just two points over the last 12 games while skating on the third line.

Samuel Ersson is expected to get the start in goal. With a -14.2 GSAx rating in 41 appearances and .886 save percentage he has still been the Flyers’ best goaltender, despite still ranking bottom-ten in all categories among goaltenders that have made more than 10 starts.

While the Flyers have been downright awful recently, Toronto can not afford to take this game lightly. Games at Scotiabank Arena always seem to get a little extra attention from cellar-dwellers like the Flyers, who hold five Ontario-born skaters on the roster. The Leafs gave away two points that were there for the taking in Nashville, and that could be the difference in winning or losing the division.

The Leafs held a high intensity practice on Monday, and do appear to be making some changes to the lineup ahead of this game.

Scott Laughton was elevated back onto the third line alongside Max Domi and Nick Robertson, while head coach Craig Berube offered a new-look fourth line of Steven Lorentz, Pontus Holmberg and Calle Jarnkrok.

There’s no sugar coating that Laughton has had an entirely disappointing start to his tenure as a Leaf, but it likely has not helped that his role and line-mates have been changed in almost every matchup. He was brought in to solidify the third line, and it would seem wise to give him a few games to try and find some chemistry on that unit.

Toronto is just 5-5-1 in the month of March, and while they have played a lot of high quality opponents, their game seems to be regressing at the wrong time. They hold an expected goal share of just 46.57 percent in March, and have allowed 3.38 xGA/60 in that span.

One of the greatest positives from this sub-par stretch of play from the Leafs has been Auston Matthews, with put up six goals and 14 points in his last 11 matchups. Since the 4 Nations Face-Off, Matthews has averaged four shots on goal and 0.76 expected goals per game.

Joseph Woll is expected to get the start in this matchup. Thanks to a strong stretch of play from Woll, it’s currently looking far more debatable which goaltender should get the start in Game One of the playoffs, though chances are unless it’s a shockingly smooth playoff run both goaltenders will get some starts. Woll holds a +13.4 GSAx rating and .907 save percentage in 37 appearances.

At their current price of -253, the Leafs are among the heaviest favourites they have been at any point in this season in this matchup. While the Flyers’ play has fallen off badly and they continue to receive horrific goaltending, it seems like a dicey proposition to lay that large of a number on Toronto right now. The first two matchups of the season between these teams were very competitive, and this could be a sneaky spot for the Flyers to author a more spirited performance.

There does look to be value backing Matthews to score at -105 though, as arguably the game’s best goalscorer seems to be back in top form. He’s put up six goals over the last 11 games, and has generated more than enough chances to suggest he can continue scoring at this rate.

Ersson has been one of the league’s worst goaltenders this season, and if Matthews gets some decent looks in this game he should have a good chance of finding the back of the net.