The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to avoid a letdown when they return home from an undefeated four-game road trip to host the San Jose Sharks on Monday, who are ranked 32nd in the NHL and have lost eight straight games.

The Leafs enter this matchup in the midst of a five-game winning streak, which has propelled them back into first place in the Atlantic division. The Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning are both on fire as well, and continue to make earning the top seed a challenge.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favourite betting angles below.

It’s been another gruelling year for the Sharks, who enter this matchup with a record of 15-37-9 overall, and 6-19-7 on the road. To frame their season optimistically, their current point percentage of .320 is an improvement upon the .287 point percentage held in the 2023-24 season.

Another positive for the Sharks has been the excellent play of Macklin Celebrini. Celebrini has been even better than expected, particularly playing without the puck, and is the betting favourite to win the Calder Trophy. Other young skaters such as William Eklund and Will Smith are also having strong seasons, which helps to alleviate the pain of another pure rebuilding season for the Sharks fanbase, as the key pieces of the future do look to be trending in the right direction.

While the Sharks losing streak has now hit eight games, they have looked quite scrappy throughout their current road trip. They were arguably the better team in a one-goal loss to the Calgary Flames last Sunday, before a painful overtime loss the following night against the Winnipeg Jets. They also managed to take the Montreal Canadiens to overtime on Thursday, and suffered a 5-3 loss versus a highly desperate Ottawa Senators side on Saturday.

The underlying results agree with the idea that the Sharks have been competitive during their recent road trip, as they hold a 50.08% expected goal share, and have generated 3.21 xGF/60.

It’s clear that head coach Ryan Warsofsky’s side is still competing hard and attempting to play the game the right way, but a lack of quality NHL talent has been quite tough to overcome. Especially because the club continues to receive some of the league’s worst goaltending from Alexandar Georgiev and Vitek Vanecek, who have combined for a league worst .859 save percentage across the last 15 games.

Georgiev has been confirmed as the starting goaltender in this matchup. He holds an .877 save percentage and -12.6 GSAx in 34 appearances this season.

The Leafs are at a rest disadvantage in this matchup, as they played Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh, and will be playing for the third time in four nights. During the core-four era they have built a reputation for playing down to weaker competition, and this game certainly has the makings of a potential letdown if the Leafs do not bring the appropriate level of intensity.

Throughout Toronto’s unbeaten road-trip there may not have been one game in which you would say they excelled in every faucet of the game, but it did illustrate the team’s ability win games in a variety of different ways.

Joseph Woll was not at his best yesterday in Pittsburgh, but was bailed out by a dominant offensive performance, as the Leafs once again got offensive contributions from three different lines. Toronto was able to grind out a win at Madison Square Garden thanks to a solid defensive showing coupled with an excellent goaltending performance from Anthony Stolarz, after using a combination of strong offensive play and quality goaltending to get a win over the Boston Bruins on Tuesday.

Calle Jarnkrok is expected to make his season debut in this matchup, and will likely play on the third line alongside Connor Dewar and David Kampf. Jarnkrok could conceivably provide some depth scoring and alter GM Brad Treliving’s desire to acquire another bottom-six forward at the deadline, though the 33 year-old has recorded only three points in 18 playoff games with Toronto.

Head coach Craig Berube will presumably keep his other three offensive units intact, as each unit has been firing on all cylinders. The Leafs top trio of Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner and Matthew Knies had another strong performance Sunday, combining for two goals and five points.

While Woll did not have a quality start, the Leafs also weren’t at their best defensively in Sunday’s matchup. They allowed 3.68 xGA/60 versus a modest Penguins offence, which was playing in leg two of a back-to-back. Playing without shutdown defender Chris Tanev certainly didn’t help, and Tanev will remain sidelined in this matchup.

Stolarz is expected to get the start in this matchup after serving as the backup yesterday. He holds a league leading .927 save percentage, and a +16.2 GSAx rating in 21 appearances this season.

The Leafs have done a much better job of earning wins versus non-playoff teams of late, which could be the reason they finally earn another division win, and avoid a nightmare round one matchup. Even still, this spot could end up being a little dicier than oddsmakers are expecting, as the Leafs are one of the largest betting favorites of the season.

The Sharks have been right there with all four of their opponents during this road-trip. Their solid underlying results from the four games line up with the eye-test, as both suggest they are on the brink of finally earning another win. With a rest advantage versus a Leafs team returning from a long road-trip, they could potentially catch Toronto off guard early on.

There looks to be value backing the Sharks to surprise the Leafs early on and steal the first period, a bet currently priced at a hefty number of +228. If the first period finishes tied, the bet will be graded as a push.