The Toronto Maple Leafs will look to put a halt to what would be the worst collapse in franchise history Thursday when they play Game 6 of their series versus the Ottawa Senators.

Since 2017, the Leafs are 1-13 in elimination games. Their awful results historically in this type of matchup certainly are not making life any easier versus a Senators side that likely feels as though they are playing with house money at this point, as the pressure from one of the NHL’s most passionate fanbases has to be weighing heavily on the team at this point.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

Easier said than done, but the Leafs need to find a way to reset after back-to-back losses and accept that being up 3-2 heading into Game 6 is still a good situation to be in. Pivoting back to Ottawa for this matchup may not be the worst thing, either, as playing on home ice in front of a quiet, nervous crowd in Game 5 did not seem advantageous.

It’s tough to ignore how greatly this roster has struggled offensively in the later stages of series historically. After their shutout loss in Game 5, the Leafs have now averaged just 1.91 goals per game in Games 5-7 of the last five postseasons. They have played against a number of high-quality defensive teams in recent history, as will typically be the case this time of year, and those teams have generally been able to shut down the Leafs’ top stars in the late stages of each series.

Due to their inability to produce in elimination games, the Leafs likely feel as though they can not afford to make any mistakes, which is a tough way to play the game. Breakdowns and unlucky bounces are going to happen, just as they do in the regular season, but typically, Toronto is a team that has the firepower to overcome those situations somewhat often.

After being a massive strength earlier on in the series, the Leafs’ power play has once again become a flaw that could prevent them from making it to the second round. They failed to convert on a four-minute opportunity in overtime of Game 4 and end the series, and failed to capitalize on three opportunities in Game 5.

The Leafs have not yet named a starting goaltender in Game 6, but it would make sense for them to stick with Stolarz in this matchup. He’s been one of the best goaltenders in the league this season and has played fine in the series overall. Switching to Joseph Woll just for the sake of change feels like engaging in panic mode when goaltending has not been a problem.

The Senators were doing a perfectly acceptable job in even-strength play early on in this series, but dug an 0-3 hole as they were outperformed on special teams and in goal. Linus Ullmark has found a higher level of play, and they have cleaned things up on the penalty kill, and suddenly, they return home with the opportunity to knot the series at three and put the Leafs into a nightmarish spot.

In the first five games of the series, the Senators hold a 51.31% expected goal share at even strength and a 50% expected goal share overall. The Leafs held a 14-8 edge in high-danger scoring chances in Game 5, but the Senators were able to convert on their best looks and rode an excellent performance from Ullmark to victory.

From a territorial perspective, Ottawa did not fare overly well in Game 5, as all three defensive pairings were outplayed, statistically speaking. However, it did do a good job of preventing true defensive collapses, as it limited chances coming after passes through the Royal Road and did a solid job of clearing out the net front overall.

During the ‘core-four’ era, the Leafs’ top offensive lines have generally fared quite well in terms of controlling the overall run of play in elimination games, but have struggled to create true grade ‘A’ chances on the interior and have had a hard time finishing. Toronto’s top stars will likely be able to generate their fair share of offensive zone time in this matchup, and it will be on the Senators to remain structurally sound in those sequences, as we saw in Game 5.

Ullmark stopped 2.70 goals above expected in Game 4, and elevated his save percentage to .883 in the series. The former Vezina Winner has not had much success historically in the playoffs, but the Leafs may have helped him get his confidence at the right time entering this matchup.

It seems as though a large faction of the Leafs fanbase and hockey world overall is already counting on Toronto to choke in this series, though all of the games have been quite closely contested, and realistically, being up 3-2 is still a good situation.

Many fans may not want to bet against their team, which I respect, and it’s not my personal recommendation to bet this. But it does seem important to note that the Senators are still priced at +290 to win the series, which is a great price if you are a believer that the Leafs have already blown the series.

The Leafs’ top stars failed to produce once again in another elimination game on Tuesday, and the pressure to avoid an unthinkable collapse has to be mounting in the locker room. The team’s history is clearly working against their ability to play free at this point, and it’s an instance where experience is certainly not an asset.

The prices on sides in this game look fair to me, as aside from the arguments that historically Toronto has been horrible in this type of matchup, it’s hard to suggest the Sens deserve to be a favourite.

Personally, I would prefer to bet on Ottawa to win the series at +290 rather than back them winning tonight at -118, as if the Leafs lose tonight, the pressure of a do-or-die Game 7 on home ice could be crippling for this team.

My favourite play from this matchup remains backing the first period to feature under 1.5 total goals at -128, a bet we cashed with ease in Game 4.

In the highest-pressure situations, attention to detail defensively always seems to rise, and players tend to err on the side of making safe, reliable plays to avoid costly mistakes. Ullmark has found his game at the right time for the Senators, and it’s still fair to have plenty of faith in Stolarz. And as outlined, this Leafs core has generally defended well enough to win in recent elimination games, but has had a really tough time generating meaningful totals offensively.