Given their lack of success in elimination games in recent postseasons, the Toronto Maple Leafs will be desperate to end the Battle of Ontario on Tuesday when they return home for Game 5.

Despite losing Game 4, oddsmakers still give the Leafs a 90 percent chance of winning the series based on the current series prices. If the Senators can steal this win and force a Game 6 in Ottawa, though, it could certainly put the Leafs into a nerve-wracking situation, as the pressure to avoid a horrific collapse would be significant.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Senators finally found the right combination of timely scoring and goaltending in Game 4, earning their first playoff win since 2017. It was certainly not the most dominant performance from Ottawa, as it was outshot 34-to-21 and generated only 2.71 expected goals to the Leafs’ total of 3.56, but given how close the last three games in this series have been, Ottawa was due for a bounce at the right time.

That came in the form of a fairly innocuous-looking point shot in overtime from Jake Sanderson, which was flicked into a tricky spot for Anthony Stolarz to see given the mass of bodies out front.

Outside of Game 1, this series has been quite evenly contested from a statistical perspective and in terms of the actual scorelines. In even-strength play the Senators hold a 53.35 percent expected goal share, but the Leafs own a 51.37 percent expected goal share across all strengths, as they have been the superior team in special teams play.

A very slight edge in even-strength play is not typically going to result in wins this time of year if you’re losing the special teams battle and receiving lesser play in goal than your opponent. That point has been well proven in this series, as the Senators’ first win came in a game where they did not carry much of the play overall but received a strong performance from Linus Ullmark and recorded a timely power play goal.

Ullmark stopped 0.56 goals above expected in Game 4 and had his best performance of the series. Chances are the Leafs will generate another strong output of chances offensively, and Ottawa will likely need its former Vezina winner to be sharp to steal a win on the road.

Sanderson has averaged close to 28 minutes in this series and has spent the majority of the time playing against the Leafs’ highly potent top six. The Senators have a key ingredient to playoff success in Sanderson, who is a true number-one defensemen, but the rest of the defense core is somewhat of a question mark.

If it were any other team, returning home for Game 5 with a 3-1 lead in the series would not be a situation drawing much concern. As outlined, the Leafs still have a 90 percent chance of winning this series based on current odds, and if you believed this postseason would be different under head coach Craig Berube, there is zero reason to change your thought process currently.

Playoff hockey is highly volatile, and you’re going to lose some games in which you offer a respectable performance overall. That was the case in Game 4, as the Leafs gave them an honest chance of sealing the series and, from a process perspective, did not take a step backwards relative to the first three games of the series.

Scoring goals in critical moments in the late stages of series has been a tall order for this Leafs roster in recent years. The ‘core four’ has had a great series overall and combined for five points in Game 3. If they had not failed historically in elimination games, their performance in Game 4 probably would not have drawn any criticism whatsoever.

This game provides an excellent opportunity for the Leafs’ top stars to prove this year will be different and earn some rest prior to a likely series with the Florida Panthers.

Over the last five postseasons, the Leafs have scored just 2.09 goals per game in Games 5, 6, and 7 over a sample of 11 games. Elimination games tend to be more tightly contested from a defensive perspective, and the Leafs have historically held their opponents to low totals in this type of matchup with this core but have failed to generate enough offensively.

Stolarz will get the start in this matchup and has had a strong start to his playoff career with the Leafs, posting a .902 save percentage in the first four games of the series.

It does not yet feel like the time to panic for the Leafs, who authored a respectable performance in Game 4 despite the losing result. Even a comparable effort here on home ice could be enough to get it done with more potent finishing, but at -175 there doesn’t seem to be much value in backing the Leafs to end the series tonight when the last three games have been so competitive.

This does seem like a good time to buy into the trend of elimination games involving this Leafs core being tight-checking, low-event affairs. Both teams will likely protect the middle of the ice effectively in this matchup and try to minimize mistakes early on in a high-pressure spot.

Special teams have played a key role in this series, but it wouldn’t be surprising to see the refs call things less tightly from here on out, and at this point in the series players will be more focused on avoiding penalties than attempting to set a physical tone.

At -115, I see value backing the first period to feature less than two goals, as it seems likely that we will see a cagey start to this elimination game from both sides.