The Florida Panthers found a way to earn a critical win in a hotly contested Game 3, and will look to knot the series at two on home ice Sunday evening. The Panthers earned their first win of the series thanks to a fortuitous bounce on Brad Marchand’s overtime winner, but it would certainly be fair to say that a 2-1 scoreline in the series is quite reasonable, and this Eastern Conference semi-final has not disappointed thus far.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

In a spot that has historically proven to be quite difficult across the entire NHL, the Leafs offered a performance to be proud of in Game 3, despite the losing result. The defending Stanley Cup champs were never going to be an easy out in this series and were always going to bring a high-quality performance into a near do-or-die Game 3, and perhaps the only true disappointment is that they blew a two-goal lead in the game.

The Leafs were right there in Game 3 and do not have any reason to panic entering this matchup. The eye test seems to run in line with the statistics regarding how Game 3 was contested and suggests Toronto had an honest chance of stealing a game versus the defending champs in a really tough spot.

Both teams generated 13 high-danger scoring chances, but the Panthers had a little more offensive zone time and were able to manage 36 shots compared to the Leafs’ total of 31. Head coach Craig Berube’s system is not based on outchancing the opposition entirely, but on limiting true defensive breakdowns, and in that regard the teams were quite equal in Game 3.

The Leafs’ top offensive stars continued their torrid production in Game 3 and have had a fantastic postseason overall. It seems unfair to continue talking ‘core-four’ as Matthew Knies has been so good, but however you want to break it down, the team’s top two offensive lines have been dominant this postseason.

Including all combinations of the second line used this postseason, the Leafs’ top two offensive units have played to a goal differential of 18-6. A 75% goal share from your top two units should always mean strong results for the team, and that has been the case for the Leafs thus far this postseason.

Auston Matthews missed Sunday’s morning skate, as he may be playing through a lingering injury. While it would be great to see Matthews scoring goals at his typical rates, it does seem a little harsh to criticize someone centering a top line that has outscored opponents 9 to 3 despite spending plenty of time going head-to-head versus the opposition’s top stars.

Joseph Woll will get the start once again in tonight’s matchup. While Woll has not been bad by any means, it would probably be fair to say that the Leafs would have found a way to get a win in Game 3 if Anthony Stolarz was in goal. Woll holds a -1.1 GSAx rating and .869 save percentage so far this postseason.

The Panthers benefitted from a favourable bounce in overtime to earn their first win of the series, but they were probably due for such a break considering their overall edge in terms of shots on goal and shot attempts throughout the first three games. The Panthers hold a 52.84% expected goal share in the series and have allowed only 25.43 shots on goal per 60.

That’s a fairly minor edge in terms of run of play considering that the Leafs have done a fairly good job of staying composed in the defensive zone and limiting odd-man rushes. Sergei Bobrovsky has not been overly sharp in this series, but the Leafs’ top offensive stars have been getting a lot of high-quality chances, which certainly has not helped his numbers.

Bobrovsky holds a -4.2 GSAx rating and .875 save percentage this postseason.

Seth Jones has had a surprisingly strong start to the postseason overall, but the Leafs were able to expose the Panthers’ second pairing in Game 3, and it could be a weakness moving forward. Jones and Niko Mikkola held a 39.7% expected goal share in Game 3.

Florida’s top pairing of Gustav Forsling and Aaron Ekblad was entirely dominant in Game 3 and will likely continue to be the best pairing from either side in this series. While that duo will likely continue to thrive, the depth of the Leafs’ defensive core looks to be an advantage right now.

The Panthers have no skaters on the IR, and appear to be rolling out the same lineup in this matchup.

In a Game 3 where the Panthers likely played at close to their absolute highest level, the Leafs were still able to hang around and give themselves a strong opportunity to earn a win. Toronto likely will not have lost any confidence from Friday’s loss, and it seems likely it will be able to offer a similar performance in this matchup, which would mean it is the more valuable side from a betting perspective.

My losing pick on the Leafs to win at +190 in Game 3 snapped a six-pick winning streak for these articles, but my opinion would be that considering the price we got, it was a perfectly reasonable bet. Though the Leafs are lesser underdogs in this game, priced at +165 currently, Florida still looks to be overvalued as the Leafs appear to be playing at a highly comparable level.