The Toronto Maple Leafs will host Kyle Dubas and the Pittsburgh Penguins for its home opener Saturday night at Scotiabank Arena. The Leafs won two of last season’s three matchups, but have won just five of 12 matchups versus Pittsburgh over the last four seasons.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes, as well as outline my favorite betting angles bets below.

The Penguins bounced back from a horrid home opener versus the New York Rangers with a 6-3 victory over the Detroit Red Wings o on Thursday. In their opening two matchups they have played to an xGF% of 40.4, and allowed 4.66 expected goals per 60. They have also allowed 38.8 shots against per 60.

The Penguins will prove to be an interesting side to watch early on this season, as they look to bounce-back after an ugly 2023-24 campaign. They are currently priced at +130 to sneak into the playoffs, so oddsmakers aren’t exactly counting on their aging core turning it around.

In a year which featured healthy campaigns from their aging core, the Penguins still generated just 3.09 goals per game last season (18th in NHL). Kyle Dubas made bets on underachieving offensive skaters in Anthony Beauvillier, Cody Glass, and Jesse Puljujarvi to help solidify the teams offensive depth, which was a clear flaw last season. He also traded for highly-touted prospect Rutger McGroarty.

The Penguins’ powerplay succeeded only 15.3% of the time last season. Given the talent the top unit is offering, that mark was pretty surprising to most of the hockey world. Improving on that flaw could be one way for the Penguins to improve year-over-year.

Penguins head coach Mike Sullivan confirmed that Joel Blomqvist will start Saturday.

The Leafs could be without John Tavares for this matchup, who missed the morning skate with illness. Whether Tavares misses this matchup or not, the other three members of the “Core Four” are due for some production as Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner, and William Nylander have all gone pointless through the opening two matchups of the season.

After leading the lead in posts/crossbars hit last season, Matthews has picked up where he left off having already hit two this season. Matthew Knies also hit the crossbar on opening night versus Montreal.

Through two games the Leafs top line of Marner, Matthews, and Knies has generated 5.75 xG/60, and holds a 65.5% expected goal share. While those are positive notes, nobody is going to make excuses for Marner and Matthews for long, and Knies was clearly the best of the trio versus the Devils.

Bobby McMann and Steven Lorentz stood out from the bottom six versus New Jersey, and it looks like McMann could be rewarded with a spot on the second line if Tavares does miss this matchup based on the morning skate.

Craig Berube looks to be keeping his defensive lines the same as we saw in that matchup.

Anthony Stolarz is expected to start this matchup, and was solid in the Leafs season opening loss to Montreal. He finished with a +20.1 GSAx last season with a .925 save %.

The Penguins look to be a fairly boom-or-bust side in the early going of this season. It wouldn’t surprise me to see Mike Sullivan end up as the season’s first coach fired, but I also could see the Penguins bouncing back offensively and hang around the Wildcard race. The prices on sides and totals look fair to me as a result, though I am tempted by the over and would bet it if +100 for over 6.5 became available.

The Leafs top line has looked strong overall this season, and I think they will own plenty of the play tonight and breakthrough with some production. I would not talk anyone off of betting Matthews to score or go over 1.5 points, but the numbers aren’t quite where I was hoping they would be.

Considering how good Knies has looked so far, I think a good way to target the idea that the top unit will breakthrough with some production is by backing Knies to record a point at +110, and a smaller bet on him to score at +310.